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    Power Quality Indices and Objectives

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    CIGRE' Report n. 261 - October 200

    Probabilistic sizing of battery energy storage when time-of-use pricing is applied

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    Demand response (DR) is a useful tool for end users, since it allows noticeable reductions in the electricity bill. However, some customers have stringent constraints in terms of hourly active power, which makes DR attractive only when performed with the contemporaneous use of battery energy storage systems (BESSs). When this option is used, it is desirable to optimally size the BESSs, since their high investment costs could make their use impracticable for DR purposes. The uncertainties related to many of the inputs required by the BESS-sizing procedure make it necessary to use a probabilistic framework for sizing. In this paper, a probabilistic approach is proposed for the optimal sizing of BESSs when time-of-use (ToU) pricing is applied. The sizing procedure takes into account the uncertainties that unavoidably affect the evaluation of the total cost incurred by the customer such as load demand, energy prices, and economic factors

    A Probabilistic Competitive Ensemble Method for Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting

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    Photovoltaic systems are expected to play a key role in the planning and operation of future distribution systems due to the benefits associated with their use. Unfortunately, a great problem is involved in photovoltaic power utilization, i.e., the unpredictability of the solar source. Thus, many forecasting methods have been developed in order to provide tools with adequate consistency, quality, and value. The methods can provide either deterministic or probabilistic forecasts; the latter seem to be the most appropriate for taking into account the unavoidable uncertainties of the solar source. In this paper, a new probabilistic method based on a competitive ensemble of different base predictors is proposed for the short-term forecasting of photovoltaic power. Three probabilistic methods were selected and trained as base predictors in order to obtain an ensemble of the predictive distribution with optimal characteristics of sharpness and reliability. Numerical applications based on actual data were performed to test the effectiveness of the proposed method with respect to single predictors and to a benchmark method
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