31 research outputs found
Model output used in the manuscript "Micro and macro parametric uncertainty in climate change prediction: a large ensemble perspective"
No full textThis *.zip file contains the model output from ensemble simulations for the Lorenz 84-Stommel 61 model (hereafter L84-S61; Van Veen et al, 2001; Daron and Stainforth, 2013). To run these simulations, we used the E-forth ensemble generator (de Melo Viríssimo and Stainforth, in preparation), which is a MATLAB toolbox that allows for large ensembles of low-dimensional dynamical systems to be run and studied in a systematic way (de Melo Viríssimo and Stainforth, 2023). These model outputs are presented and discussed in the Preprint "Micro and macro parametric uncertainty in climate change prediction: a large ensemble perspective". The manuscript describes the experiments performed, the parameter values used and the modifications done to the original L84-S61 model. For this matter, we also refer you to Daron and Stainforth (2013) and de Melo Viríssimo et al. (2024). All files uploaded were generated from simulations run by the lead author. For specific information about each file uploaded, please refer to the README file. The details of each experiment are also presented in the supplementary materials of the preprint above. If you have any questions, please feel free to contact me.
References: Van Veen et al. (2001): https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1034/j.1600-0870.2001.00241.x Daron and Stainforth (2013): https://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034021 de Melo Viríssimo and Stainforth (2023): https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-14755 de Melo Viríssimo et al. (2024): https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0180870 de Melo Viríssimo and Stainforth (in preparation): to appea
On estimating local long-term climate trends
No full textClimate sensitivity is commonly taken to refer to the equilibrium change in the annual mean global surface temperature following a doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. Evaluating this variable remains of significant scientific interest, but its global nature makes it largely irrelevant to many areas of climate science, such as impact assessments, and also to policy in terms of vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning. Here, we focus on local changes and on the way observational data can be analysed to inform us about how local climate has changed since the middle of the nineteenth century. Taking the perspective of climate as a constantly changing distribution, we evaluate the relative changes between different quantiles of such distributions and between different geographical locations for the same quantiles. We show how the observational data can provide guidance on trends in local climate at the specific thresholds relevant to particular impact or policy endeavours. This also quantifies the level of detail needed from climate models if they are to be used as tools to assess climate change impact. The mathematical basis is presented for two methods of extracting these local trends from the data. The two methods are compared first using surrogate data, to clarify the methods and their uncertainties, and then using observational surface temperature time series from four locations across Europe
Assessing pricing assumptions for weather index insurance in a changing climate
No full textAbstractWeather index insurance is being offered to low-income farmers in developing countries as an alternative to traditional multi-peril crop insurance. There is widespread support for index insurance as a means of climate change adaptation but whether or not these products are themselves resilient to climate change has not been well studied. Given climate variability and climate change, an over-reliance on historical climate observations to guide the design of such products can result in premiums which mislead policyholders and insurers alike, about the magnitude of underlying risks. Here, a method to incorporate different sources of climate data into the product design phase is presented. Bayesian Networks are constructed to demonstrate how insurers can assess the product viability from a climate perspective, using past observations and simulations of future climate. Sensitivity analyses illustrate the dependence of pricing decisions on both the choice of information, and the method for incorporating such data. The methods and their sensitivities are illustrated using a case study analysing the provision of index-based crop insurance in Kolhapur, India. We expose the benefits and limitations of the Bayesian Network approach, weather index insurance as an adaptation measure and climate simulations as a source of quantitative predictive information. Current climate model output is shown to be of limited value and difficult to use by index insurance practitioners. The method presented, however, is shown to be an effective tool for testing pricing assumptions and could feasibly be employed in the future to incorporate multiple sources of climate data
Visualization For Public-Resource Climate Modeling
No full textClimateprediction.net aims to harness the spare CPU cycles of a million individual users PCs to run a massive ensemble of climate simulations using an up-to-date, full-scale 3D atmosphere-ocean climate model. Although it has many similarities with other public-resource computing projects, it is distinguished by the complexity of its computational task, its system demands and the level of participant interaction, data volume and analysis procedures. For simulations running on individual PCs, there is a requirement for visualizations that are compelling and readily grasped, since most users will be interested in the output from the model, but will have a limited level of scientific experience. This paper describes the design and implementation of these visualizations.Eurographics / IEEE VGTC Symposium on Visualizatio
The works of Richard Brinsley Sheridan, dramas, poems, translations, speeches, and unfinished sketches. With a memoir of the author, a collection of ana, and ten chalk drawings.
