1,720,976 research outputs found
How markets slowly digest changes in supply and demand
No full textIn this article we revisit the classic problem of tatonnement in price
formation from a microstructure point of view, reviewing a recent body
of theoretical and empirical work explaining how fluctuations in
supply and demand are slowly incorporated into prices. Because
revealed market liquidity is extremely low, large orders to buy or
sell can only be traded incrementally, over periods of time as long as
months. As a result order flow is a highly persistent long-memory
process. Maintaining compatibility with market efficiency has profound
consequences on price formation, on the dynamics of liquidity, and on
the nature of impact. We review a body of theory that makes detailed
quantitative predictions about the volume and time dependence of
market impact, the bid-ask spread, order book dynamics, and
volatility. Comparisons to data yield some encouraging successes.
This framework suggests a novel interpretation of financial
information, in which agents are at best only weakly informed and all
have a similar and extremely noisy impact on prices. Most of the
processed information appears to come from supply and demand itself,
rather than from external news. The ideas reviewed here are relevant
to market microstructure regulation, agent-based models, cost-optimal
execution strategies, and understanding market ecologies
Monetary policy and dark corners in a stylized agent-based model
No full textWe extend in a minimal way the stylized macroeconomic Agent-Based model introduced in our previous paper (Gualdi et al. in J Econ Dyn Control 50:29-61, 2015a), with the aim of investigating the role and efficacy of monetary policy of a 'Central Bank' that sets the interest rate such as to steer the economy towards a prescribed inflation and employment rate. Our major finding is that provided its policy is not too aggressive (in a sense detailed in the paper) the Central Bank is successful in achieving its goals. However, the existence of different equilibrium states of the economy, separated by phase boundaries (or "dark corners"), can cause the monetary policy itself to trigger instabilities and be counter-productive. In other words, the Central Bank must navigate in a narrow window: too little is not enough, too much leads to instabilities and wildly oscillating economies. This conclusion strongly contrasts with the prediction of DSGE models
Tipping points in macroeconomic agent-based models
No full textThe aim of this work is to explore the possible types of phenomena that simple macroeconomic Agent-Based models (ABMs) can reproduce. We propose a methodology, inspired by statistical physics, that characterizes a model through its "phase diagram" in the space of parameters. Our first motivation is to understand the large macro-economic fluctuations observed in the "Mark I" ABM devised by Delli Gatti and collaborators. In this regard, our major finding is the generic existence of a phase transition between a "good economy" where unemployment is low, and a "bad economy" where unemployment is high. We then introduce a simpler framework that allows us to show that this transition is robust against many modifications of the model, and is generically induced by an asymmetry between the rate of hiring and the rate of firing of the firms. The unemployment level remains small until a tipping point, beyond which the economy suddenly collapses. If the parameters are such that the system is close to this transition, any small fluctuation is amplified as the system jumps between the two equilibria. We have explored several natural extensions of the model. One is to introduce a bankruptcy threshold, limiting the firms maximum level of debt-to-sales ratio. This leads to a rich phase diagram with, in particular, a region where acute endogenous crises occur, during which the unemployment rate shoots up before the economy can recover. We also introduce simple wage policies. This leads to inflation (in the "good" phase) or deflation (in the "bad" phase), but leaves the overall phase diagram of the model essentially unchanged. We have also explored the effect of simple monetary policies that attempt to contain rising unemployment and defang crises. We end the paper with general comments on the usefulness of ABMs to model macroeconomic phenomena, in particular in view of the time needed to reach a steady state that raises the issue of ergodicity in these models. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved
Endogenous Crisis Waves: Stochastic Model with Synchronized Collective Behavior
No full textWe propose a simple framework to understand commonly observed crisis waves in macroeconomic agent-based models, which is also relevant to a variety of other physical or biological situations where synchronization occurs. We compute exactly the phase diagram of the model and the location of the synchronization transition in parameter space. Many modifications and extensions can be studied, confirming that the synchronization transition is extremely robust against various sources of noise or imperfections
Self-planting: digging holes in rough landscapes
No full textMotivated by a potential application in economics, we investigate a simple dynamical scheme to produce planted solutions in optimization problems with continuous variables. We consider the perceptron model as a prototypical model. Starting from random input patterns and perceptron weights, we find a locally optimal assignment of weights by gradient descent; we then remove misclassified patterns (if any), and replace them by new, randomly extracted patterns. This 'remove and replace' procedure is iterated until perfect classification is achieved. We call this procedure 'self-planting' because the 'planted' state is not pre-assigned but results from a co-evolution of weights and patterns. We find an algorithmic phase transition separating a region in which self-planting is efficiently achieved from a region in which it takes exponential time in the system size. We conjecture that this transition might exist in a broad class of similar problems
V-, U-, L- or W-shaped economic recovery after Covid-19: Insights from an Agent Based Model
