1,721,115 research outputs found
Cycles in crime and economy: leading, lagging and coincident behaviors
No full textIn the last decades, the interest in the relationship between crime and business cycle has widely increased. It is a diffused opinion that a causal relationship goes from economic variables to criminal activities. This work aims to verify this proposition by using the dynamic factor model to analyze the common cyclical components of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and a large set of criminal types. Italy is the case study for the time span 1991:1 - 2004:12. The purpose is twofold: on the one hand we verify if such a
relationship does exist; on the other hand we select what crime types are related to the business cycle and if they are leading, coincident or lagging.The study finds that most of the crime types show a counter-cyclical behavior with respect to the overall economic performance, but only a few of them have an evident
relationship with the business cycle. Furthermore, some crime offenses, such as bankruptcy, embezzlement and fraudulent insolvency, seem to anticipate business cycle,
in line with recent global events
Does more crime mean fewer jobs? An ARDL model
Full text linkThis paper analyses how a set of economic variables and a deterrence variable affect criminal activity. Furthermore, it highlights the extent to which crime is detrimental for the economic activity. The case study is Italy for the time span 1970 up to 2004. An Autoregressive Distributed Lags approach is employed to assess the cointegration status of the variables under investigation. A Granger causality test is also implemented to establish temporal interrelationships. The main finding is that all crime typologies, but homicides and fraud, have a crowding-out effect on legal economic activity, reducing the employment rate
The effect of socio-economic and emotional factors on gambling behaviour
No full textGambling represents a channel through which some relevant aspects of our social life, such as audacity, competition and risk, manifest themselves. Gambling is both a pleasing diversion and a way of socialisation, where gratification and problematic issues alternate. Most gamblers are social players who participate in games without any relevant implications on their life, regardless of how frequently they engage in the activity. Unfortunately, in some cases gaming activities can have a dramatic impact on the player to the point that he/she has little control over them. In such cases, the approach to gaming can be defined as critical or even pathological. Pathological gambling is a serious form of addiction that causes gamblers to suffer from social and financial problems as they constantly look for ways to increase their “dose”. This study proposes a bivariate ordered probit approach aimed at examining the emotional factors of gambling expenditures and problematic behaviour or addiction while also controlling for socio-economic determinants. It is based on a survey among 1,315 gamblers in Sardinia (Italy) in the time span from June 2004 to March 2005. To measure gambling-related problems and gaming addiction we use survey responses on the existence of problems caused by game participation (in terms of psychological, relational, economic, labour difficulties directly linked to gambling) and on the need for help and/or the intention to stop the gambling experience. The findings show that women bet less than men and that income and gambling frequency are positively correlated with the amount of money allocated to gambling. Furthermore, having a sense of omnipotence and being willing to replay in case of a win increase the propensity to bet more money. Notably, women have a higher probability to be problematic gamblers after controlling for all other characteristics. Income is negatively associated with problematic gamblers while those who experience guilt or frustration after a loss and bet a higher amount of money have a higher probability of exhibiting gambling-related problems. Those who have other players in their family (wife/husband, children, brother/sister, parents and grandparents), do not play alone and gamble for many hours a day have a higher probability to become pathological gamblers. In addition, income positively affects the probability to have pathological consequences while education is negatively correlated to it. Finally, experiencing satisfaction in case of a win, disappointment in case of loss and excitement in the middle of the game is negatively associated with pathological players
Cycles in crime and economy: leading, lagging and coincident behaviors
Full text linkIn the last decades, the interest in the relationship between crime and business cycle has widely increased. It is a diffused opinion that a causal relationship goes from economic variables to criminal activities. This work aims to verify this proposition by using the dynamic factor model to analyze the common cyclical components of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and a large set of criminal types. Italy is the case study for the time span 1991:1 - 2004:12. The purpose is twofold: on the one hand we verify if such a
relationship does exist; on the other hand we select what crime types are related to the business cycle and if they are leading, coincident or lagging.The study finds that most of the crime types show a counter-cyclical behavior with respect to the overall economic performance, but only a few of them have an evident
relationship with the business cycle. Furthermore, some crime offenses, such as bankruptcy, embezzlement and fraudulent insolvency, seem to anticipate business cycle,
in line with recent global events
The economic consequences of crime in Italy
No full textThis paper employs provincial data to study the relationship between several crime typologies, namely murder, robbery, extortion and fraud, and economic output in Italy. We employ a spatial econometric approach where the spatial proximity is defined by a measure of physical distance between locations, in order to take into account possible spill-over effects. The results of the spatial estimation suggest that criminal activities, namely murder and robbery, exhibit a negative impact on Italian gross domestic product while fraud and total crime do not affect economic output and that there are beneficial spill-overs from neighbouring provinces
Crime as tourism externality
Full text linkThis paper analyses the linkage between tourism and crime with particular focus on the distortions generated onto criminal activities by the presence of visitors.
