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    Predicting Taiwan Stock Market Using Social Moods

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    近年來有許研究再探討透過分析社群網站上的資訊來預測未來的可能性當然,不管在什麼時期,投資者的情緒和股市的波動常常被放再一起討論,而隨著社群網站的快速發展,越來越多人願意在網路上宣洩他們的情緒,當然投資者也不例外,因此藉由分析他們的情緒來預測股市成為近幾年的熱門議題。 在這篇論文研究中,PTT是我們要分析的社群網站,有許多投資者在PTT的股市版上發表的他們對於股市的看法還有給予其他投資者的建議,透過分析裡面的資料可以了解到台灣投資者的行為與情緒,我們透過台灣大學編訂的NTUSD跟大連理工大學編定的DUTIRSD這兩個情緒字典來量化投資者的情緒並預測台灣兩個代表性的股市指數,分別為台股期貨指數(TX)與台股加權指數(TAIEX)。我們利用的移動視窗的概念並在每一個移動式窗內選取固定數量的特徵來進行預測,我們認為隨著時間的變化,造成股市震盪的因素也會改變,因此不應該選特定特徵來預測未來的每一天,我們透過均方根誤差(RMSE)來決定移動視窗的大小和選定特徵的數量,越小的RMSE代表當下的移動視窗大小和選定特徵數量有較大的預測能力。 每一天的股市都記錄著開盤價、最高價、最低價、收盤價,我們透過K-means分群演算法將四個價格區分成三類並透過投資者的情緒來預測隔日的股市的四個數值分別屬於哪一種狀態。In recent years, mining social media data to forecast the future has been a popular research. The stock market behavior and investor emotions are always bonded together. With the development of social media, people are willing the share their feelings on the social media including investor. In our study, we select PTT stock board as our platform, a forum gathering investors sharing their opinions, and crawl data on it. We calculate the emotion score through NTUSD and DUTIR sentiment dictionary and predict two representative stock market indices: Taiwan Futures Index and Taiwan Capitalization Weighted Stock Index. The concept of fixed-sized rolling window and fixed feature size are adopted in this thesis. That is, if the emotion cause the variation of stock market, the main causality might be different in different time span. The rolling window size and feature size are selected to our prediction model through lower Root Mean Square Error. There are four value recorded each day: opening value, intra-day highest value, intra-day lowest value and closing value. We classify these four value into three groups through K-means clustering algorithm and then conduct prediction

    A case study in the evaluation of English training courses using a version of the CIPP model as an evaluative tool

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    This thesis presents an evaluative case study of the 20 English training courses offered in the Applied English Department (AED) of an Institute, given the pseudonym W.G, in southern Taiwan. No evaluation had been done since the AED had been set up and using Stufflebeam’s CIPP (Context, Input, Process and Product) evaluation model this research was carried out. The purpose of the research was to attempt, through the gathering of qualitative data from a variety of sources and using a variety of research instruments, an evaluation of the 20 English training courses which were designed for and taken by students who hoped, mainly, to become children's English language teachers. The courses were examined through four key components, namely, "course aims and objectives", "course contents and materials", "course conduct and teaching-learning process" and "assessment and student performance". Data were gathered through questionnaires, interviews and the review of existing documents and was obtained from current students, directors of the AED, instructors, alumni and employers of alumni. The resultant data served to present a comprehensive overview of the AED and the 20 English training courses and furnished evidence sufficient to allow for a number of recommendations for improvement and change to emerge. Fundamentally it is not clear that there is sufficient congruence of students needs and the courses offered. It emerged that the AED would probably benefit from a refocusing of student needs, a review of AED structures and governance, uniform syllabus design and presentation, a review of student feedback on instructor performance and a number of fundamental adjustments to the courses, in particular, their content, teaching methodology and assessment. Overall the AED had many positive aspects all of which could be built on and added to as the results of the data suggested. It emerged that the CIPP evaluation model has, in the educational context, a lot to commend it and this has been illustrated in this research. If followed carefully it covers all aspects and features of a program and provides a methodical, all-embracing design which can produce useful material for exploration and adoption if appropriate. It is in most cases a positive program enhancing exercise designed to develop rather than close existing programs

    Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis

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    The present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed

    Variations on the Author

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    “Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship

    Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis

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    We provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis

    Dispelling the Myths Behind First-author Citation Counts

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    We conducted a full-scale evaluative citation analysis study of scholars in the XML research field to explore just how different from each other author rankings resulting from different citation counting methods actually are, and to demonstrate the capability of emerging data and tools on the Web in supporting more realistic citation counting methods. Our results contest some common arguments for the continued use of first-author citation counts in the evaluation of scholars, such as high correlations between author rankings by first-author citation counts and other citation counting methods, and high costs of using more realistic citation counting methods that are not well-supported by the ISI databases. It is argued that increasingly available digital full text research papers make it possible for citation analysis studies to go beyond what the ISI databases have directly supported and to employ more sophisticated methods

    Author Index

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    koamabayili/VECTRON-author-checklist: VECTRON author checklist

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    We have done our best to complete the author checklist relating to the use of animals in the hut study. Note that the objective for the hut study was to evaluate the IRS treatment applications for residual efficacy against Anopheles mosquitoes, including the local An. coluzzii mosquito population. Cows were only used to attract mosquitoes into the huts and no tests were carried out directly on the cows. The author checklist is intended for use with studies where experiments are carried out on animals, which is why we have had such difficulty in completing this for the hut study, as many of the questions do not relate to how the cows were used
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