42 research outputs found
Chinese Saving Dynamics: The Impact of GDP Growth and the Dependent Share
No full textChina’s national saving rate rose rapidly in the 2000s after declining through the late 1990s. These dynamics are not explained by precautionary motives, the institutional distribution of income, or reform related processes in general. Rather, we find a compelling explanation lies with GDP growth fluctuations and movement in the dependent share in population. We estimate a vector autoregressive model for the period 1978-2008, then generate in-sample simulations that successfully replicate the 2000s runup in the saving rate. Our out of sample forecasts show the saving rate dropping in the 2010s as the dependency share falls and GDP growth moderates.
Evidential marking in European languages: toward a unitary comparative account Studia typologica ;, v. 27./ edited by Björn Wiemer and Juana I. Marín-Arrese.
No full textIn English.Includes bibliographical references and indexes.How are evidential functions distinguished by means other than grammatical paradigms, i.e. by function words and other lexical units? And how inventories of such means can be compared across languages (against an account also of grammatical means used to mark information source)? This book presents an attempt at supplying a comparative survey of such inventories by giving detailed "evidential profiles" for a large part of European languages: Continental Germanic, English, French, Basque, Russian, Polish, Lithuanian, Modern Greek, and Ibero-Romance languages, such as Catalan, Galician, Portuguese and Spanish. Each language is treated in a separate chapter, and their profiles are based on a largely unified set of concepts based on function and/or etymological provenance. The profiles are preceded by a chapter which clarifies the theoretical premises and methodological background for the format followed in the profiles. The concluding chapter presents a synthesis of findings from these profiles, including areal biases and the formulation of methodological problems that call for further research.Björn Wiemer and Juana I. Marín-Arrese -- Juana I. Marín-Arrese, Marta Carretero and Aurelija Usonienė -- Tanja Mortelmans -- Tanja Mortelmans and Katerina Stathi -- Patrick Dendale -- Juana I. Marín-Arrese and Marta Carretero -- Andreu Sentí -- Mercedes González Vázquez and Elena Domínguez Romero -- Elena Domínguez Romero, Víctoria Martín de la Rosa and Viviane de Moraes Abrahão -- Björn Wiemer and Alexander Letuchiy -- Björn Wiemer and Anna Socka -- Aurelija Usonienė -- Katerina Stathi -- Karlos Cid Abasolo and Marta Carretero -- Björn Wiemer. Introduction / Evidentiality in English / Evidentiality in Dutch / Evidentiality in German / Evidentiality in French / Evidentiality in Spanish / Evidentiality in Catalan / Evidentiality in Galician / Evidentiality in Portuguese / Evidential marking in Russian / Evidential marking in Polish / Evidentials in Lithuanian / Evidentiality in Standard Modern Greek / Evidentiality in Basque / Conclusions and outlook /1 online resource (xvii, 732 pages)
Towards a Swiss national Earthquake Risk model: Sensitivity and gap analysis
No full textSwitzerland is exposed to earthquakes and has a high vulnerability and high losses endangered. The available seismic risk models are not sufficient and therefore the development has to go towards a new Swiss national seismic risk model. The model developed is an end-to-end calculation from the initial hazard to the final loss. It contains a deterministic and a probabilistic part and is calculated with the fully open software OpenQuake by the GEM foundation. For the deterministic calculation a critical issue is identified in the spatial distribution of the exposure model. Furthermore the sensitivity of the model is tested by changing the various parameter like hazard input model, calculation parameters, vulnerability model or exposure model. It is discovered that the different parameters and models show effects from zero to several 1000s of percent change. The uncertainty level in the vulnerability model is identified as critical value of uncertainty. The input models show uncertainties in the same range. No parameter dominates the uncertainty estimation. The new obtained preliminary national seismic risk model is an improvement to the initially available model and it describes the uncertainty as well.Applied Geophysics and PetrophysicsGeoscience & EngineeringCivil Engineering and Geoscience
MODELING INDUCED SEISMICITY WITH A STOCHASTIC-GEOMECHANICAL SIMULATOR
No full texthe risk of inducing seismic events does nowadays
call for the full development of new forms of
exploitation of the geo-resources. Understanding
the physical mechanisms is pivotal to the
development of numerical tools to forecast
induced seismicity and to elaborate mitigation
strategies. Modeling tools constitute the base of
the so-called Adaptive Traffic Light System, which
could provide a real-time evaluation of the
GeoEnergy system performance in the future. In
this work, we summarize recent results of a
numerical approach coupling a fluid flow
simulator with a geomechanical-stochastic
formulation to simulate injection induced
seismicity. We present the main features of the
developed approach, which includes non-linear
pressure evolution as well as static stress transfer.
The proposed approach is then applied to
evaluate the relevance of induced seismicity
related to a possible gas phase and to the system
conditions. Based on some synthetic modeling, we
finally focus on assessing the efficiency of the
reservoir creation. Furthermore, we assess the
seismic hazard associated with the fluid injection,
estimating the probability of exceeding a certain
magnitude event during and after stimulation.
