137 research outputs found
Essays on the effect of inflation volatility and institutions on growth and development
No full textThe purpose of this dissertation is to analyze empirically and theoretically the impact of the decrease in inflation volatility versus the impact of the improvement in institutions on growth and development. The first chapter of this dissertation estimates the effects of inflation and inflation volatility on economic growth in the presence of different degrees of legal and financial institutions. The main contribution of this chapter is to show that while the level of inflation does not have a significant effect on growth, which is in line with previous studies; inflation volatility does significantly impact growth even for countries with moderately high levels on inflation. In addition, improving either legal or financial institutions has a statistically significant positive impact on growth and helps to reduce the negative impact of inflation volatility on growth.
The second chapter analyzes the channel through which inflation volatility and financial institutions affect a country's ability to borrow on international capital markets; which affects their ability to invest and therefore grow. The findings of this chapter show that reducing inflation volatility or improving financial institutions will significantly improve a country's sovereign debt rating leading to a drop in its cost of borrowing, which is to be quantified. One important contribution of this chapter is to show that it is inflation volatility that is important in determining a country's sovereign debt rating rather than the level of inflation which has been argued in the literature.
The welfare implications of the decrease in inflation volatility versus the improvement in institutions are quantified in chapter three. This chapter analyzes a micro-foundation based small open economy model that is used to help fully understand the dynamics of a decrease in inflation volatility and an improvement in institutions for a developing economy. The study finds that the welfare effect of improving institutions and of reducing inflation volatility is large with the largest effect being caused by an improvement in financial institutions. One policy implication of these results is that developing economies can get larger welfare gains from improving their institutions than from reducing inflation volatility.Ph.D.Includes bibliographical references (p. 177-188)by Noha Emar
Garlic peel-based carbon quantum dots as a sustainable alternative for the sensitive and green spectrofluorometric quantification of molnupiravir in pharmaceutical capsules
No full textSearching for natural alternatives to replace environmentally harmful chemical reagents in analysis is just as crucial as finding easily accessible analytical tools. To reinforce these concepts, this study proposes a simple spectrofluorometric approach using natural carbon quantum dots (n-CQDs) as fluorescence probes for sensitive and environmentally friendly measurement of molnupiravir, an antiviral drug that was initially developed for influenza and has demonstrated potential efficacy against COVID-19. n-CQDs were synthesized using garlic peels (GP), a waste material, via a microwave-assisted method. n-CQDs have a characteristic broad absorbance and narrow emission spectrum, making it easier to analyze several targets. The GP-based n-CQDs showed maximum excitation/emission at 265/347 nm with an acceptable quantum yield. After reaction with molnupiravir, the produced n-CQDs demonstrated unique features to determine the tested analyte. Different factors influencing the synthesis of n-CQDs and their interaction with the studied drug, molnupiravir, were investigated and optimized. Using GP-based n-CQDs as fluorescent probe for measuring molnupiravir byfluorescence (FL), a green analytical approach based on the probes' fluorescence quenching was developed (GP- n-CQDs -QN-FL). The method demonstrated good linearity from 0.5 to 30 μg/mL and detection/quantitation limits of 0.19/0.5 μg/mL. Validation studies confirmed accuracy (98–102 % recovery), precision (<2 % RSD), robustness and selectivity. Various assessment indexes have been utilized to assess the environmental friendliness and suitability aspects of the suggested approach in comparison to other existing techniques. Furthermore, n-CQDs were successfully employed for the precise analysis of molnupiravir in its pharmaceutical capsules. The comprehensive results proved that the method can be deemed eco-friendly and feasible more than the other techniques for its intended purpose for molnupiravir determination in pharmaceutical dosage forms with an average recovery 101.17 %
Participatory Strategic Foresight Framework: Embracing Future Thinking in Design Education and Community Vision Planning
No full textChanges in society, student expectations, and technology continue to shift the ways in which we learn. The contemporary state of design education is being affected by changes in the professional realm that requires a future thinking-centered design to increase the citizen participation in designing their own future city-environment. As new forces reshape the academic landscape and conversations around educational accessibility pervade public debate, examining existing methodologies of design research and curricula is significant to enhance the student experience and equip them with the skills needed for future professional practice. Future thinking can be seen as a crucial premise to approach solving a problem in an innovative way. It is particularly essential
at circumstances in which challenges are complex, vague, and ambiguous. Any futures-focused effort, strategic foresight, or provocation about an alternate future scenario is a means of exploring and learning from generated possibilities. Design-Futures deal with the role of design in shaping future alternatives. Future thinking incorporates two particular approaches: diverging and converging. It requires both a flexible way of understanding, to come with different thoughts, and know-how to make responsible decisions. This chapter reviews the literature crossing strategic foresight and interior design with the accentuation put on how design students, educators and design practitioners may engage with the future to investigate the challenges to decision-making.
