13 research outputs found
Using the experience curve to analyze the cost development of the combined cycle gas turbine
No full textAnalyzing technological change using experience curves - a study of the combined cycle gas turbine
No full textThe aim of this thesis was to analyze and discuss the use of experience curves as a possible instrument for assessing future developments of a specific energy technology: the combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT). The CCGT technology is expected to figure prominently in future energy systems. In addition, assessing the future price developments of the CCGT technology provides an indication of the price levels that emerging technologies, e.g. renewable energy technologies, will have to reach in order to compete with it.Experience curves describe the observed phenomenon that the cost of a product decreases and/or performance increases by a certain percentage every time cumulative experience doubles. Cost is seldom publicly available and price is often used as a proxy for cost. Doing so introduces market behavior into the experience curve, which can — unless it is possible to screen for — mask the actual experience effect.The major determinants of future electricity-generation costs for the CCGT technology — specific investment price, thermal efficiency and natural-gas price — were investigated using experience curves. It was concluded that experience curves were efficient for analyzing the developments of specific investment price and thermal efficiency. The experience curve did not prove to be a feasible method for projecting future natural-gas prices since no correlation between price and experience could be established. The implications of the expected developments for the future costs of generating electricity from CCGT plants were also discussed
Using the experience curve to analyze the cost development of the combined cycle gas turbine
No full textAnalyzing technological change using experience curves - a study of the combined cycle gas turbine
No full textThe aim of this thesis was to analyze and discuss the use of experience curves as a possible instrument for assessing future developments of a specific energy technology: the combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT). The CCGT technology is expected to figure prominently in future energy systems. In addition, assessing the future price developments of the CCGT technology provides an indication of the price levels that emerging technologies, e.g. renewable energy technologies, will have to reach in order to compete with it.Experience curves describe the observed phenomenon that the cost of a product decreases and/or performance increases by a certain percentage every time cumulative experience doubles. Cost is seldom publicly available and price is often used as a proxy for cost. Doing so introduces market behavior into the experience curve, which can — unless it is possible to screen for — mask the actual experience effect.The major determinants of future electricity-generation costs for the CCGT technology — specific investment price, thermal efficiency and natural-gas price — were investigated using experience curves. It was concluded that experience curves were efficient for analyzing the developments of specific investment price and thermal efficiency. The experience curve did not prove to be a feasible method for projecting future natural-gas prices since no correlation between price and experience could be established. The implications of the expected developments for the future costs of generating electricity from CCGT plants were also discussed
Analyzing technological change in low carbon power generation
No full textIn order to mitigate climate change while satisfying the growing global electricity demand, technological change within the power generating system is crucial. New low carbon technologies need to replace the current more carbon-intensive options. Promoting this change – at the necessary pace – requires policy instruments; creating efficient policy instruments requires a comprehensive understanding of the dynamics of technological change and current trends.
This four-paper thesis addresses the development, deployment, and diffusion of low carbon power generating technologies. The purpose is to better understand the drivers behind technological change, to explore current trends and assess future developments, and to consider the range of impacts of policy instruments in this context. Paper I uses experience curves to analyze the historical development of a technology expected to play a prominent role in future power generating systems, the combined cycle gas turbine. The results indicate that the rapid price decrease observed at the time rather reflected a temporary market behavior than an underlying production cost decrease. Analysis of other factors, e.g., technical performance improvements is an important complement to economic improvement analysis. Paper II investigates the deployment and diffusion of CO2-efficient power generating technologies in developed and developing countries. The results demonstrate that historical CO2-efficiencies tend to converge globally toward more efficient technologies. This suggests that if developments of new low carbon technologies are induced by, e.g., imposing stringent CO2 constraints on developed countries, these technologies will likely diffuse to regions with less stringent climate policies, e.g., developing countries, leading to additional CO2 reductions. Paper III explores the implications of international carbon emission trading for the development and deployment of advanced power generating technologies. A cost-optimization energy system model is applied using experience curves to endogenously model technological change. The results indicate that in general inter-regional trading provides stronger incentives for improvements in fossil-based technologies than for deploying advanced renewable technologies. However, technological change is mainly influenced by the level of future emission limits and by whether these levels are known well in advance. The results also stress the importance of early markets for new technologies, as early investments may significantly influence future technology trajectories. Paper IV analyzes a potential early market for the emerging renewable energy technology, biomass integrated gasification combined cycle (BIGCC). Data from a plausible reference market, the Indian sugarcane industry, is used in the analysis applying experience curves in future cost development modeling. The results indicate a large potential for cost reductions, if learning opportunities are provided, but additional financial support is required to make the technology commercially viable. The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), using a project-by-project approach and at current carbon price levels, is likely to be sufficient to induce investments in the BIGCC technology to promote deployment and diffusion only once other measures have provided the initial support to create markets
Adoption of carbon dioxide efficient technologies and practices: An analysis of sector-specific convergence trends among 12 nations
No full textCarbon dioxide intensities in economic terms (GDP in PPP terms) in industrialized and developing countries have been shown to converge, and it has been argued that technology diffusion, leading to the use of similar technologies in all countries, is an important reason for this convergence. Indicators based on CO2 per output in PPP terms, however, give in comparison to physical indicators limited understanding of the process of technology diffusion. In order to analyze the technology diffusion hypothesis in more detail, we therefore study the trend in carbon dioxide emissions in relation to the production output in four separate sectors: iron and steel; paper, board and pulp; coal-fuelled power plants; and natural gas-fuelled power plants, in each of 12 countries, between 1980 and 1998. The indicators converge in each sector, indicating that across countries, technologies with more similar carbon dioxide efficiencies are used today than 25 years ago. We also find that at least some developing countries with high energy prices use more efficient technologies than industrialized countries with low energy prices
