1,720,994 research outputs found
General climatic controls and topoclimatic variations in Central and High Asia
No full textBasic features of current spatial and seasonal climate variations in Central and High Asia are presented. Large-scale circulation modes were inferred from NCAR/CDAS General Circulation Model (GCM) data and interpreted with particular emphasis on the Asian Monsoon circulation. Using spatial high-resolution estimates of radiation, temperature and precipitation covering Central and High Asia in a regular grid network with a grid-cell spacing of 1 km 2, topoclimatic variations are investigated and discussed with respect to their major barometric and topographic controls. In general, weather patterns of Central and High Asia are determined by tropical monsoon as well as extratropical circulation modes. Associated synoptic conditions and processes, in particular the alternation of tropical and polar air masses, lead to distinct large-scale variations valid for all climatic parameters in all seasons. The regional analysis and discussion of climatic gradients and environmental lapse rates stress the significant role of Asia's marked orography and its influence on advective processes, flow currents and topoclimatic settings. Preliminary estimations of the annual water balance, however, are still afflicted with major uncertainties owing to methodical limits in the spatial estimation of precipitation rates and widely lacking evapotranspiration records, particularly in the Tibetan Plateau and adjacent high mountain systems. Given the importance of the mountainous water resources for the affected economies, further regional investigations on the water cycle and its components are vital future tasks for climate research
Environmental change modelling for Central and High Asia: Pleistocene, present and future scenarios
No full textA regional modelling concept was developed for late Quaternary climate reconstructions and future climate impact assessments. Based on estimates of different climate parameters covering the entire Central and High Asia in a grid-cell spacing of 1 km(2), climatic determinants of the recent spatial distribution of climate-sensitive environments ( glacial and periglacial environments, forest) were explored. Simple climatic threshold functions were established, de. ning critical climate values for modelling the spatial extension of environments considered. Using palaeogeomorphological indicators as a basis, late Quaternary climatic conditions were modelled in a Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) scenario consistent with palaeogeomorphological and palaeoclimatological data. The results enabled a validation of LGM palaeoclimate simulations performed by the ECHAM GCM. To assess the magnitude of possible future climatic impacts on the spatial distribution of glaciers, permafrost and potential forest stands, two GCM-based IPCC-SRES climate change scenarios (IPCC special report on emission scenarios) for the time period 2070 - 2099 were considered. Assuming future climates to be perturbed for long enough to affect the environments, a distinct loss of glaciated areas and permafrost must be expected
Seasonality of the hydrological cycle in major South and Southeast Asian river basins as simulated by PCMDI/CMIP3 experiments
Full text linkIn this study, we investigate how PCMDI/CMIP3 general circulation models (GCMs) represent the seasonal properties of the hydrological cycle in four major South and Southeast Asian river basins (Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra and Mekong). First, we examine the skill of the GCMs by analysing their performance in simulating the 20th century climate (1961-2000 period) using historical forcing (20c3m experiment), and then we analyse the projected changes for the corresponding 21st and 22nd century climates under the SRESA1B scenario. The CMIP3 GCMs show a varying degree of skill in simulating the basic characteristics of the monsoonal precipitation regimes of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Mekong basins, while the representation of the hydrological cycle over the Indus Basin is poor in most cases, with a few GCMs not capturing the monsoonal signal at all. While the model outputs feature a remarkable spread for the monsoonal precipitation, a satisfactory representation of the western mid-latitude precipitation regime is instead observed. Similarly, most of the models exhibit a satisfactory agreement for the basin-integrated runoff in winter and spring, while their spread is large for the runoff during the monsoon season. For the future climate scenarios, most models foresee a decrease in the winter P - E over all four basins, while agreement is found on the decrease of the spring P - E over the Indus and Ganges basins only. Such decreases in P - E are mainly due to the decrease in precipitation associated with the western mid-latitude disturbances. Consequently, for the Indus and Ganges basins, the runoff drops during the spring season while it rises during the winter season. Such changes indicate a shift from rather glacial and nival to more pluvial runoff regimes, particularly for the Indus Basin. Furthermore, the rise in the projected runoff, along with the increase in precipitation during summer and autumn, indicates an intensification of the summer monsoon regime for all study basins. ©Author(s) 2014