The author has developed a framework crossing the area of service & product design through future thinking, user and community centered design. The framework is structured to educate design practitioners effectively and also empower them to lead the market as change-makers. This paper will present case studies of participatory design workshops that addressed different areas of
concern but were underpinned by a shared approach. Through this framework, conclusion is presented as the elaboration of a futures thinking framework that can contribute to many other design disciplines
Fertility and Female Employment: A Panel Study on Developing Countries
Get PDFThe study analyzes the effect of female employment on fertility rate. Using panel fertility regression specification with Prais-Winsten regressions procedure, panel-corrected standard errors, and autoregressive errors on a sample of 29 developing countries over the period 1990-2011, the study estimates the effect of female labor participation on fertility rate. To pick up country-specific factors, using the principal component analysis, the study estimates a family policy index that consists of three important family policy variables including: Duration of paid leave for mothers (weeks), wage replacement of paid leave for mothers (%), and length of
breast feeding coverage (years). Furthermore, to pick up fixed effects and time effects, the study includes geographic location (latitude) and time effects. The empirical results confirm the finding of Engelhardt and Prskawetz (2005) that the increase in female labor force participation rate has a negative impact on fertility and that this negative effect is decreasing over time. Also, the results suggest that more flexible policies toward family planning such as longer duration of paid leave for mothers, higher percentage of wage replacement of paid leave for mothers, and longer breast feeding coverage help in increasing fertility. Finally, in line with Pampel (2001), Kogel (2004) and Engelhardt and Prskawetz (2005) the study finds that time trend affects this negative relationship between female labor participation and fertility where the negative impact of the former on the latter decreases over time
Predictive ability of three different estimates of “Cay” to excess stock returns : a comparative study for South Africa and USA
Get PDFThe results of Lettau and Ludvigson (2001) show that Cay-LL has a significant predictive power both in the in-sample and the out-of-sample forecast of excess return. Our study departs from Lettau and Ludvigson (2001) in adding and comparing other two estimates of cay namely cay-OLS and cay-DLS besides cay-LL for forecasting excess return in both the United States and South Africa. Using quarterly data over the period 1988:1 to 2012:2, the results for the United States suggest that the three alternative measures of cay have positive significant predicting ability for the in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting models. Furthermore, and in line with the results of Lettau and Ludvigson (2001), cay-LL has the least mean squared forecasting errors. For the case of South Africa, lagged excess return and dividend yield beat the three alternative measures of cay in forecasting excess return. The results suggest that for the case of South Africa, the trend deviations of the macroeconomic variables is not a strong predictor of the excess stock returns over a treasury bill rate, and cannot account for a statistical significant variation in future excess returns.peer-reviewe
Predictive ability of three different estimates of “cay” to excess stock returns - A comparative study Germany & U.S -
Get PDFThe results of (Lettau, M.; Ludvison, S.,(2001)) show that Cay-LL has a significant predictive power both in the in-sample and the out-of-sample forecast of excess return. Our study departs from Lettau, M.; Ludvison, S.,(2001) in adding and comparing other two estimates of “cay” namely “Cay-Ols’ and “Cay-Dls” besides “Cay-LL” for forecasting excess return in both Germany and U.S over the period 1969:2 to 2005:1. Using quarterly data for both Germany and U.S over the period 1969:2 to 2005:1. We find that Cay-Ols proved to have the strongest in-sample forecast and out-of-sample forecast of the nested models of excess stock returns over the treasury bill rate in the U.S. We also find that the three different methods of estimating cay, Cay-Ols, Cay-Dls and Cay-LL, do not have any significant effect in either the in-sample forecast or the out-of-sample forecast of nested models in Germany. Finally analyzing the out-of sample forecast of non-nested models, using the Diebold Mariano(DM) test, we find that for the case of U.S, Cay-ols, Cay-Dls or Cay-LL proved to have equal predictive accuracy. On the other hand for the case of Germany, neither Cay-Ols nor Cay-Dls have equal predictive accuracy when compared to Cay-LL
Revisiting sovereign ratings, capital flows and financial contagion in emerging markets