No full textWe discuss the impact of a Covid-19-like shock on a simple model economy, described by the previously developed Mark-0 Agent-Based Model. We consider a mixed supply and demand shock, and show that depending on the shock parameters (amplitude and duration), our model economy can display V-shaped, U-shaped or W-shaped recoveries, and even an L-shaped output curve with permanent output loss. This is due to the economy getting trapped in a self-sustained "bad" state. We then discuss two policies that attempt to moderate the impact of the shock: giving easy credit to firms, and the so-called helicopter money, i.e. injecting new money into the households savings. We find that both policies are effective if strong enough. We highlight the potential danger of terminating these policies too early, although inflation is substantially increased by lax access to credit. Finally, we consider the impact of a second lockdown. While we only discuss a limited number of scenarios, our model is flexible and versatile enough to accommodate a wide variety of situations, thus serving as a useful exploratory tool for a qualitative, scenario-based understanding of post-Covid recovery. The corresponding code is available on-line
Good speciation and endogenous business cycles in a constraint satisfaction macroeconomic model
No full textWe introduce a prototype agent-based model of the macroeconomy, with budgetary constraints at its core. The model is related to a class of constraint satisfaction problems (CSPs), which has been thoroughly investigated in computer science. The CSP paradigm allows us to propose an alternative price-setting mechanism: given agents' preferences and budgets, what set of prices satisfies the maximum number of agents? Such an approach permits the coupling of production and output within the economy to the allowed level of debt in a simplified framework. Within our model, we identify three different regimes upon varying the amount of debt that each agent can accumulate before defaulting. In presence of a very loose constraint on debt, endogenous crises leading to waves of synchronized bankruptcies are present. In the opposite regime of very tight debt constraining, the bankruptcy rate is extremely high and the economy remains structure-less. In an intermediate regime, the economy is stable with very low bankruptcy rate and no aggregate-level crises. This third regime displays a rich phenomenology: the system spontaneously and dynamically self-organizes in a set of cheap and expensive goods (i.e. some kind of 'speciation'), with switches triggered by random fluctuations and feedback loops. Our analysis confirms the central role that debt levels play in the stability of the economy. More generally, our model shows that constraints at the individual scale can generate highly complex patterns at the aggregate level
Optimal inflation target: insights from an agent-based model
No full textWhich level of inflation should Central Banks be targeting? The authors investigate this issue in the context of a simplified Agent Based Model of the economy. Depending on the value of the parameters that describe the behaviour of agents (in particular inflation anticipations), they find a rich variety of behaviour at the macro-level. Without any active monetary policy, our ABM economy can be in a high inflation/high output state, or in a low inflation/low output state. Hyper-inflation, deflation and "business cycles" between coexisting states are also found. The authors then introduce a Central Bank with a Taylor rule-based inflation target, and study the resulting aggregate variables. The main result is that too-low inflation targets are in general detrimental to a CB-monitored economy. One symptom is a persistent under-realization of inflation, perhaps similar to the current macroeconomic situation. Higher inflation targets are found to improve both unemployment and negative interest rate episodes. The results are compared with the predictions of the standard DSGE model
How does the market react to your order flow?
No full textWe present an empirical study of the intertwined behaviour of members in a financial market. Exploiting a database where the broker that initiates an order book event can be identified, we decompose the correlation and response functions into contributions coming from different market participants and study how their behaviour is interconnected. We find evidence for the following. (1) Brokers are very heterogeneous in liquidity provision—some appear to be primarily liquidity providers while others are primarily liquidity takers. (2) The behaviour of brokers is strongly conditioned on the actions of other brokers. In contrast, brokers are only weakly influenced by the impact of their own previous orders. (3) The total impact of market orders is the result of a subtle compensation between the same broker pushing the price in one direction and the liquidity provision of other brokers pushing it in the opposite direction. These results enforce the picture of market dynamics being the result of the competition between heterogeneous participants, interacting to form a complex market ecology
How markets slowly digest changes in supply and demand
No full textIn this article we revisit the classic problem of tatonnement in price formation from a microstructure point of view, reviewing a recent body of theoretical and empirical work explaining how fluctuations in supply and demand are slowly incorporated into prices. Because revealed market liquidity is extremely low, large orders to buy or sell can only be traded incrementally, over periods of time as long as months. As a result order flow is a highly persistent long-memory process. Maintaining compatibility with market efficiency has profound consequences on price formation, on the dynamics of liquidity, and on the nature of impact. We review a body of theory that makes detailed quantitative predictions about the volume and time dependence of market impact, the bid-ask spread, order book dynamics, and volatility. Comparisons to data yield some encouraging successes. This framework suggests a novel interpretation of financial information, in which agents are at best only weakly informed and all have a similar and extremely noisy impact on prices. Most of the processed information appears to come from supply and demand itself, rather than from external news. The ideas reviewed here are relevant to market microstructure regulation, agent-based models, cost-optimal execution strategies, and understanding market ecologies
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