244 research outputs found
Proceedings of the 2004 first annual DG ECFIN research conference on “Business Cycles and Growth in Europeâ€
No full textIn October 2004, the Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs (ECFIN) held its first annual research conference. Its theme was “Business Cycles and Growth in Europeâ€. The thirteen papers presented are collected here in revised form in two volumes as Economic Paper number 227, 1/2 and 2/2. Some of the contributions are followed by comments made by the discussants. The conference was subdivided into four main sessions:Differences and commonalities in business cycles and growth: evidence from the EU and US; International transmission of business cycles; Business cycles in Europe; Business cycles and growth: theory and evidence from old and new Member States. The papers presented here are printed in the order of the programme.business cycle, growth, conference, dg ecfin, Lars Jonung, research conference 2004,
Twin Engines of Growth
No full textWe develop an endogenous growth model in which new technology and new skills are bounded complements they complement each other up to a point, but beyond this the impact of each factor is constrained by the level of the other. As a result, both technological progress and human capital accumulation are necessary for sustained productivity growth, but neither alone is sufficient. Rapid technological progress generates increased returns to education and encourages each generation to spend more time in school. Rapid human capital accumulation increases the feasibility and profitability of innovation and encourages the private business sector to allocate more resources towards R&D. Our model has important implications for the effectiveness of alternative growth promoting policies, for the interpretation of the empirical relationship between growth and schooling, and for the relationship between growth and intergenerational wage dispersion. Keywords: Endogenous technological change, endogenous human capital accumulation, minimum skill requirements, bounded complementarity.Endogenous technological change, endogenous human capital accumulation, minimum skill requirements, bounded complementarity.
Twin Engines of Growth
No full textWe develop an endogenous growth model in which new technology and new skills are bounded complements -- they complement each other to a point, but beyond this the impact of each factor is constrained by the level of the other. As a result, both technological progress and human capital accumulation are necessary for sustained productivity growth, but neither alone is sufficient. Rapid technological progress generates increased returns to education and encourages each generation to spend more time at school. Rapid human capital accumulation increases the feasability and profitability of innovation and encourages the private business sector to allocate more resources towards R&D. Our model has important implications for the effectiveness of alternative growth-promoting policies, for the interpretation of the empirical relationship between growth and schooling, and for the relationship between growth and intergenerational wage dispersion. Nous développons un modèle de croissance endogène dans lequel la nouvelle technologie et les nouvelles compétences sont des compléments limités -- elles se complémentent jusqu'à un certain point, au delà duquel l'impact de chaque facteur est contraint par le niveau de l'autre. Alors, le progrès technologique et l'accumulation de capital humain sont nécessaires les deux pour une croissance soutenue de la productivité, mais aucun n'est suffisant seul. Un progrès technologique rapide génère des rendements croissants de l'éducation et encourage chaque génération à consacrer plus de temps à l'école. Une accumulation rapide de capital humain accroît la faisabilité et la profitabilité de l'innovation et encourage le secteur privé à allouer plus de ressources en recherche et développement. Notre modèle a des implications importantes pour la relation empirique entre croissance et éducation, et pour la relation entre croissance et dispersion intergénérationnelle des salaires.Endogenous technological change, endogenous human capital accumulation, minimum skill requirements, bounded complementarity
The National Pensions Reserve Fund: Pitfalls and Opportunities
No full textThis paper analyses some key issues concerning the new National Pensions Reserve Fund. We briefly review the basic demographic and economic trends that motivate the establishment of the Fund. We consider the pitfalls facing the operation of the Fund and argue that a complete ban on domestic investment would minimise the politicisation problem. At least initially, the Fund should adopt an aggressive investment strategy, with a large equity allocation. We further argue that asset allocation should take into account the co-variation of returns with domestic macroeconomic and fiscal variables. Finally, we discuss the organisational structure of the Fund and its implications for optimal performance.
