127 research outputs found
Block Trading, Ownership Structure, and the Value of Corporate Votes
No full textThis paper shows that open market block trading can provide a link between private benefits of control enjoyed by large shareholders and the ?voting premium?, i.e. the price difference between voting and non-voting shares. We first demonstrate in a microstructure model with informed traders and short-selling constraint that the trading activity of blockholders translates into a spread between the prices of voting and non-voting shares. In contrast to the extant theory, this model can explain the voting premium in the absence of corporate takeovers. In the empirical part of the paper, we show for a comprehensive sample of German dual-class companies that large trades occur more often in voting shares than in non-voting shares, and that the block trading activity in voting shares is strongly correlated with the voting premium. Moreover, the effect of the ownership structure on the voting premium becomes insignificant once we control for the block trading activity in voting shares. --
Competitive Risk Sharing Contracts with One-Sided Commitment
No full textThis paper analyzes dynamic equilibrium risk sharing contracts between profit-maximizing intermediaries and a large pool of ex-ante identical agents that face idiosyncratic income uncertainty that makes them heterogeneous ex-post. In any given period, after having observed her income, the agent can walk away from the contract, while the intermediary cannot, i.e. there is one-sided commitment. We consider the extreme scenario that the agents face no costs to walking away, and can sign up with any competing intermediary without any reputational losses. We demonstrate that not only autarky, but also partial and full insurance can obtain, depending on the relative patience of agents and financial intermediaries. Insurance can be provided because in an equilibrium contract an up-front payment effectively locks in the agent with an intermediary. We then show that our contract economy is equivalent to a consumption-savings economy with one-period Arrow securities and a short-sale constraint, similar to Bulow and Rogoff (1989). From this equivalence and our characterization of dynamic contracts it immediately follows that without cost of switching financial intermediaries debt contracts are not sustainable, even though a risk allocation superior to autarky can be achieved.Long-term contracts, Risk Sharing, Limited Commitment, Competition
Selecting Comparables for the Valuation of European Firms
No full textThis paper investigates which comparables selection method generates the most precise forecasts when valuing European companies with the enterprise value to EBIT multiple. We also consider the USA as a reference point. It turns out that selecting comparable companies with similar return on assets clearly outperforms selections according to industry membership or total assets. Moreover, we investigate whether comparables should be selected from the same country, from the same region, or from all OECD members. For most European countries, choosing comparables from the 15 European Union member states yields the best forecasts. In contrast, for the UK and the US, comparables should be chosen from the same country only.comparables, selection method, valuing companies, forecasts, EBIT, industry membership, ROA
Value-at-Risk Calculations with Time Varying Copulae
No full textValue-at-Risk (VaR) of a portfolio is determined by the multivariate distribution of the risk factors increments. This distribution can be modelled through copulae, where the copulae parameters are not necessarily constant over time. For an exchange rate portfolio, copulae with time varying parameters are estimated and the VaR simulated accordingly. Backtesting underlines the improved performance of time varying copulae.Value-at-Risk,VaR, portfolio, copulae
Common Functional Implied Volatility Analysis
No full textTrading, hedging and risk analysis of complex option portfolios depend on accurate pricing models. The modelling of implied volatilities (IV) plays an important role, since volatility is the crucial parameter in the Black-Scholes (BS) pricing formula. It is well known from empirical studies that the volatilities implied by observed market prices exhibit patterns known as volatility smiles or smirks that contradict the assumption of constant volatility in the BS pricing model. On the other hand, the IV is a function of two parameters: the strike price and the time to maturity and it is desirable in practice to reduce the dimension of this object and characterize the IV surface through a small number of factors. Clearly, a dimension reduced pricing-model that should reflect the dynamics of the IV surface needs to contain factors and factor loadings that characterize the IV surface itself and their movements across time.implied volatility, Black-Scholes, option portfolio, pricing
Nonparametric Productivity Analysis
No full textHow can we measure and compare the relative performance of production units? If input and output variables are one dimensional, then the simplest way is to compute efficiency by calculating and comparing the ratio of output and input for each production unit. This idea is inappropriate though, when multiple inputs or multiple outputs are observed. Consider a bank, for example, with three branches A, B, and C. The branches take the number of staff as the input, and measures outputs such as the number of transactions on personal and business accounts. Assume that the following statistics are observed: Branch A: 60000 personal transactions, 50000 business transactions, 25 people on staff, Branch B: 50000 personal transactions, 25000 business transactions, 15 people on staff, Branch C: 45000 personal transactions, 15000 business transactions, 10 people on staff. We observe that Branch C performed best in terms of personal transactions per staff, whereas Branch A has the highest ratio of business transactions per staff. By contrast Branch B performed better than Branch A in terms of personal transactions per staff, and better than Branch C in terms of business transactions per staff. How can we compare these business units in a fair way? Moreover, can we possibly create a virtual branch that reflects the input/output mechanism and thus creates a scale for the real branches? Productivity analysis provides a systematic approach to these problems. We review the basic concepts of productivity analysis and two popular methods DEA and FDH, which are given in Sections 12.1 and 12.2, respectively. Sections 12.3 and 12.4 contain illustrative examples with real data.relative performance, production units, productivity analysis, Data Envelopment Analysis, DEA, Free Disposal Hull, DFH, insurance agencies, manufacturing industry
Yxilon – a Modular Open-Source Statistical Programming Language
No full textStatistical research has always been at the edge of available computing power. Huge datasets, e.g in DataMining or Quantitative Finance, and computationally intensive techniques, e.g. bootstrap methods, always require a little bit more computing power than is currently available. But the most popular statistical programming language R, as well as statistical programming languages like S or XploRe, are interpreted which makes them slow in computing intensive areas. The common solution is to implement these routines in low-level programming languages like C/C++ or Fortran and subsequently integrate them as dynamic linked libraries (DLL) or shared object libraries (SO) in the statistical programming language.statistical programming language, XploRe, Yxilon, Java, dynamic linked libraries, shared object libraries
Predicting Bankruptcy with Support Vector Machines
No full textThe purpose of this work is to introduce one of the most promising among recently developed statistical techniques – the support vector machine (SVM) – to corporate bankruptcy analysis. An SVM is implemented for analysing such predictors as financial ratios. A method of adapting it to default probability estimation is proposed. A survey of practically applied methods is given. This work shows that support vector machines are capable of extracting useful information from financial data, although extensive data sets are required in order to fully utilize their classification power.support vector machine, classification method, statistical learning theory, electric load prediction, optical character recognition, predicting bankruptcy, risk classification
Annotated record of the detailed examination of Mn deposits from the Danish Ingolf-Expedition
No full textThe author analysed a collection of 91 tub-specimens, taken during the two voyages of the Ingolf-expedition in the summers of 1895 and 1896
Note on the calibration of executive compensation models
No full textThis note is intended for researchers who want to implement the Dittmann and Maug (2007) calibration method. This method allows to test a complete principal-agent model with individual-level data on executive pay. The method consists of two steps. First, the principal-agent model is simplified so that it can be calibrated to the data for an individual CEO. After that, the calibrated model yields predictions about the optimal contract of this CEO, and these predictions can then be compared to observed contracts. This note contains step-by-step instructions on how to replicate the core results of Dittmann and Maug (2007) and Dittmann, Maug, and Spalt (2010). We report intermediate results for an example CEO, so that different parts of the program code can be tested individually
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