1,720,989 research outputs found
Euroland: Recovery will slow down
Full text linkThe economic recovery in the euro area has accelerated in the course of 2004. During the first two quarters, real GDP rose at an annual rate of slightly over 2 percent, after about 1½ percent in the second half of 2003. For the first time since 2001, overall capacity utilization increased. Exports were driven by the boom in the world economy so that the dampening effects of the previous appreciation of the euro were more than compensated. Internal demand picked up somewhat; especially private consumption recovered whereas investment of firms was rather sluggish. As a consequence of the upswing, the situation on the labor market stopped deteriorating. Inflation also picked up because of the surge in oil prices. During the summer, the HICP rose by more than 2 percent. The sharp increase in oil prices will dampen domestic demand in the near future. In addition, the boom in the world economy has probably already passed its peak. Consequently, the economic expansion in the euro area is likely to slow down somewhat in the rest of this year. This forecast is supported by various leading indicators. For 2004 as a whole, we expect real GDP to increase by 1.9 percent. The unemployment rate will average 9 percent and will thus be slightly higher than last year. Also because of higher oil prices, inflation will be higher than the target rate of the ECB. In 2005, the expansion of domestic demand will slow down further. Especially consumers will be cautious given the weak prospects for income in the medium term. External demand will also lose momentum so that real GDP growth will be moderate in the course of next year. The rate will average 1.9 percent. Inflation is expected to be slightly below 2 percent. All in all, the recovery will be very modest when compared to previous cycles. One reason is that the growth of potential output is lower than before. Our estimate for the current year amounts to 1 percent. The slowdown in recent years is mainly due to the slower growth of productivity. In contrast, the number of total hours worked has increased. Apparently gains of employment can only be achieved at the expense of productivity growth. This is a pessimistic diagnosis given the goal of the EU to become the most dynamic economic region of the world. In spite of the economic recovery, the situation of public finances has deteriorated further. The aggregated budget deficit will probably increase to 2.8 percent of GDP, compared to 2.7 percent last year. The deficits will also be higher than reported in most national Stability Programmes. In addition to Germany, France, the Netherlands, and Greece, the deficit ratio will also exceed the 3 percent margin in Italy and Portugal. The current proposals for a reform of the Pact are mainly concerned with a more generous interpretation of the 3 percent ceiling. However, the main target of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) is that government budgets should be balanced or in surplus over the medium term. This target has not been achieved in many countries in recent years; it is not even planned in the Stability Programmes for France and Germany until 2007. This failure cannot be attributed at all to the weakness of the economy in recent years. In fact, the cyclically adjusted deficits of these two countries are higher today than at the end of the 1990s. In other words, there has not been a consolidation of the budget at all. If the SGP loses its strength or if there were no binding rules for fiscal policy, the consequences would be severe for various reasons. First of all, it would be a disadvantage for the countries themselves. Given the likely demographic changes, it would be wise to start saving now; the fact is, however, that the debt burden continues to increase making fiscal policy less sustainable. Second, those countries which intend to join the monetary union in the near future hardly have any incentive to stick to the targets of the Pact if other members ignore or stretch the rules. The criteria for entry would therefore be softened which would be in stark contrast to the fundamentals of the European Monetary Union. The ECB has left key interest rates at a very low level for more than a year. Meanwhile, the euro area economy has recovered as expected by the central bank. The high oil prices are a risk factor for the future path of economic activity. However, this will probably not lead to a cut of interest rates especially because inflation has remained stubbornly high. The next step is likely to be a tightening of monetary policy. Given our forecast of a moderate upturn, we expect that monetary policy will be tightened only moderately; a raise of 25 basis points is likely around the turn of the year. Such a move is also in line with the reactions of the ECB in the past, which can be described by an empirical Taylor rule. --
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Full text linkThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Variations on the Author
Full text link“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis
Full text linkWe provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis
Dispelling the Myths Behind First-author Citation Counts
