1,721,042 research outputs found
The effect of economic sanctions on world trade of mineral commodities. A gravity model approach from 2009 to 2020
No full textThis article employs a gravity model to examine the impact of sanctions on the trade of mineral commodities, classified at a detailed level (using the six-digit code of the Harmonized System — HS, a global classification system for traded goods), from 2009 to 2020. The dataset covers flows from 239 exporter countries to 38 OECD members. The primary findings highlight that: (i) a significant trade disruption is evident, characterized by an immediate 90 percent reduction, with a growing impact observed over time; (ii) sanctions-busting appears effective only in the very short term, albeit with weak supporting evidence; (iii) sender countries experience a decline in trade not only with target countries but also with third countries (negative network effect).
An analysis by regions and commodity groups provides different evidence. First, North American sender countries exhibit the ability to replace imports from target countries with alternative suppliers, while EU countries experience a clear trade disruption. Second, when examining different mineral commodities, findings indicate that sanctions lead to a reduction in trade of Ores and Slag (HS Chapter 26) and Mineral Fuels and Oils (HS Chapter 27), but not in Salt and Cement (HS Chapter 25). Regarding sanctions-busting, it is evident for Ores and Slag. However, sender countries importing Salt and Cement seem to be able to shift to other sources, whereas sender countries importing Mineral Fuels and Oils experience a substantial trade disruptio
Minimum global tax: winners and losers in the race for mergers and acquisitions
No full textIn the context of the OECD’s reform of international taxation, the paper quantifies
the impact of the global minimum corporate tax rate on large multinational crossborder
mergers and acquisitions. Within a gravity model specification, it examines
how differences in capital taxation may drive bilateral cross-border mergers and
acquisitions, taking into account both the direct and indirect distortionary effects
of taxes. The empirical exercise exploits a large purpose-built dataset comprising
13,562 investor-firm M&As data points from 2001 to 2020, in (at the 516 4-digit
level) industries times 109 “source” countries, matched with 559 (also at the 4-digit)
industries times 161 “target” countries. In line with a simple theoretical model
underpinning the mechanisms of transmission, the empirical results suggest that
M&As flows are higher when the source and target countries have closer tax rates.
Next, whenever the target country’s corporate tax rate is lower than 15%, the gravity
model estimates the impact of the 15% global minimum tax rate on cross-border
investments by firms whose revenue exceeds the €750 millions threshold. The simulation
shows that the overall effect of the global minimum corporate tax on M&As
flows would be negative, but small in magnitude. Less developed economies would
be comparatively the most affected area. As a percentage of expected flows, developing
countries would experience the largest decrease. In absolute terms, the biggest
decrease in outflow investments would be among OECD countries, while the biggest
drop in inflow investments would be among high-income non-OECD countries
The tide that does not raise all boats: an assessment of EU preferential trade policies
No full textThe aim of this article is to assess the impact of the European Union’s trade preferences on bilateral trade flows. Using highly disaggregated 8-digit import data in a theoretically grounded gravity model framework, we define an explicit measure of preferential tariff margins and use that to estimate sector-specific elasticities. From the methodological point of view, we show that the assessment of these policies’ impacts is very sensitive to the definition of the preferential tariff margin. An important by-product of our procedures is that they can be used to obtain estimates of trade elasticities of substitution, some of the most important parameters in the international trade empirical literature. Results show that actual preferential schemes or possible future policies, such as the transatlantic trade agreement between the USA and the EU (TTIP), have a significant impact on trade volumes, with large differences across sectors
The twin innovation-renewable energy production of Italian provinces: New evidence from spatial panel analysis
No full textWhile previous research has explored the determinants of renewable energy generation, this analysis is the first
to jointly investigate the specific impact of technological innovation and digital infrastructure across multiple
renewable sources within a spatial framework. Focusing on Italian provinces between 2016 and 2021, the study
explores the role of innovation and ultra-wideband (UWB) infrastructure in shaping renewable energy generation.
Using a granular dataset covering 106 provinces, we apply spatial econometrics to estimate the impact of innovation-related variables on four types of renewable energy: photovoltaic, hydropower, wind, and bioenergy.