Unknown Language
No full textLong before the collapse of the Information Age, in the twelfth century since the appearance of the prophet Christ, young Hildegard of Bingen finds grace in the ruins of her medieval world. After the great cataclysm and the Angelic power struggle that follows, Hildegard flees the City of God and embarks upon a pilgrimage towards the kingdom of the poor. In this story of survival and miracles, Hildegard encounters love, both queer and divine, and great peril. On the planet Avaaz, in a sea cave with cracked amethyst walls, Pinky Agarwalia finds fragments of a beautiful codex thought to be lost during the evacuation of Earth in the third millennium. To unlock this mystic toolkit, Pinky must decipher its strange symbols and illuminations. Lingua ignota, Hildegard’s unknown language, arrives for a world in flux, one whose coordinates are being recast. Unknown Language is a mutant fiction of speculative mysticism, featuring time travel, visions and inner paths to outer space. Scheduled for release with Ignota Books on the Feast Day of Hildegard of Bingen, 17 September 2020, the book includes an introductory story by Bhanu Kapil and an afterword by Alice Spawls. Huw Lemmey is a novelist, artist, and critic living in Barcelona. He is the author of three novels: Unknown Language (2020), Red Tory: My Corbyn Chemsex Hell (2019), and Chubz: The Demonization of my Working Arse (2016). Huw writes on culture, sexuality and cities for the Guardian, Frieze, Flash Art, Tribune, TANK, The Architectural Review, Art Monthly, New Humanist, Rhizome, The White Review, and L’Uomo Vogue, amongst others. He writes the weekly essay series utopian drivel and is the co-host of the podcast ‘Bad Gays’
Face to Face: Polar Portraits
No full textDescription from Publisher: An exploration of pioneering polar photography and modern portraiture, Face to Face: Polar Portraits brings together in a single volume both rare, unpublished treasures from the historic collections of the Scott Polar Research Institute (SPRI), University of Cambridge, 'face to face' with cutting-edge modern imagery from expedition photographer Martin Hartley. The first book to examine the history and role of polar exploration photography, Face to Face features the first portraits of explorers, some of the earliest photographs of the Inuit, the first polar photographs to appear in a book, and rare images never before published from many of the Heroic-Age Antarctic expeditions. In addition to this remarkable collection is a foreword written by Sir Ranulph Fiennes; a fascinating exploration into 'photography then' - the history of photography and its role in shaping our vision of the polar hero by historian and curator of art at SPRI, Dr Huw Lewis-Jones; a discussion between Dr Lewis-Jones and Martin Hartley about 'photography now', focusing on the essential role that photography plays in modern polar adventuring; and an afterword entitled 'The Boundaries of Light' by the acclaimed anthropologist and author Hugh Brody
A Molecular Approach to the Diagnosis, Assessment, Monitoring and Treatment of Pulmonary Non-Tuberculous Mycobacterial Disease
No full textIntroduction: Non-Tuberculous Mycobacteria (NTM) can cause disease of the lungs and sinuses, lymph nodes, joints and central nervous system as well as disseminated infections in immunocompromised individuals. Efforts to tackle infections in NTM are hampered by a lack of reliable biomarkers for diagnosis, assessment of disease activity, and prognostication.
Aims: The broad aims of this thesis are:
1. to develop molecular assays capable of quantifying the 6 most common pathogenic mycobacteria (M. abscessus, M. avium, M. intracellulare, M. malmoense, M. kansasii, M. xenopi) and calculate comparative sensitivities and specificities for each assay.
2. to assess patients’ clinical course over 12 – 18 months by performing the developed molecular assays against DNA extracted from sputum from patients with NTM infection.
3. to assess dynamic bacterial changes of the lung microbiome in patients on treatment for NTM disease and those who are treatment na ve.
Methods: DNA was extracted from a total of 410 sputum samples obtained from 38 patients who were either:
• commencing treatment for either M. abscessus or Mycobacterium avium complex.
• considered colonised with M. abscessus or Mycobacterium avium complex (i.e. cultured NTM but were not deemed to have infection as they did not meet ATS or BTS criteria for disease).
• Diagnosed with cystic fibrosis (CF) or non-CF bronchiectasis but had never cultured NTM.
For the development of quantitative molecular assays, NTM hsp65 gene sequences were aligned and interrogated for areas of variability. These variable regions enabled the creation of species specific probes. In vitro sensitivity and specificity for each probe was determined by testing each probe against a panel of plasmids containing hsp65
gene inserts from different NTM species. Quantification accuracy was determined by using each assay against a mock community containing serial dilutions of target DNA.
Each sample was tested with the probes targeting: M. abscessus, M. avium and M. intracellulare producing a longitudinal assessment of NTM copy number during each patient’s clinical course.
In addition, a total of 64 samples from 16 patients underwent 16S rRNA gene sequencing to characterise longitudinal changes in the microbiome of both NTM disease and controls.
Results: In vitro sensitivity for the custom assays were 100% and specificity ranged from 91.6% to 100%. In terms of quantification accuracy, there was no significant difference between the measured results of each assay and the expected values when performed in singleplex. The assays were able to accurately determine NTM copy number to a theoretical limit of 10 copies/μl.
When used against samples derived from human sputum and using culture results as a gold standard, the sensitivity of the assay for M. abscessus was found to be 0.87 and 0.86 for MAC. The specificity of the assay for M. abscessus was 0.95 and 0.62 for MAC. The negative predictive value of the assay for M. abscessus was 0.98 and 0.95 for MAC. This resulted in an AUC of 0.92 for M. abscessus and 0.74 for MAC.