Get PDFThis study revisits sovereign credit ratings, contagion and capital flows to Emerging Markets (EMs), and clarify the relationship between them. Specifically, this study analyzes how the changes in sovereign rating influence different types of capital flows to EMs and whether the changes in the different kinds of capital flows in one country be explained by a sovereign ratings’ change in another country. Using Arellano-Bover/Blundell-Bond Dynamic Panel System GMM for 23 EMs over the period 1990-2012 the results of the study suggest that sovereign ratings is a crucial factor for EMs’ access to international capital markets and that capital flows is a major source of financing for Ems. In addition, the results show that financial contagion may continue to be a threat to capital flowing into EMs and that financial crisis increases the impact of sovereign rating on foreign direct investment but is not the case with portfolio investment
Predictive ability of three different estimates of “cay” to excess stock returns - A comparative study South Africa & U.S. -
Get PDFThe results of Lettau and Ludvigson (2001) show that Cay-LL has a significant predictive power both in the in-sample and the out-of-sample forecast of excess return. Our study departs from Lettau and Ludvigson (2001) in adding and comparing other two estimates of cay namely cay-OLS and cay-DLS besides cay-LL for forecasting excess return in both the United States and South Africa. Using quarterly data over the period 1988:1 to 2012:2, the results for the United States suggest that the three alternative measures of cay have positive significant predicting ability for the in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting models. Furthermore, and in line with the results of Lettau and Ludvigson (2001), cay-LL has the least mean squared forecasting errors. For the case of South Africa, lagged excess return and dividend yield beat the three alternative measures of cay in forecasting excess return. The results suggest that for the case of South Africa, the trend deviations of the macroeconomic variables is not a strong predictor of the excess stock returns over a treasury bill rate, and cannot account for a statistical significant variation in future excess returns
Quantitative Evaluation of the Struggle of Economic Performance: The Case of MENA Countries
No full textThe recent political uprising in the Middle East and North African (MENA) economies shines the light on evaluating the so-called structural reforms that are aimed at achieving economic freedom. This paper examines the impact of liberal policies on the economic performance of labor and capital productivity in MENA economies. Using nonlinear Panel Least Squares regression with regional dummies and period fixed effects (LSDV) for a sample of 18 MENA countries over the period 1995-2009, the study estimates the impact of different aspects of economic freedom on labor and capital productivity. The economic freedom measure encompass different areas, including freedom of fiscal, monetary, trade, investment, labor, financial, and freedom from corruption. The results of the study suggest a non-uniform impact of different areas of economic freedom on output per worker, capital intensity, human capital per worker, or total factor productivity. For instance, while trade freedom, fiscal freedom, monetary freedom, investment freedom, financial freedom, and freedom from corruption enhances output per worker through the increase in human capital per worker, it worsens it through a negative impact on capital intensity and total factor productivity. Furthermore, the study finds a significant reverse causality that runs from enhancing either output per worker or its three components on the economic freedom measure. While increasing output per worker or human capital per worker is reflected in an improvement in economic freedom measures, the opposite is found for the increase in capital intensity or total factor productivity. An important policy implication in this respect suggests that liberal economic policies in MENA countries might not be a pre-requisite for their enhanced future productivity
Inflation volatility, financial institutions and sovereign debt rating
Get PDFThis study analyzes the impact of reducing inflation volatility versus the impact of improving financial institutions with regard to the country’s sovereign debt rating. An empirical analysis of the impact of inflation, inflation volatility and financial institutions on a country’s sovereign debt rating is undertaken using a sample of 37 developed and developing countries over the period 1989–2006. The study estimates a non-linear rating regression that interacts inflation volatility with an index for financial institutions developed in this paper using the principal component analysis. The results suggest that reducing inflation volatility can have a statistically and economically significant positive effect on a country’s sovereign debt rating as compared to the level of inflation. The results also show that improving financial institutions has a statistically and economically significant positive direct and indirect effect on a country’s sovereign debt rating. A decrease of one standard deviation in inflation volatility leads to an increase of about two classifications in a country’s sovereign debt rating. The increase in sovereign debt rating leads to a reduction in the average annual long-term bond yield by about 4.4%. On the other hand, an increase of one standard deviation in the financial institutions’ index leads to an increase in the ratings class of about one class, which in turn reduces the average annual long-term bond yield by about 4.27%
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