7,886 research outputs found
A Graph-based Similarity Function for CBDT: Acquiring and Using New Information
No full textFil: Contiggiani, Federico. Universidad Nacional de Río Negro. Instituto de Investigación en Políticas Públicas y Gobierno. Río Negro. Argentina.Fil: Delbianco, Fernando. Instituto de Matemática de Bahía Blanca, CONICET - Universidad Nacional del Sur. Buenos Aires. Argentina.Fil: Tohmé, Fernando. Instituto de Matemática de Bahía Blanca, CONICET - Universidad Nacional del Sur. Buenos Aires. Argentina.One of the consequences of persistent technological change is that it force individuals to make decisions under extreme uncertainty. This means that traditional decision-making frameworks cannot be applied. To address this issue we introduce a variant of Case-Based Decision Theory, in which the solution to a problem obtains in terms of the distance to previous problems. We formalize this by defining a space based on an orthogonal basis of features of problems. We show how this framework evolves upon the acquisition of new information, namely features or values of them arising in new problems. We discuss how this can be useful to evaluate decisions based on not yet existing data
What is a relevant control? : An algorithmic proposal
No full textIndividualized inference (or prediction) is an approach to data analysis that is increasingly relevant thanks to the availability of large datasets. In this paper, we present an algorithm that starts by detecting the relevant observations for a given query. Further refinement of that subsample is obtained by selecting the ones with the largest Shapley values. The probability distribution over this selection allows to generate synthetic controls, which in turn can be used to generate a robust inference (or prediction). Data collected from repeating this procedure for different queriesprovides a deeper understanding of the general process that generates the data.Fil: Delbianco, Fernando Andrés. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca. Instituto de Matemática Bahía Blanca. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Matemática. Instituto de Matemática Bahía Blanca; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Economía; ArgentinaFil: Tohmé, Fernando. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca. Instituto de Matemática Bahía Blanca. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Matemática. Instituto de Matemática Bahía Blanca; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Economía; ArgentinaReunión Anual de la Asociación Argentina de Economía PolíticaArgentinaAsociación Argentina de Economía Polític
Quantifying worldwide economic distress
No full textThis paper proposes a new measure for worldwide economic distress, which can bedescribed as the proportion of the gross domestic product (GDP) affected by countrylevel financial crises. It proves that this measure has the desirable properties of fair and representative indices. It also adequately justifies the beliefs of some economists that financial crises have negative effects on economicperformance.Fil: Delbianco, Fernando Andrés. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca. Instituto de Matemática Bahía Blanca. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Matemática. Instituto de Matemática Bahía Blanca; ArgentinaFil: Tohmé, Fernando Abel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca. Instituto de Matemática Bahía Blanca. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Matemática. Instituto de Matemática Bahía Blanca; ArgentinaFil: Fioriti, Andres. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca. Instituto de Matemática Bahía Blanca. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Matemática. Instituto de Matemática Bahía Blanca; Argentin
Sobre as práticas e reflexões publicitárias de Fernando Pessoa
No full textNeste texto, a autora analisa alguns trabalhos publicitários de Fernando Pessoa, bem
como algumas das suas reflexões sobre esta actividade. É dada especial atenção ao slogan
“Primeiro estranha-se. Depois entranha-se”, analisado sobre a perspectiva das funções
e propriedades deste constituinte da mensagem publicitária. Por fim, recorda-se
um recente slogan que recupera o clássico de Fernando Pessoa.
On this article, the author analyses some advertising texts created by Fernando Pessoa and
some of his thoughts about this activity. The main attention goes to the famous slogan “Primeiro
estranha-se. Depois entranha-se”, analysed through the principles of the functions
and proprieties of this element of advertisements. Finally, the author presents a recent slogan, constructed through the slogan of the Portuguese writer
Exports, Terms of Trade and Economic Growth: Evidence from Countries with Different Level of Openness
No full textThis paper explores the effects of the ratio exports/GDP and the terms of trade on growth among countries with different level of development and openness. These effects vary among subgroups of countries with different openness and per development level. Nonetheless, in general the evidence seems to support the hypothesis stated in this research. In less developed or better endowed for export countries one or both of the explanatory variables mentioned above encourage for economic growth. Specifically, in advanced economies only the ratio exports/GDP is growth promoting when these are open, and have high per capita but small global GDP and/or relative advantages to be growth export-led. In turn, exports or and the terms of trade trends to promote growth in lower middle income countries. Unfortunately, the surprising results came from the poorest countries. They do not are benefited from a more favourable foreign environment. On the contrary, exports are not significant while an improvement in the terms of trade diminishes their growth.Fil: Dabús, Carlos Darío. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca. Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Sociales del Sur. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Economía. Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Sociales del Sur; ArgentinaFil: Delbianco, Fernando Andrés. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca. Instituto de Matemática Bahía Blanca. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Matemática. Instituto de Matemática Bahía Blanca; Argentin
Growth, Inequality and Corruption: Evidence from Developing Countries