No full textMode of access: Internet
Lifelong learning in eastern and western culture organizations in Singapore
No full textIn Singapore, the government has recognized the importance of lifelong learning at the workplace. It is the new educational reality as knowledge is highly marketable in the knowledge society and organizations will benefit and prosper so long as they continue to capitalize upon their intellectual resources. All companies operating in Singapore will need to assume responsibility in establishing an organization learning curriculum, both formal and informal but as Singapore is a multicultural environment with companies from different parts of the world, it can be hypothesized that they will react differently to this need. The main purpose of this study is to seek a better understanding of the impact of Eastern and Western cultural differences on the development of lifelong learning at their workplace in a learning organization in Singapore. The instruments used in this study include questionnaires and semi-structured interviews with employees from an Eastern-Singapore and a Western-German culture case-study organizations. The questionnaires comprised four main measures concerning: (1) The development of subject matter expertise; (2) Problem-solving techniques; (3) The development of reflective skills and (4) The climate of personal and social relationships in the organizations studied. Both quantitative and qualitative data show that the Eastern-Singaporean and Western-German culture case-study companies have positive patterns of development towards establishing some form of corporate curriculum. There is no significant difference in the way they drive for lifelong learning at workplace. On the other hand there are some differences such as the intensity and scope of training which can be explained by reference to theories of cultural difference. On the other hand, there is no evidence to show that the case-study companies provided skills training in areas outside the employees' current domains. This somewhat negative conclusion has implications that it is not just culture that explains the restricted training programmes of these companies. Perhaps, the local economic situation of Singapore, under pressure for business effectiveness, is a much more decisive factor encouraging managers to interpret their needs for training in some restricted way. Based on the research, it is concluded that in Singapore where globalization activities are very intense, the impact of business survival is closing the gap between the Eastern and Western culture organizations in the field of Gaining development. It is also concluded that lifelong learning at the workplace of both the Eastern-Singaporean and Western-German culture organizations is very much limited to the current domains that the employees are assigned to
Uncertainty and climate change policy
No full textThe paper consists of a summary of the main sources of uncertainty about climate change, and a discussion of the major implications for economic analysis and the formulation of climate policy. Uncertainty typically implies that the optimal policy is more risk-averse than otherwise, and therefore enhances the case for action to mitigate climate change.climate change, uncertainty
Perspectives on the quality of climate information for adaptation decision support
No full textWe summarise the contributions to the Topical Collection on quality of climate information for adaptation decision support. Based on these contributions, we draw some further lessons for the development of high-quality climate information and services, bridging between a “credibility-first” paradigm (exemplified by top-down information provision from systematic downscaling or impact projections) and a “salience-first” paradigm (exemplified by user-led tailored information products or storylines) by looking to identify their respective strengths and use cases. We emphasise that a more nuanced collective understanding of the dimensions of information quality in climate information and services would be beneficial to users and providers and ultimately support more confident and effective climate adaptation decisions and policy-making
Trends in winter warm spells in the Central England temperature record
No full textAn important impact of climate change on agriculture and the sustainability of ecosystems is the increase of extended warm spells during winter. We apply crossing theory to the Central England Temperature timeseries of winter daily maximum temperatures to quantify how increased occurrence of higher temperatures translates into more frequent, longer lasting and more intense winter warm spells. We find since the late 1800s an overall 2-3-fold increase in the frequency and duration of winter warm spells. A winter warm spell of 5 days duration with daytime maxima above 13°C has a return period that was often over 5 years but now is consistently below 4 years. Week-long warm intervals that return on average every 5 years now consistently exceed ~13 °C. The observed changes in the temporal pattern of environmental variability will affect the phenology of ecological processes and the structure and functioning of ecosystems