Longitudinal analysis of the lung microbiome using 16SrRNA gene sequencing showed that bacterial burden initially decreases after initiation of antibiotic therapy but begins to return to normal levels over several months of antibiotic therapy. This effect is mirrored by changes in alpha diversity. The decrease in bacterial burden and loss of alpha diversity was found to be secondary to significant changes in specific genera such as Veillonella and Streptococcus. The abundance of other Proteobacteria such as Pseudomonas remain relatively constant.
Conclusion: The molecular assay has shown high in vitro sensitivity and specificity for the detection and accurate quantification of the 6 most commonly pathogenic NTM species. The assays successfully identified NTM DNA from human sputum samples.
A notable association between NTM copy number and the cessation of one or more antibiotics existed (i.e. when one antibiotic was stopped because of patient intolerance, NTM copy number increased, often having been unrecordable prior to this). The qPCR assays developed in this thesis provide an affordable, real time and rapid measurement of NTM burden allowing clinicians to act on problematic results sooner than currently possible.
There was no significant difference between the microbiome in bronchiectasis and cystic fibrosis nor was there a significant difference between the microbiome in patients requiring treatment for NTM and those who did not. Patients receiving treatment experienced an initial decrease in bacterial burden over the first weeks of treatment followed by a gradual increase towards baseline over the next weeks to months. This change was mirrored in measures of alpha diversity. Changes in abundance and diversity were accounted for by decreases in specific bacteria whilst the abundance of other bacteria increased, occupying the microbial niche created. These bacteria (for example Pseudomonas spp) are often associated with morbidity.Open Acces
Spying for Wellington:British Military Intelligence in the Peninsular War
No full textIntelligence is often the critical factor in a successful military campaign. This was certainly the case for Arthur Wellesley, the Duke of Wellington, in the Peninsular War. In this book, author Huw J. Davies offers the first full account of the scope, complexity, and importance of Wellington's intelligence department, describing a highly organized, multifaceted series of networks of agents and spies throughout Spain and Portugal--an organization that was at once a microcosm of British intelligence at the time and a sophisticated forebear to intelligence developments in the twentieth century.Spying for Wellington shows us an organization that was, in effect, two parallel networks: one made up of Foreign Office agents "run" by British ambassadors in Spain and Portugal, the other comprising military spies controlled by Wellington himself. The network of agents supplied strategic intelligence, giving the British army advance warning of the arrival, destinations, and likely intentions of French reinforcements. The military network supplied operational intelligence, which confirmed the accuracy of the strategic intelligence and provided greater detail on the strengths, arms, and morale of the French forces. Davies reveals how, by integrating these two forms of intelligence, Wellington was able to develop an extremely accurate and reliable estimate of French movements and intentions not only in his own theater of operations but also in other theaters across the Iberian Peninsula. The reliability and accuracy of this intelligence, as Davies demonstrates, was central to Wellington's decision-making and, ultimately, to his overall success against the French.Correcting past, incomplete accounts, this is the definitive book on Wellington's use of intelligence. As such, it contributes to a clearer, more comprehensive understanding of Wellington at war and of his place in the history of British military intelligence
Replication Data and Code for: Quantifying the economic impacts of COVID-19 policy responses on Canada’s provinces in (almost) real time
No full textThe data and programs replicate tables and figures from "Quantifying the economic impacts of COVID-19 policy responses on Canada’s provinces in (almost) real time", by Cotton, Kashi, Lloyd-Ellis, Tremblay and Crowley. Please see the ReadMe file for additional details
STUDY OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH, VOLATILITY AND INNOVATION FOR THE EU-27 AND CEEC COUNTRIES
No full textThe present study applies, along general lines, the methodology used in Ramey&Ramey (1995), and Kroft, Lloyd-Ellis (2002), respectively, to analyze the dependencies between growth, volatility and innovation in the case of the EU-27 and CEEC (new member states from Central and Eastern Europe) countries, respectively. Unlike the above-mentioned papers, which use human capital as proxy for innovation, we use as indicator of innovation the Summary Innovation Index(SII), proposed by the European Innovation Scoreboard (EIS). Using the EVIEWS econometric software, we estimate regressions of the GDP growth rate on its total volatility, as well as on its partial volatilities, split with respect to the phases of the economic cycle. We also estimate regressions of the innovation rate on the GDP growth rate volatilities, as well as regressions of the GDP growth rate on the rate of innovation and the split volatility of the GDP growth rate. We find positive dependencies of the GDP growth rate on its own volatility, as well as on the innovation rate. The sources of the data are EUROSTAT, the National Statistical Institute of Romania (INS), and the European Innovation Scoreboard.growth, volatility, innovation
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