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    Determinantes das taxas de juros à vista e futura no Brasil: uma análise do período 2007-2019

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    Nos últimos 25 anos, o Brasil esteve entre os países com as taxas de juros mais elevadas do mundo, com reflexos observados em vários campos da economia brasileira. Taxas de juros elevadas foram necessárias, principalmente nos anos iniciais do Plano Real, a partir de 1994. De 1997 a 1999, novamente podem ser observadas taxas de juros elevadas, em função das seguidas crises financeiras que assolaram o país, como a mexicana (1994), asiática (1997), russa (1998) e a brasileira (1999). Em meio às vulnerabilidades macroeconômicas, a autoridade monetária brasileira implantou o regime de metas de inflação com flutuação cambial, que propiciou uma trajetória sustentada de redução da taxa de juros. Após um período de relativa calmaria internacional, a eclosão da crise financeira de 2008, levou as autoridades monetárias brasileiras a promoverem uma rodada de queda das taxas de juros internas, como resposta aos efeitos recessivos e à ameaça de crise sistêmica que pairava sobre o sistema financeiro nacional. A partir de 2012, um conjunto de políticas de natureza intervencionista ocasionou redução da taxa Selic em momento de aceleração inflacionária. Tendo em vista os efeitos negativos sobre as expectativas dos agentes econômicos, foi necessário um aperto de política monetária e a interrupção da trajetória de queda da taxa de juros. À luz de tudo, constata-se que muitos fatores foram determinantes para a trajetória das taxas de juros brasileiras. Este trabalho tem como objetivo principal explicar, de forma empírica, os determinantes da taxa de juros à vista e futura, a partir da aplicação de um modelo econométrico multivariado de vetores autoregressivos (VAR) com correção de erros (VEC). A relação entre taxa à vista e futura se deve à observação intuitiva de que o mercado futuro antecipa a realização das expectativas vigentes no mercado à vista. A análise contempla os anos de 2017 a 2019, correspondendo ao período subsequente à grande crise financeira global de 2008. Os resultados demonstram que tanto a taxa à vista como o DI futuro podem ser determinados pelas flutuações da inflação, do nível de atividade econômica e taxa real de câmbio, além das próprias variáveis defasadas.In the last 25 years, Brazil was among the countries with the highest interest rates in the world, with consequences observed in several fields of the Brazilian economy. High interest rates were necessary, especially in the early years of the Real Plan, starting in 1994. From 1997 to 1999, high interest rates were again observed, due to the following financial crises that hit the country, such as the Mexican (1994), Asian (1997), Russian (1998) and Brazilian (1999). In the midst of macroeconomic vulnerabilities, the Brazilian monetary authority implemented the inflation targeting regime with exchange rate fluctuation, which provided a sustained decreasing track for the interest rate. After a period of relative international calm, the outbreak of the 2008 financial crisis led Brazilian monetary authorities to promote a new round of declining domestic interest rates, in response to the recessive effects and the threat of systemic crisis that hung over the national financial system. As of 2012, a new set of interventionist policies led to a reduction in the Selic rate at a time of inflationary acceleration. In view of the negative effects on the expectations of economic agents, it was necessary to tighten monetary policy and interrupt the downward trend in interest rates. In light of that, it appears that many factors were determinant for the Brazilian interest rates over the years. This work has as main objective to explain, in an empirical way, the determinants of the spot and future interest rate, from the application of a multivariate econometric model of autoregressive vectors (VAR) with error correction (VEC). The relationship between the spot and the future rate is due to the intuitive observation that the future market anticipates the realization of the current market expectations. The period covers from 2007 to 2019, the aftermath of the great global financial crisis of 2008. The results show that both the spot rate and the DI-future can be determined by fluctuations in inflation, the level of economic activity, the real rate exchange rates, in addition to the lagged variables themselves

    Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis

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    The present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed

    Variations on the Author

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    “Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship

    Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis

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    We provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis

    Dispelling the Myths Behind First-author Citation Counts

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    We conducted a full-scale evaluative citation analysis study of scholars in the XML research field to explore just how different from each other author rankings resulting from different citation counting methods actually are, and to demonstrate the capability of emerging data and tools on the Web in supporting more realistic citation counting methods. Our results contest some common arguments for the continued use of first-author citation counts in the evaluation of scholars, such as high correlations between author rankings by first-author citation counts and other citation counting methods, and high costs of using more realistic citation counting methods that are not well-supported by the ISI databases. It is argued that increasingly available digital full text research papers make it possible for citation analysis studies to go beyond what the ISI databases have directly supported and to employ more sophisticated methods

    Author Index

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    koamabayili/VECTRON-author-checklist: VECTRON author checklist

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    We have done our best to complete the author checklist relating to the use of animals in the hut study. Note that the objective for the hut study was to evaluate the IRS treatment applications for residual efficacy against Anopheles mosquitoes, including the local An. coluzzii mosquito population. Cows were only used to attract mosquitoes into the huts and no tests were carried out directly on the cows. The author checklist is intended for use with studies where experiments are carried out on animals, which is why we have had such difficulty in completing this for the hut study, as many of the questions do not relate to how the cows were used

    Author Under Sail The Imagination of Jack London, 1893-1902

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    In Author Under Sail, Jay Williams offers the first complete literary biography of Jack London as a professional writer engaged in the labor of writing. It examines the authorial imagination in London's work, the use of imagination in both his fiction and nonfiction, and the ways he defined imagination in the creative process in his business dealings with his publishers, editors, and agents. In this first volume of a two-volume biography, Williams traverses the years 1893 to 1902, from London's "Story of a Typhoon" to The People of the Abyss. The Jack London who emerges in the pages of Author Under Sail is a writer whose partnership with publishers, most notably his productive alliance with George Brett of Macmillan, was one of the most formative in American literary history. London pioneered many author models during the heyday of realism and naturalism, blurring the boundaries of these popular genres by focusing on absorption and theatricality and the representation of the seen and unseen. London created an impassioned, sincere, and extremely personal realism unlike that of other American writers of the time. Author Under Sail is a literary tour de force that reveals the full range of London as writer, creative citizen, and entrepreneur at the same time it sheds light on the maverick side of machine-age literature.Intro -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Dedication -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- Introduction -- 1. Spirit Truth -- 2. From Absorption to Theatricality and Back Again -- 3. "I Will Build a New Present" -- 4. Sons as Authors -- 5. Fathers as Publishers -- 6. The Daughter as Author -- 7. Lovers as Authors -- 8. At Sea with the Family -- 9. Yellow News, Yellow Stories -- 10. The Return Home -- Notes -- Bibliography -- Index -- About Jay WilliamsIn Author Under Sail, Jay Williams offers the first complete literary biography of Jack London as a professional writer engaged in the labor of writing. It examines the authorial imagination in London's work, the use of imagination in both his fiction and nonfiction, and the ways he defined imagination in the creative process in his business dealings with his publishers, editors, and agents. In this first volume of a two-volume biography, Williams traverses the years 1893 to 1902, from London's "Story of a Typhoon" to The People of the Abyss. The Jack London who emerges in the pages of Author Under Sail is a writer whose partnership with publishers, most notably his productive alliance with George Brett of Macmillan, was one of the most formative in American literary history. London pioneered many author models during the heyday of realism and naturalism, blurring the boundaries of these popular genres by focusing on absorption and theatricality and the representation of the seen and unseen. London created an impassioned, sincere, and extremely personal realism unlike that of other American writers of the time. Author Under Sail is a literary tour de force that reveals the full range of London as writer, creative citizen, and entrepreneur at the same time it sheds light on the maverick side of machine-age literature.Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources.Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, YYYY. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries
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