120 research outputs found
Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis using Survey Data
No full textBecause of the importance of inflation expectations, Lloyd B. Thomas Jr. (Fall 1999, p. 125-44) reexamines "the evidence on the nature and performance of various measures of expected inflation, with special attention given to the issue of rationality" (p. 126). Thomas tests the unbiasedness hypothesis using the Livingston and Michigan survey forecasts for the 1960 to 1997 time period and is unable to reject the null hypothesis of unbiasedness. Unfortunately, two types of problems due to aggregation plague such tests: private information bias and micro-heterogeneity bias. Therefore, for these survey forecasts, consensus regressions should generally not be used to test rationality; rationality can only be tested at the individual level.
To Aggregate, Pool, or Neither: Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis Using Survey Data
No full textIt is well known that even if all forecasters are rational, estimated coefficients in unbiasedness regressions using consensus forecasts are inconsistent because forecasters have private information. However, if all forecasters face a common realization, pooled estimators are also inconsistent. In contrast, we show that when predictions and realizations are integrated and cointegrated, micro-homogeneity ensures that consensus and pooled estimators are consistent. Therefore, contrary to claims in the literature, in the absence of micro-homogeneity, pooling is not a solution to the aggregation problem. We reject micro-homogeneity for a number of forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. Therefore, for these variables unbiasedness can only be tested at the individual level.Rational Expectations, Micro-homogeneity, Heterogeneity Bias, Aggregation Bias, Survey Forecasts
Chinese Saving Dynamics: The Impact of GDP Growth and the Dependent Share
No full textChina’s national saving rate rose rapidly in the 2000s after declining through the late 1990s. These dynamics are not explained by precautionary motives, the institutional distribution of income, or reform related processes in general. Rather, we find a compelling explanation lies with GDP growth fluctuations and movement in the dependent share in population. We estimate a vector autoregressive model for the period 1978-2008, then generate in-sample simulations that successfully replicate the 2000s runup in the saving rate. Our out of sample forecasts show the saving rate dropping in the 2010s as the dependency share falls and GDP growth moderates.
The Rationality and Heterogeneity of Survey Forecasts of the Yen-Dollar Exchange Rate: A Reexamination
No full textThis paper examines the rationality and diversity of industry-level forecasts of the yen-dollar exchange rate collected by the Japan Center for International Finance. In several ways we update and extend the seminal work by Ito (1990). We compare three specifications for testing rationality: the ”conventional” bivariate regression, the univariate regression of a forecast error on a constant and other information set variables, and an error correction model (ECM). We find that the bivariate specification, while producing consistent estimates, suffers from two defects: first, the conventional restrictions are suffcient but not necessary for unbiasedness; second, the test has low power. However, before we can apply the univariate specification, we must conduct pretests for the stationarity of the forecast error. We find a unit root in the six-month horizon forecast error for all groups, thereby rejecting unbiasedness and weak effciency at the pretest stage. For the other two horizons, we find much evidence in favor of unbiasedness but not weak effciency. Our ECM rejects unbiasedness for all forecasters at all horizons. We conjecture that these results, too, occur because the restrictions test suffciency, not necessity. In our systems estimation and micro- homogeneity testing, we use an innovative GMM technique (Bonham and Cohen (2001)) that allows for forecaster cross-correlation due to the existence of common shocks and/or herd e ects. Tests of micro-homogeneity uniformly reject the hypothesis that forecasters across the four industries exhibit similar rationality characteristics.Rational Expectations, Heterogeneity, Exchange Rate, Survey Forecast
Dynamic multivariate analysis of a small open economy: the case of Hawaiʻi
No full textThe main objective of the dissertation is to apply recent advances in modern econometric analysis, namely cointegrating Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Bayesian VAR (BVAR) to a small open regional economy like Hawaii. This is accomplished in three related yet independent essays demonstrating how regional modeling and forecasting can benefit from these latest developments. The first essay concentrates on the cointegrating VAR analysis, applying it to Hawaii's premier industry-tourism. Recent research in the literature on identified cointegrating VARs emphasizes the need to rely on economic theory to impose weak exogeneity assumptions, guide the search for long-run just (over) identifying restrictions and shrink the model to the most parsimonious representation. While cointegration analysis has gradually appeared in the empirical tourism literature, the focus has been exclusively on the demand side with no use of the latest identification techniques. A complete Hawaii tourism model is developed, exploiting Hall, Henry, and Greenslade's (2002) theory-directed sequential reduction methodology. Both demand and supply factors are emphasized in identifying long-run cointegrating relationships. The second essay applies the BVAR methodology to another key sector in regional modeling-construction. This essay represents the first application of priors on linear combinations of parameters-namely, sums of coefficients and dummy initial observation priors - in a BVAR construction forecasting model. I find that including these priors does not necessarily improve forecast accuracy at medium to long horizons, especially when the series are integrated and there is more than one cointegrating relationship. The third essay extends the second essay to deal with the entire regional economy. All regional models must deal with the inavailability of expenditure data at the state and local levels. This problem typically leads researchers to use either a single highly restricted VAR, or BVAR, or a model of pseudo theory driven equations. In contrast, my third essay makes use of BVAR blocks to model proxies for the expenditure categories in a traditional macro structure. Compared with existing regional BVAR models, the current setup is more complete in accounting for both the intra-action of sectors within the region and the inter-action of the region with external drivers.Ph.D
Study of General Hamilton’s plan of landing on the Gallipoli Peninsula, April 25, 1915.