Controlling for socio-demographic and economic variables, we empirically investigate the contribution of tourist arrivals to different types of crimes for 103 Italian provinces and for the year 2005. Possible spill-over effects of crime are taken into account by testing two spatial models (one spatial lag model and one spatial
error model). We also test the hypothesis according to which the different geography of tourist destinations - i.e. urban, mountain, marine etc- alters the impact
of tourism on crime. Finally, we measure the social cost of crime associated with tourist arrivals
Counting the cost of crime in Italy
No full textThe aim of this paper is to gauge the cost of crime in Italy by concentrating on a subset of offences covering about 64% of total recorded crime in year 2006.
Following the breakdown of costs put forward by Brand and Price, we focus on the costs in anticipation, as a consequence and in response to a specific offence. The
estimated total social cost is more than € 38 billion, which amounts to about 2.6% of Italy’s GDP. To show the usefulness of these measures, we borrow the elasticity
estimates from recent studies concerning the determinants of crime in Italy and calculate the cost associated with the surge in crime fuelled by unemployment and pardons. Indeed, in both cases such costs are substantial, implying that they should no longer be skipped when assessing the relative desirability of public policies towards crime
A Time varying parameter approach to analyze the macroeconomic consequences of crime
Full text linkCriminal activity performs like a tax on the entire economy:
it discourages domestic and foreign direct investments,
it reduces firms’ competitiveness, and reallocates resources
creating uncertainty and inefficiency. Although the impact
of economic variables on crime has been widely investigated,
there is not much concern about crime also affecting the
overall economic performance. This work aims to bridge
this gap by presenting an empirical analysis of the macroeconomic consequences of criminal activity. Italy is the case study for the time span 1979-2002. Dealing with a state space framework, a time varying parameter approach is employed to measure the impact of criminality on real Gross
Domestic Product along time, and to measure the asymmetric
impact in recession and expansion periods. The analysis
is completed evaluating the effects of crime fluctuations in
the long period by an impulse response analysis
The Role of family in suicide rate in Italy
Full text linkWe use national panel data at provincial level to investigate the relationship between suicide rates and socio-economic factors in Italy. The role of family, drug and alcohol consumption, social conformism and population density are the main factors in explaining the suicide rate in Italy. In a further step, we check for the differences
in the suicide determinants between southern and northern provinces. The findings show that the number and size of families as well as alcohol or drug abuse play a key
role in the northern provinces, while density and social conformism appear to be the main factors in the South
A Note on Marginal Deterrence: Evidence
No full textEmpirical evidence of the marginal deterrent effect is provided. Exploring a data set of kidnapping crimes in Italy between 1960 and 2012, changes in Italian policy regarding sanctions for kidnapping and their associated impact on murders is considered. Deaths associated with kidnappings increase in prevalence when the kidnapping sanction increased, causing a decrease in the marginal sanction for murder. Death rates reversed when enhanced sanctions for murder were later introduced
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