Full text linkWe conducted a full-scale evaluative citation analysis study of scholars in the XML research field to explore just how different from each other author rankings resulting from different citation counting methods actually are, and to demonstrate the capability of emerging data and tools on the Web in supporting more realistic citation counting methods. Our results contest some common arguments for the continued
use of first-author citation counts in the evaluation of scholars, such as high correlations between author rankings by first-author citation counts and other citation
counting methods, and high costs of using more realistic citation counting methods that are not well-supported by the ISI databases. It is argued that increasingly available digital full text research papers make it possible for citation analysis studies to go beyond what the ISI databases have directly supported and to employ more
sophisticated methods
Why economic growth has been weak in Arab countries: The role of exogenous shocks, economic policy failure and institutional deficiencies
Full text linkThe gap between the per capita income of most Arab countries and that of advanced industrial countries has widened since the early 1990s. The economic growth performance of the Arab world has been weak by developing country standards, too. Yet, the diversity of growth patterns within this group defies easy generalizations on the reasons underlying the disappointing performance. In some cases, country-specific shocks played a role, notably for relatively high growth in Sudan (discovery of oil) and the poor performance of Jordan (embargo on neighboring Iraq). On the whole, however, influences beyond the immediate control of Arab policymakers contribute surprisingly little to the explanation of growth patterns. The relation between terms-of-trade developments and economic growth turns out to be extremely weak. Moreover, the IMF and the World Bank are hardly to blame for imposing ineffective policy conditionality on Arab countries, if only because the leverage of international financial institutions has remained limited in the region. Economic policy failure in Arab countries appears to be a more important reason for poor growth. Even though the region has partly fallen into line with the Washington Consensus, various Arab countries lag behind other developing countries when it comes to trimming the interventionist role of the state and integrating themselves into the global division of labor through trade and foreign direct investment (FDI). Nevertheless, the relation between macroeconomic conditions, factor accumulation as well as trade and FDI liberalization on the one hand and economic growth on the other hand remains elusive. This may be because reforms have not gone far enough and have remained fragmentary even in Arab countries with a relatively favorable growth performance. It can neither be ruled out, however, that some elements of the Washington Consensus have been less effective than widely expected in promoting growth. For example, the enclave character of FDI in some Arab countries is rather unlikely to spur per capita income growth. This implies that country-specific conditions deserve close attention when designing economic policy reforms. In Arab countries with low per capita income, domestic resource mobilization appears to be more important than attracting FDI. Even in more advanced countries such as Egypt and Tunisia, continued efforts towards human capital formation are key to sustainable growth. Furthermore, policy-related variables and economic growth depend on more deeply rooted institutional deficiencies. Institutions in many Arab countries are less advanced than their income level would suggest. The experience of several oil exporters in the region supports the proposition that the abundance of oil encourages rent-seeking and exerts a negative impact on economic growth via its deleterious impact on institutional development. As a consequence, economic policy reforms along the lines of the Washington Consensus are not sufficient to improve the growth prospects of Arab countries. The call for institutional reforms mainly applies to resource-rich countries such as Algeria, Saudi Arabia and Sudan, notwithstanding their different growth performance in the past. It may prove difficult for these countries to overcome the natural resource curse, but the successful transformation of a country like Mexico from an oildependent to a highly diversified economy with more advanced institutions may show Arab countries the way. --
koamabayili/VECTRON-author-checklist: VECTRON author checklist
No full textWe have done our best to complete the author checklist relating to the use of animals in the hut study. Note that the objective for the hut study was to evaluate the IRS treatment applications for residual efficacy against Anopheles mosquitoes, including the local An. coluzzii mosquito population. Cows were only used to attract mosquitoes into the huts and no tests were carried out directly on the cows. The author checklist is intended for use with studies where experiments are carried out on animals, which is why we have had such difficulty in completing this for the hut study, as many of the questions do not relate to how the cows were used
Author-wise bibliometric analysis based on entropy.
No full textAuthor-wise bibliometric analysis based on entropy.</p
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