No full textThe author of this paper inquires whether Hamilton’s planning was satisfactory under the conditions imposed and the situation as it was presented to him. Included in the document are two maps which show the Gallipoli campaign plan of landing on April 25, 1915 (one is general and the other is a special map). Three appendix pages reveal strength and composition, deficiencies in technical means, and the plan of supply and evacuation
SHAPE - A UNIFYING CONCEPT IN DOCUMENT LAYOUT
No full textText objects have traditionally been constrained to be rectangular,
a constraint inherited by modern computer document preparation systems.
However, a variety of tasks in document formatting benefit from a more
general notion of shape. This paper describes such a representation,
suitable for graphic composition at both low and high levels of
document layout. Intermediate in generality and complexity between
rectangles and arbitrary polygons, it comprises separate left and right
margin functions composed piecewise of linear segments. Such shapes
can be compared, conbined, modified and generated using simple, economical
algorithms. This notion of shape appears to provide the correct level
of abstraction for elegant solutions to several knotty problems in
existing systems. Software methods making use of shape have been
implemented in JOT [Bonham 1985], an interactive documentation system
under development as part of the University of Calgary JADE project
[Witten et al 1983].We are currently acquiring citations for the work deposited into this collection. We recognize the distribution rights of this item may have been assigned to another entity, other than the author(s) of the work.If you can provide the citation for this work or you think you own the distribution rights to this work please contact the Institutional Repository Administrator at [email protected]
They ask no quarter
No full text"They Ask No Quarter - The Carl Dunn Led Zeppelin Archive is a 288 page large size book following in the footsteps of legendary Texas rock photographer Carl Dunn and his exploits shooting Led Zeppelin from 1969-1975, in Texas, Oklahoma and Illinois. The archive consists of ca. 1200 photos; we have for this project chosen 175 of the best of these, more than half of them never seen before. The book details 16 Led Zeppelin shows ranging from the Texas Pop Festival in 1969 over the rise of Led Zeppelin on their May 1970 tour of the US south, 5 shows from the epic 1973 tour including the double date at the Chicago Stadium in July 1973, and finally at three consecutive sold out shows in Texas in early March 1975. Carl was also fortunate to visit the band at their Dallas Hotel in 1970 and to shoot Robert, JPJ, and John Bonham freely while relaxing; and he joined Jimmy Page and Peter Grant in Austin, where Jimmy played with Bad Company in September 1974. The book will be narrated by Carl Dunn and Led Zeppelin expert and writer Marc Roberty. Music photography archivist Dave Brolan and famed rock photographer Ross Halfin will offer their words on the Carl Dunn Led Zeppelin archive.
Katamari Kart: A serious and hilarious sub/urban game for more serendipitous, playful and friendly public art
No full textThe article presents the sub/urban game-method Katamari Kart, where people roam industrial and suburban areas collecting waste materials and progressively building a large and mobile public sculpture. This game-method departs from established concepts and practice in neighbourhood improvement as it tries to evade capital expenditure and embraces uncertainty and friction in bringing together various stakeholders, does not aim to look stylish or even be useful, decelerates daily life, promotes self-sufficiency in cultural life, and creates long-term wellbeing through play. That is, it is a degrowth approach to neighbourhood improvement. Rumen Rachev positions the Katamari Kart game-method as an expression of the ‘Kiwi way’ and discusses the role it can play in making our future neighbourhoods more serendipitous, playful and friendly, and a ref lection of the diverse people and things that reside there – all without capital expenditure or the support of the authorities. Finally, Alex Bonham, author of the book Play and the City: How to Create Places and Spaces to Help Us Thrive, discusses the Katamari Kart game-method in the context of adult play, our settler history, keeping up appearances, the Be a Tidy Kiwi campaign, play and wellbeing, and conflicting responses to frugality
The Impact of 9/11 and Other Terrible Global Events on Tourism in the U.S. and Hawaii
No full textThis paper reviews recent trends in travel and tourism in the U.S. and Hawaii to ascertain how the terrorist attacks of 9/11 and subsequent terrible global events affected their tourism flows and the manner and pace of their recovery. We note that tourism in the U.S. has not fully recovered from 9/11 and other international shocks; indeed recovery of international travel to the U.S. may be a long way off. By contrast, Hawaii tourism is enjoying robust growth in the aftermath of 9/11 as growth in tourist arrivals from the U.S. mainland has more than offset declines in Japanese and other international visitors. We suggest that Hawaiis current tourism boom is in part explained by the diversion of U.S. travel from foreign travel. The paper demonstrates the usefulness of vector error correction models to generate dynamic visitor forecasts which we use to ascertain whether tourism in Hawaii has fully recovered from 9/11 and other terrible international events. The paper considers policy options for facilitating the recovery of international tourism to the U.S.Tourism, Terrorism, Impact, Recovery
- …