Both these factors (improved efficiency and lower
seismic hazard) are then combined in a unique
tool to evaluate injection strategies
Telecommunications, and Information Systems
No full textAlthough much effort has been directed towards creating theoretical models of coreference resolution and towards developing algorithms to perform coreference, no one has previously attempted to directly account for human judgements of coreference acceptability. Gordon and Hendrick (1997 and 1998) have collected human data and developed a formal theory of human coreference resolution which they call Discourse Prominence Theory (DPT). This paper describes our computational implementation of DPT and our evaluation of that implementation with respect to the human data
A Support System for managing Early Supplier Involvement in New Product Development
No full textIn many sectors, companies are striving to involve suppliers in early phases of product development. This involvement aims at fulfilling new market and business demands such as reducing development time, reducing time-to-market, improving product quality or facilitating the launch of products in a highly competitive environment. In this context, this paper aims at investigating how early supplier involvement can be applied in new product development phases so as to deliver positive outcomes in terms of reducing time to market, improving quality or reducing costs. Especial mention will be given to how the concept of early supplier involvement can be sketched in a conceptual model in such a way that it can helps to predict the performance of the project by evaluating the critical success factors that foster the collaboration between buyer and supplier. The results confirm the positive relationship between an effective involvement of the supplier led by a relationship of high quality which positively influences the performance. The results also suggest that certain elements of the involvement are more likely to improve the timing and the extent, leading to significant improvements in cost, quality and time-to-market objectives. Future research is needed in order to further validate the conceptual model proposed.Technology, Policy and ManagementEngineering Systems and Service
Partial discharge. XVIII. Errors in the location of partial discharges in high voltage solid dielectric cables
No full textPredictors of hyperkalemia among patients on maintenance hemodialysis transported to the emergency department by ambulance
No full textBackground
Hyperkalemia is common among patients on maintenance hemodialysis (HD) and is associated with mortality. We hypothesized that clinical characteristics available at time of paramedic assessment before emergency department (ED) ambulance transport (ambulance-ED) would associate with severe hyperkalemia (K≥6 mmol/L). Rapid identification of patients who are at risk for hyperkalemia and thereby hyperkalemia-associated complications may allow paramedics to intervene in a timely fashion, including directing emergency transport to dialysis-capable facilities.
Methods
Patients on maintenance HD from a single paramedic provider region, who had at least one ambulance-ED and subsequent ED potassium from 2014 to 2018, were examined using multivariable logistic regression to create risk prediction models inclusive of prehospital vital signs, days from last dialysis, and the presence of prehospital electrocardiogram (ECG) features of hyperkalemia. We used bootstrapping with replacement to validate each model internally, and performance was assessed by discrimination and calibration.
Results
Among 704 ambulance-ED visits, severe hyperkalemia occurred in 75 (11%); 26 patients with ED hyperkalemia did not have a prehospital ECG. Younger age at transport, longer HD vintage, more days from last hemodialysis session (OR=49.84; 95% CI, 7.72 to 321.77 for ≥3 days versus HD the same day [before] ED transport), and prehospital ECG changes (OR=6.64; 95% CI, 2.31 to 19.12) were independently associated with severe ED hyperkalemia. A model incorporating these factors had good discrimination (c-statistic 0.82; 95% CI, 0.76 to 0.89) and, using a cutoff of 25% probability, correctly classified patients 89% of the time.
Conclusions
Characteristics available at the time of ambulance-ED were associated with severe ED hyperkalemia. An awareness of these associations may allow health care providers to define novel care pathways to ensure timely diagnosis and management of hyperkalemia
Augmented reality to support self-directed learning in practical technology teacher training: presentation of the SelTecAR project and investigation of the conditions for success.
No full textAugmented reality (AR) can be a useful tool to support self-directed learning processes. This possibility is being used in the SelTecAR project (Self-directed Learning in Technical Studies through Augmented Reality) by the Technical Education working group at the University of Oldenburg to improve the manual-practical training of technical education students and to consider more strongly that some students with previous experience can link to previously acquired skills, whereas the other students cannot. Therefor a new learning concept is being developed for the technology teacher training workshop module, which enables AR-supported self-directed learning with flexible learning times and assistance. Within the project, an augmented reality environment is created in the workshops where teaching takes place, in which students can use their own smartphones to view instructions as overlays or video tutorials and call up important information on tools or machines. For the purpose of scientific monitoring, support needs are determined in order to be able to set up the AR environment in a targeted manner; in addition, conditions for success in the use of the AR environment are investigated. The results of the self-directed learning needs assessment show that working with machine tools and circuit design are learning content areas that require support for self-directed learning. The investigation of the conditions for success in implementing such an environment happens within the development. Several points became apparent. Among other things, the selection of the right software plays a major role depending on the support needs. In addition, access must be low-threshold (use of the private smartphone, without login, etc.) and the use must be integrated into the instruction phases preceding the self-learning phases