No full textThis paper presents eclectic evidence on the corruption-growth relationship in a wide sample of developing countries. Direct effects of corruption on growth are positive, while the indirect effects, through investment and human capital channels, are negative. Finally, inequality is not significant.Fil: Delbianco, Fernando Andrés. Universidad Nacional del Sur; ArgentinaFil: Dabús, Carlos Darío. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca. Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Sociales del Sur. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Economía. Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Sociales del Sur; ArgentinaFil: Caraballo Pou, María Angeles. Universidad de Sevilla; Españ
A Graph-based Similarity Function for CBDT: Acquiring and Using New Information
No full textWe present a formal model of decision-making under uncertainty, a variant of Case-Based Decision Theory, in which the solution to a problem obtains in terms of the distance to previous problems. We formalize this by defining a space based on an orthogonal basis of {em features} of problems. New problems are evaluated in this setting, determining the best available actions in terms of the distance to previous problems. This is particularly relevant in the case of Accounting, in which information systems have to support efficient ways of solving problems. We also show how this framework evolves upon the acquisition of new information, namely features or values of them arising in new problems. We discuss how this can be useful to evaluate decisions based on not yet existing data.Fil: Contiggiani, Federico Eduardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca. Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Sociales del Sur. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Economía. Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Sociales del Sur; ArgentinaFil: Delbianco, Fernando Andrés. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca. Instituto de Matemática Bahía Blanca. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Matemática. Instituto de Matemática Bahía Blanca; ArgentinaFil: Tohmé, Fernando. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca. Instituto de Matemática Bahía Blanca. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Matemática. Instituto de Matemática Bahía Blanca; ArgentinaLV Reunión Anual online Asociación Argentina de Economía PolíticaOnlineArgentinaAsociación Argentina de Economía Polític
Markov Chains, Eigenvalues and the Stability of Economic Growth Processes
No full textIn this paper, we analyze economic growth processes, using per capita growth series of 87 countries from 1961 to 2018 taken from the World Bank database, under the assumption that they followed Markov processes. We look for the regimes guiding those growth processes and define Markov chains according to which the time series switch from one regime to another. Our findings show that most of the growth processes are stable in the sense of remaining most of the time in a dominant regime. Hence, the main insight that can be obtained from our analysis is that growth processes can be better understood in terms of their idiosyncratic dominant regimes.Fil: Delbianco, Fernando Andrés. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca. Instituto de Matemática Bahía Blanca. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Matemática. Instituto de Matemática Bahía Blanca; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Economía; ArgentinaFil: Fioriti, Andres. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Economía; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca. Instituto de Matemática Bahía Blanca. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Matemática. Instituto de Matemática Bahía Blanca; ArgentinaFil: Tohmé, Fernando Abel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca. Instituto de Matemática Bahía Blanca. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Matemática. Instituto de Matemática Bahía Blanca; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Economía; Argentin
Symbolic Time Series and Causality Detection: an Uneasy Alliance
No full textFil: Contiggiani, Federico Eduardo. Universidad Nacional de Río Negro. Instituto de Investigación en Políticas Públicas y Gobierno. Río Negro; Argentina.Fil: Delbianco, Fernando. Instituto de Matemática de Bahía Blanca, CONICET - Universidad Nacional del Sur. Buenos Aires. Argentina.Fil: Fioriti, Andrés. Instituto de Matemática de Bahía Blanca, CONICET - Universidad Nacional del Sur. Buenos Aires. Argentina.Fil: Tohmé, Fernando. Instituto de Matemática de Bahía Blanca, CONICET - Universidad Nacional del Sur. Buenos Aires. Argentina.Symbolic Time Series Analysis (STSA) is a quantitative dominant mixed method applied in Economics and other Social Sciences as a way of reducing the impact of noise on data and to exhibit more clearly the evolution of time series. We show that such transformation from numerical to symbolic series may fail to preserve relevant properties of the original series. We focus, in particular, on the existence of causal relations among series. Well known methods of detection of causality, like Transfer Entropy or Granger’s Test can either yield non-existing causal relations or miss some actually existing ones, which is highly relevant for a sound application of a mixed method like STSA
A Methodology to Answer to Individual Queries: Finding Relevant and Robust Controls
No full textIn this paper we present the guidelines for an estimation and inference method aimed to answer questions to databases about new potential entries. The idea is to classify the data and find entries similar to that about which the query is posed, and use it to generate control observations as to find the results in terms of them, instead of the entire database. This amounts to a trade-off between robustness and relevance. This allows inferring an adequate answer to a query. While a solution exists,it is not constructive and requires to explore possible alternative definitions of similarity as well as distributions that fit to the selected data. We illustrate these ideas with six cases in which the answer obtains in a linear regression.Fil: Delbianco, Fernando Andrés. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca. Instituto de Matemática Bahía Blanca. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Matemática. Instituto de Matemática Bahía Blanca; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Economía; ArgentinaFil: Fioriti, Andres. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca. Instituto de Matemática Bahía Blanca. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Matemática. Instituto de Matemática Bahía Blanca; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Economía; ArgentinaFil: Tohmé, Fernando Abel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca. Instituto de Matemática Bahía Blanca. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Matemática. Instituto de Matemática Bahía Blanca; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Economía; Argentin
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