This study also captures spillover effects between neighboring provinces to assess interdependencies. Findings
indicate a significant spillover effect across provinces, with innovation variables positively influencing energy
generation when significant. However, UWB infrastructure, when statistically significant, exhibits a sharp negative
impact. These results suggest that while digital technologies may optimize energy consumption, they could
inadvertently reduce production levels—possibly due to inadequate storage devices
Reciprocal Trade Agreements in Gravity Models: A Meta-Analysis
No full textThe gravity model is a workhorse tool applicable in a wide range of empirical fields. It is regularly used to estimate the impact of reciprocal trade agreements (RTAs) on trade flows between partners. The studies report very different estimates since there is a significant difference in datasets, sample sizes, and independent variables. This paper combines, explains, and summarizes a large number of results using a meta-analysis approach. We provide pooled estimates, obtained from fixed and random effects models of the RTAs' effect size on bilateral trade: the hypothesis that there is no effect of RTAs on trade is robustly rejected at standard significance levels. The information collected on each estimate allows us to test the sensitivity of the results to alternative specifications and differences in the control variables considered, as well as the impact of the publication selection process. Copyright � 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
The Trade Impact of EU Tariff Margins: An Empirical Assessment
No full textThis article provides an assessment of how the EU trade policies affect EU imports. The main contribution is that we compute a theoretically consistent measure of the EU tariff margin and estimate the elasticities of substitution at the sectoral level, using a structural gravity model that includes domestic trade flows. Our analysis is related to the most recent gravity literature and the identification strategy is based on the existence of a sufficient variation of the tariffs applied by the EU to different markets of origin. We use cross-section data (more than 5000 tariff lines and 188 exporters, including the EU28 Member States, in the year 2017), to obtain structural gravity estimates of trade substitution elasticities. Since tariffs greatly differ by product, an in-depth analysis should take place at the tariff line. Moreover, we use the information provided by the Eurostat Comext database on the tariff regime of imports, so we distinguish the Most Favored Nation (MFN) from the preferential trade flows. The estimated elasticities can be used to calculate the counterfactual change in total EU imports that would follow either from the removal of trade preferences or from the removal of trade policies
The trade impact of European Union agricultural preferences
No full textWe assess the impact on agricultural trade of European Union (EU) trade policies, using a gravity model based on disaggregated trade flows from 161 developing countries (DCs) to 15 EU member countries. We use a sample selection framework to account for potential selection bias of positive trade flows and provide an explicit measure for relative preference margins. From a policy perspective, our results debunk some of the most widespread criticisms of preferential policies: EU preferences matter and have a positive impact on DCs agricultural exports at both the extensive and intensive margins, although with significant differences across sectors.preferential trade policy, agricultural trade, gravity model, European trade policy,
The Dark Matter of Bilateral Preferential Margins: An Assessment of the Effect of US Tariffs
Full text linkThis article aimed to quantify the impact of United States (US) trade policies and assess how changes in tariff margins will affect imports to the US. To do that, we estimated trade elasticities by sector using a gravity structural model, computed US preference margins on a bilateral basis, and investigated alternative scenarios for properly measuring the effects of US trade agreements on international trade. Results showed that the removal of all preferences might lead to a negative net effect of $41,202 million (2% of predicted trade), indicating that the actual US structure of tariffs generates a trade diversion to less efficient exporters and destroys trade flows, even if the impact differs by sector
Minimum global tax: winners and losers in the race for mergers and acquisitions
No full textIn the context of the OECD’s reform of international taxation, the paper quantifies the impact of the global minimum corporate tax rate on large multinational crossborder mergers and acquisitions. Within a gravity model specification, it examines how differences in capital taxation may drive bilateral cross-border mergers and acquisitions, taking into account both the direct and indirect distortionary effects of taxes. The empirical exercise exploits a large purpose-built dataset comprising 13,562 investor-firm M&As data points from 2001 to 2020, in (at the 516 4-digit level) industries times 109 “source” countries, matched with 559 (also at the 4-digit) industries times 161 “target” countries. In line with a simple theoretical model underpinning the mechanisms of transmission, the empirical results suggest that M&As flows are higher when the source and target countries have closer tax rates. Next, whenever the target country’s corporate tax rate is lower than 15%, the gravity model estimates the impact of the 15% global minimum tax rate on cross-border
investments by firms whose revenue exceeds the €750 millions threshold. The simulation shows that the overall effect of the global minimum corporate tax on M&As flows would be negative, but small in magnitude. Less developed economies would be comparatively the most affected area. As a percentage of expected flows, developing countries would experience the largest decrease. In absolute terms, the biggest decrease in outflow investments would be among OECD countries, while the biggest drop in inflow investments would be among high-income non-OECD countries
Environmental migration? An overview of the literature
Full text linkThe literature on the relationship between environmental factors such as
climatic changes and natural hazards and human mobility (both internal and
international) is characterized by heterogeneous results: some contributions
highlight the role of climate changes as a driver of migratory flows, while
others underline how this impact is mediated by geographical, economic and the
features of the environmental shock. This paper attempts to map this
literature, focusing on economics and empirical essays.
The paper improves on the existing literature: (a) providing systematic
research of the literature through main bibliographic databases, followed by a
review and bibliometric analysis of all resulting papers; (b) building a
citation-based network of contributions, that hollows to identify four separate
clusters of paper; (c) applying meta-analysis methods on the sample of 96
papers released between 2003 and 2020, published in an academic journal,
working papers series or unpublished studies, providing 3,904 point estimates
of the effect of slow-onset events and 2,065 point estimates of the effect of
fast-onset events.
Overall, the meta-analytic average effect estimates a small impact of slow-
and rapid-onset variables on migration, however positive and significant. When
the clustering of the literature is accounted for, however, a significant
heterogeneity emerges among the four clusters of papers, giving rise to new
evidence on the formation of club-like convergence of literature outcomes
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