6 research outputs found
Is Energy Policy on the Right Track for the Climate Target in the Korean Building Sector?
No full textIntegrating market and technology uncertainties into the projected cost of power technologies: a case of Korea
No full textLike many countries responding to climate change, Korea also faces an unprecedented transformation of its power sector into a low-carbon system. To evaluate the most advantageous combination of technologies and necessary policies for achieving the goals of such a transformation, this study decomposes the historical development of the total cost of five major power technologies in Korea into three cost components and identifies the underlying driving forces and variabilities of each. We then project the likely distribution of costs in 2030 using Monte-Carlo simulation and simulate the possible impact of climate and environmental policies on the economic landscape of competing technologies. Our results show that the business-as-usual dynamics of key techno-economic-market factors are not likely to secure the economic viability of the proposed energy transition in Korea. Introducing carbon prices or strict environmental policy is imperative in Korea to make renewables and less carbon-intensive gas power remain cost-competitive with coal power
RCP 8.5—A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions
No full textThis paper summarizes the main characteristics of the RCP8.5 scenario. The RCP8.5 combines assumption about high population and relatively slow income growth with modest rates of technological change and energy intensity improvements, leading in the long term to high energy demand and GHG emissions in absence of climate change policies. Compared to the total set of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs), RCP8.5 thus corresponds to the pathway with the highest greenhouse gas emissions. Using the IIASA Integrated Assessment Framework and the MESSAGE model for the development of the RCP8.5, we focus in this paper on two important extensions compared to earlier scenarios: (1) the development of spatially explicit air pollution projections, and (2) enhancements in the land-use and land-cover change projections. In addition, we explore scenario variants that use RCP8.5 as a baseline, and assume different degrees of greenhouse gas mitigation policies to reduce radiative forcing. Based on our modeling framework, we find it technically possible to limit forcing from RCP8.5 to lower levels comparable to the other RCPs (2.6 to 6 W/m2). Our scenario analysis further indicates that climate policy-induced changes of global energy supply and demand may lead to significant co-benefits for other policy priorities, such as local air pollution
A multi-model assessment of carbon neutrality pathways for Korea's power sector
No full textIn October 2021, Korea announced its mid-century carbon mitigation target of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050, reaffirming its commitment by enhancing its 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). This study employs six energy-economic and integrated assessment models to explore net-zero emission pathways and strategies for Korea's power sector, while assessing the associated costs and challenges. The findings underscore the complexity and urgency of this transition, with the power sector playing a pivotal role in balancing the dual challenges of rapidly growing electricity demand and full decarbonization. A shift toward a renewable-dominated power sector emerges as a robust strategy, though it poses unprecedented technological and economic challenges. Large-scale low-carbon technologies, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) and nuclear power, are identified as crucial solutions to reduce reliance on variable renewable energy sources and mitigate associated costs. Additionally, the study finds that current energy and climate policies are insufficient to meet the mid-century mitigation target, highlighting the urgent need for policy enhancements to bridge the gap and ensure the feasibility of Korea's carbon neutrality goal.
