145 research outputs found
Intergenerationele risicodeling in collectieve en individuele pensioencontracten
No full textCollectieve pensioenregelingen onderscheiden zich vooral van individuele regelingen op het punt van intergenerationele risicodeling. De betekenis van deze risicodeling voor de welvaart van deelnemers is volgens de literatuur aanzienlijk: gemiddeld gaat het om zo’n 5 procent extra consumptie, met een maximum van zo’n 20 procent. In dit design paper stellen Jan Bonenkamp, Peter Broer en Ed Westerhout zich de vraag of dit beeld juist is. Zij nemen min of meer realistische (collectieve en individuele) pensioencontracten als uitgangspunt en betrekken alle huidige en toekomstige generaties bij de analyse
De waardevolle economische wetenschap
No full textDoor de crisis hebben economen een slechte naam gekregen, maar geheel onverdiend volgens Ed Westerhout. Voor een belangrijk deel heeft dit te maken met het onrealistische beeld dat het grote publiek van de doorsnee econoom heeft. Economen moeten het hier niet bij laten en dit verwrongen beeld bijstellen door beter en actiever uit te leggen waar het in de economie om draait
De waardevolle economische wetenschap
No full textDoor de crisis hebben economen een slechte naam gekregen, maar geheel onverdiend volgens Ed Westerhout. Voor een belangrijk deel heeft dit te maken met het onrealistische beeld dat het grote publiek van de doorsnee econoom heeft. Economen moeten het hier niet bij laten en dit verwrongen beeld bijstellen door beter en actiever uit te leggen waar het in de economie om draait
De mooie kant van de doorsneesystematiek
No full textHet kabinet is duidelijk in zijn visie op het toekomstig pensioenstelsel: de doorsneesystematiek zal vanaf 2020 worden afgebouwd. De voordelen van deze afschaffing worden wel vaak genoemd maar nadelen heeft het ook. Volgens Ed Westerhout zou het kabinet wel eens in haar eigen voet kunnen schieten wanneer afschaffing van de doorsneesystematiek niet met compenserend beleid gepaard gaat. Werken op hoge leeftijd wordt structureel ontmoedigd met alle gevolgen van dien voor de begroting en het beleidsstreven naar een duurzame inzetbaarheid van oudere werknemers
Can we Afford to Live Longer in Better Health? ENEPRI Research Reports No. 10, 1 July 2005
No full textThis research report analyses the effects of ageing populations upon public finances. More specifically, it focuses on the implications of population ageing for acute health care, long-term care and public pension expenditures for 15 EU countries. It pays particular attention to three novel insights: i) a large proportion of health-care spending relates to time to mortality rather than to age; ii) life expectancy may increase much faster than current demographic projections suggest; and, iii) average health status may continue to improve in the future. It adopts a generational accounting model that incorporates health-care costs during the last years of life, decomposed into an acute health-care component and a long-term care component. The projections show that gains in life expectancy increase age-related expenditure, while improved health has the opposite effect. Combined, these trends reduce health-care costs and increase pension expenditures. Their joint effect upon public finances is rather modest, however. Hence, the assessment of public finances in most EU-15 countries does not change: even if a more rapid increase in life expectancy combines with an improvement in health, current fiscal and social security institutions will be unsustainable
Alternative Scenarios for Health, Life Expectancy and Social Expenditure: The Influence of Living Longer in Better Health on Health Care and Pension Expenditures and Government Finances in the EU. ENEPRI Research Reports No. 8, 1 June 2005
No full textThis report investigates the effect of population ageing on public health- and long-term care expenditures, public pensions and government finances in EU countries in the projection period 2002-50. The authors specifically consider new insights about the development of demography and health on these projections. In this regard, the view has been expressed that people may live substantially longer in the future than estimated by current demographic projections and may spend part of these additional years in better health. Both developments have obvious implications for the correct projection of public expenditures and finances. To assess the effects of living longer in better health, four core scenarios are developed: a base case and scenarios for living longer, living in better health and living longer in better health. The analysis also contains a number of new elements. First, it includes the costs incurred during the last years of life in the projections, which will be postponed by an increase in life expectancy. Hence, the calculations in the study correct for the overestimation of future health-care expenditure that arises when no account is made for mortality-related costs. Second, the cost of mortality is disaggregated into a health- and long-term care component, which differs by age. Third, tax revenues are incorporated into the projections for government finances. With this information, the analysis is able to project government finances in the future and assess whether government finances are sustainable under current social policy rules
Financing medical specialist services in the Netherlands; welfare implications of imperfect agency
No full textFrom 1995 onward the financing scheme for specialist care in the Netherlands has moved from a fee-for-service scheme to a lump-sum budget scheme. This paper analyses the economic and welfare effects of this policy change. The paper adopts a model that integrates demand and supply considerations and recognizes the potential roles of moral hazard and supplier-induced demand. The model is fully numerical, being estimated and calibrated upon data for the Dutch health care sector. The paper finds that the shift in financing regime has been welfare-reducing. The policy change induced medical specialists to lower the supply of health services which was already too low from a welfare point of view. This conclusion is robust to significant changes in major parameter values.
Lage rente geen reden voor laten oplopen overheidsschuld
No full textDe extreem lage rente vormt geen reden de overheidsschuld te verhogen en zo beleggers een alternatief te bieden. Ed Westerhout gaat in op de achtergrond van deze nu regelmatig te horen redeneertrant. Hij stelt dat de rente op overheidsschuld niet verward mag worden met het rendement op de kapitaalmarkt. Historisch gezien is het een rariteit dat het kapitaalmarktrendement lager ligt dan het tempo van economische groei. Ook bij de huidige lage rente is het dus niet zo de economie ook later baat heeft bij het nu verhogen van de overheidsschuld
Can we afford to live longer in better health?
No full textThis document analyses the effects of ageing populations upon public finances. More specifically, it focuses on the implications of ageing for acute health care, long-term care, and public pension expenditure. It does so for 15 EU countries. �It pays particular attention to three novel insights: (i) a large part of health care spending relates to time to death rather than to age: (ii) life expectancy may increase much faster than current demographic projections suggest, and (iii) the average health status may continue to improve in the future. It adopts a generational accounting model that incorporates health care costs during the last years of life, decomposed into an acute health care component and a long-term care component. The projections show that gains in life expectancy increase age-related expenditure; better health has the opposite effect. Combined, these trends reduce health care expenditure and increase pension expenditure. Their joint effect upon public finance is rather modest, however. Hence, the assessment of public finances in most EU15 countries does not change: even if a faster increase in life expectancy should combine with an improvement in health, current fiscal and social security institutions are unsustainable.
The impact of demographic uncertainty on public finances in the Netherlands
No full textThis paper presents stochastic simulations, i.e. simulations that combine the CGE model of the Dutch economy GAMMA with stochastic population projections, to quantify uncertainties surrounding the consequences of population ageing for Dutch public finances. The expected increase in the ratio of retirees to workers that is due to population ageing is sure to increase pressure on public finances and the Dutch economy in the coming decades. However, because of the uncertainty regarding future demographic developments, the exact extent of the problem is unknown. This paper quantifies the�uncertainties by stochastic simulation.
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