1,720,966 research outputs found
Spatio-temporal prediction of wind fields
Get PDFShort-term wind and wind power forecasts are required for the reliable and economic operation of power systems with significant wind power penetration. This thesis presents new statistical techniques for producing forecasts at multiple locations using spatiotemporal information. Forecast horizons of up to 6 hours are considered for which statistical methods outperform physical models in general. Several methods for producing hourly wind speed and direction forecasts from 1 to 6 hours ahead are presented in addition to a method for producing five-minute-ahead probabilistic wind power forecasts. The former have applications in areas such as energy trading and defining reserve requirements, and the latter in power system balancing and wind farm control. Spatio-temporal information is captured by vector autoregressive (VAR) models that incorporate wind direction by modelling the wind time series using complex numbers. In a further development, the VAR coefficients are replaced with coefficient functions in order to capture the dependence of the predictor on external variables, such as the time of year or wind direction. The complex-valued approach is found to produce accurate speed predictions, and the conditional predictors offer improved performance with little additional computational cost. Two non-linear algorithms have been developed for wind forecasting. In the first, the predictor is derived from an ensemble of particle swarm optimised candidate solutions. This approach is low cost and requires very little training data but fails to capitalise on spatial information. The second approach uses kernelised forms of popular linear algorithms which are shown to produce more accurate forecasts than their linear equivalents for multi-step-ahead prediction. Finally, very-short-term wind power forecasting is considered. Five-minute-ahead parametric probabilistic forecasts are produced by modelling the predictive distribution as logit-normal and forecasting its parameters using a sparse-VAR (sVAR) approach. Development of the sVAR is motivated by the desire to produce forecasts on a large spatial scale, i.e. hundreds of locations, which is critical during periods of high instantaneous wind penetration.Short-term wind and wind power forecasts are required for the reliable and economic operation of power systems with significant wind power penetration. This thesis presents new statistical techniques for producing forecasts at multiple locations using spatiotemporal information. Forecast horizons of up to 6 hours are considered for which statistical methods outperform physical models in general. Several methods for producing hourly wind speed and direction forecasts from 1 to 6 hours ahead are presented in addition to a method for producing five-minute-ahead probabilistic wind power forecasts. The former have applications in areas such as energy trading and defining reserve requirements, and the latter in power system balancing and wind farm control. Spatio-temporal information is captured by vector autoregressive (VAR) models that incorporate wind direction by modelling the wind time series using complex numbers. In a further development, the VAR coefficients are replaced with coefficient functions in order to capture the dependence of the predictor on external variables, such as the time of year or wind direction. The complex-valued approach is found to produce accurate speed predictions, and the conditional predictors offer improved performance with little additional computational cost. Two non-linear algorithms have been developed for wind forecasting. In the first, the predictor is derived from an ensemble of particle swarm optimised candidate solutions. This approach is low cost and requires very little training data but fails to capitalise on spatial information. The second approach uses kernelised forms of popular linear algorithms which are shown to produce more accurate forecasts than their linear equivalents for multi-step-ahead prediction. Finally, very-short-term wind power forecasting is considered. Five-minute-ahead parametric probabilistic forecasts are produced by modelling the predictive distribution as logit-normal and forecasting its parameters using a sparse-VAR (sVAR) approach. Development of the sVAR is motivated by the desire to produce forecasts on a large spatial scale, i.e. hundreds of locations, which is critical during periods of high instantaneous wind penetration
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Get PDFThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Variations on the Author
Get PDF“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis
Get PDFWe provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis
Dispelling the Myths Behind First-author Citation Counts
Get PDFWe conducted a full-scale evaluative citation analysis study of scholars in the XML research field to explore just how different from each other author rankings resulting from different citation counting methods actually are, and to demonstrate the capability of emerging data and tools on the Web in supporting more realistic citation counting methods. Our results contest some common arguments for the continued
use of first-author citation counts in the evaluation of scholars, such as high correlations between author rankings by first-author citation counts and other citation
counting methods, and high costs of using more realistic citation counting methods that are not well-supported by the ISI databases. It is argued that increasingly available digital full text research papers make it possible for citation analysis studies to go beyond what the ISI databases have directly supported and to employ more
sophisticated methods
koamabayili/VECTRON-author-checklist: VECTRON author checklist
No full textWe have done our best to complete the author checklist relating to the use of animals in the hut study. Note that the objective for the hut study was to evaluate the IRS treatment applications for residual efficacy against Anopheles mosquitoes, including the local An. coluzzii mosquito population. Cows were only used to attract mosquitoes into the huts and no tests were carried out directly on the cows. The author checklist is intended for use with studies where experiments are carried out on animals, which is why we have had such difficulty in completing this for the hut study, as many of the questions do not relate to how the cows were used
Author-wise bibliometric analysis based on entropy.
No full textAuthor-wise bibliometric analysis based on entropy.</p
Very-short-term probabilistic wind power forecasts by sparse vector autoregression
Get PDFA spatio-temporal method for producing very-short-term parametric probabilistic wind power forecasts at a large number of locations is presented. Smart grids containing tens, or hundreds, of wind generators require skilled very-short-term forecasts to operate effectively, and spatial information is highly desirable. In addition, probabilistic forecasts are widely regarded as necessary for optimal power system management as they quantify the uncertainty associated with point forecasts. Here we work within a parametric framework based on the logit-normal distribution and forecast its parameters. The location parameter for multiple wind farms is modelled as a vector-valued spatio-temporal process, and the scale parameter is tracked by modified exponential smoothing. A state-of-the-art technique for fitting sparse vector autoregressive models is employed to model the location parameter and demonstrates numerical advantages over conventional vector autoregressive models. The proposed method is tested on a dataset of 5 minute mean wind power generation at 22 wind farms in Australia. 5-minute-ahead forecasts are produced and evaluated in terms of point and probabilistic forecast skill scores and calibration. Conventional autoregressive and vector autoregressive models serve as benchmarks
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