1,721,512 research outputs found
Global Imbalances and the Accumulation of Risk. CEPS Policy Brief No. 189, June 12 2009
Full text linkIn his latest Policy Brief, Daniel Gros gives a new angle on why the existence of current account ‘imbalances’ should provoke the greatest financial crisis in living history if the raison d’être of a financial system is to deal with imbalances (between savers and investors). He argues that one has to take into account the way current account deficits are financed and how flow imbalances accumulated into large stock disequilibria. In his view, the crisis was the product of a mismatch between the demand for safe, liquid and short-term assets by foreign central banks, which were accumulating large reserves, and the huge supply provided by US households of long-term US mortgage debt
A world out of balance? Special Report of the CEPS Macroeconomic Policy Group. CEPS Paperbacks. April 2006
Full text linkOver the last decade the global economy has been on a dynamic path with ever-increasing US current account deficits financed by emerging market surpluses. This report argues that the forces driving this development are now abating and might even reverse soon, forcing an adjustment in asset markets and the global economy. The global supply of savings is likely to shrink soon, with investment in emerging markets growing strongly and consumption in oil rich countries adjusting gradually to the windfall from high oil prices. This combination should lead to higher real interest rates and a cooling of the housing price bubbles that have developed in many areas; with asymmetric effects on the US economy which should slow much more than the eurozone. A gradual resorption of the US external deficit is thus possible without a crash of the USD.
The key issue for this gradual adjustment is whether US policy-makers will accept a prolonged period of weaker growth, because a reduction of the growth rate in domestic demand by about 1 percentage point over several years is a conditio sine qua non for a reduction in the US external deficit towards more sustainable levels. Since this lower US growth will likely drag down global growth, a cautious approach to the reduction of the US current account deficit is likely, with the adjustment taking place over a few business cycles. If, however, the process is unduly delayed by US policies resisting this necessary slowing down of domestic demand growth or by the rest of the world failing to pick up the baton, the odds of a disorderly adjustment will increase dramatically. In fact, it is extremely important that the US deficit starts shrinking soon in light of the report’s finding that the underlying external financing needs are probably even larger than officially reported
After the EU Elections, Before the Constitution Referenda, Can the EU Communicate Better? CEPS Policy Briefs No. 55, 1 July 2004
Full text link[From the Introduction]. The European Union suffers from not only a democratic but also a communication deficit. In the same way as both problems are intertwined, so are the symptoms. The last elections to the European Parliament suffered from a record low turnout and the election campaigns were run mainly on themes relating to domestic politics, resembling small plebiscites on the government’s performance at the national level (Kurpas et al., 2004). Only Eurosceptic parties made strong gains, advocating the withdrawal of their countries or strong downgrading of the EU’s competences. These results highlighted two painful realities. First, they re-confirmed the trend since the first EP elections in 1979 that citizens increasingly see less reason to vote in elections that do not give them ‘a real choice’ such as voting for the Commission president or to express their socio-economic preferences by voting for a party that can deliver on these preferences if it comes to power. Second, voter apathy indicates that the importance of decisions at the Community level, along with the role of the European Parliament and its impact on national policy, is not yet established among citizens. Some of the reasons for this failure are structural, such as the lack of a strong European identity; some are legal or institutional and thus hard to change. For instance, as long as the parties represented in European Parliament do not emancipate themselves from their national counterparts and manage to run an election campaign with candidates for the Commission presidency, campaign dynamics and other turn-out are not likely to change
Why Europe will suffer more. CEPS Policy Brief No. 194, 16 July 2009
Full text linkEven though the financial crisis might have started in the US, CEPS Director Daniel Gros finds in a new CEPS Policy Brief that even more combustible material had accumulated in Europe, and that therefore that it likely that the cost will be higher here and the recovery slower than on the other side of the Atlantic. This conclusion is based on a careful analysis of two indicators of looming financial instability: credit expansion (or leverage) and asset price bubbles
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Full text linkThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
The stability and growth pact: lessons from the great recession.
Full text linkWhile current instruments of EU economic policy coordination helped stave off a full-scale depression, the post-2007 global financial and economic crisis has revealed a number of weaknesses in the Stability and Growth Pact, the EU framework for fiscal surveillance and fiscal policy coordination. This paper provides a diagnosis of how the SGP faired ahead and during the present crisis and offers a first comprehensive review of the ongoing academic and policy debate, including an account of the reform proposals adopted by the Commission on 29 September 2010. In our view, the current system of EU rules is unbalanced. It consists of (i) very specific provisions on how to conduct fiscal policy making in normal times with no effective enforcement mechanisms, and of (ii) no or extremely tight provisions for really bad economic times, like the Great Recession. A two-pronged approach as outlined in this report is needed to revive the Pact: tighter enforcement, coupled with broader macroeconomic surveillance, in good times and an open window for exceptionally bad times, including a crisis resolution mechanism at the EU level.Stability and Growth Pact, EU, Europe, the euro, Great Recession, fiscal sovereignty
2012),“A European Deposit Insurance and Resolution
No full textAbstract The eurozone is caught in a 'diabolical loop' in which weak domestic banking systems damage sovereign fiscal positions and conversely, in which risky sovereign positions disproportionately threaten domestic banking stability. A European-level banking system could go a long way towards breaking this unfortunate loop and stabilising the eurozone. This would require a European safety net for cross-border banks. This paper sketches the building blocks of a European Deposit Insurance Fund. We calculate that such a Fund would amount to € 55 billion for the 35 largest European banks. This Fund could be created over ten years through risk based deposit insurance premiums levied on the top 35 banks. Once fully up and running, the Fund could also deal with the resolution of one or more of these 35 banks. The Fund will then turn into a European Deposit Insurance and Resolution Fund. The paper aims to promote debate among policy-makers, industry and academia. * Dirk Schoenmaker is Professor at the Duisenberg School of Finance in Amsterdam. Daniel Gros is Director of CEPS. CEPS Working Documents are intended to give an indication of work being conducted within CEPS' research programmes and to stimulate reactions from other experts in the field. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent any institution with which they are affiliated
Can austerity be self-defeating?
Full text linkWith European governments cutting back on spending, many are asking whether this could make matters worse. In the UK for instance, recent OECD estimates suggest that 'austerity' will lead to another recession, which in turn may lead to a higher debt-to-GDP ratio than before. As the debate heats up, the following two articles attempt to provide some cool economic logic: Credible austerity plans are required by Daniel Gros and Why austerity can become self-defeating for member states of a currency union by Rainer Maurer
Variations on the Author
Full text link“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
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