Seasonal cycle of precipitation over major river basins in South and Southeast Asia: A review of the CMIP5 climate models data for present climate and future climate projections
No full textWe review the skill of thirty coupled climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in terms of reproducing properties of the seasonal cycle of precipitation over the major river basins of South and Southeast Asia (Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra and Mekong) for the historical period (1961-2000). We also present how these models represent the impact of climate change by the end of century (2061-2100) under the extreme scenario RCP8.5. First, we assess the models' ability to reproduce the observed timings of the monsoon onset and the rate of rapid fractional accumulation (RFA) slope - a measure of seasonality within the active monsoon period. Secondly, we apply a threshold-independent seasonality index (SI) - a multiplicative measure of precipitation (P) and extent of its concentration relative to uniform distribution (relative entropy - RE). We apply SI distinctly over the monsoonal precipitation regime (MPR), westerly precipitation regime (WPR) and annual precipitation. For the present climate, neither any single model nor the multi-model mean performs best in all chosen metrics. Models show overall a modest skill in suggesting right timings of the monsoon onset while the RFA slope is generally underestimated. One third of the models fail to capture the monsoon signal over the Indus basin. Mostly, the estimates for SI during WPR are higher than observed for all basins. When looking at MPR, the models typically simulate an SI higher (lower) than observed for the Ganges and Brahmaputra (Indus and Mekong) basins, following the pattern of overestimation (underestimation) of precipitation. Most of the models are biased negative (positive) for RE estimates over the Brahmaputra and Mekong (Indus and Ganges) basins, implying the extent of precipitation concentration for MPR and number of dry days within WPR lower (higher) than observed for these basins. Such skill of the CMIP5 models in representing the present-day monsoonal hydroclimatology poses some caveats on their ability to represent correctly the climate change signal. Nevertheless, considering the majority-model agreement as a measure of robustness for the qualitative scale projected future changes, we find a slightly delayed onset, and a general increase in the RFA slope and in the extent of precipitation concentration (RE) for MPR. Overall, a modest inter-model agreement suggests an increase in the seasonality of MPR and a less intermittent WPR for all basins and for most of the study domain. The SI-based indicator of change in the monsoonal domain suggests its extension westward over northwest India and Pakistan and northward over China. These findings have serious implications for the food and water security of the region in the future
The WEELS model: methods, results and limitations
No full textWithin the European Union (EU)-funded Project 'Wind Erosion on European Light Soils' (WEELS), a model was designed and implemented with the aim of predicting the long-term spatial distribution of wind erosion risks in terms of erosion hours and wind-induced soil loss. In order to ensure wide applicability, the model structure consists of a modular combination of different approaches and algorithms, running on available or easily collected topographic and climatological data input. Whereas the 'WIND', 'WIND EROSIVITY' and 'SOIL MOISTURE' modules combine factors that contribute to the temporal variations of climatic erosivity, the 'SOIL ERODIBILITY', SURFACE ROUGHNESS' and 'LAND USE' modules predict the temporal soil and vegetation cover variables that control soil erodibility. Preliminary simulations over a 29-year period for the Barnham site (UK) (1970-1998) and a 13-year period for the Gronheim site (Germany) (1981-1993) generally resulted in a higher erosion risk for the English test site, where the total mean soil loss was estimated at 1.56 t ha(-1) year(-1) and mean maximum soil loss at about 15.5 t ha(-1) year(-1). The highest rates exceeded 3 t ha(-1) in March, September and November. On the northern German test site, the total mean soil loss was 0.43 t ha(-1) year(-1). The highest erosion rates were predicted in April when they can exceed 2.5 t ha(-1). The total mean maximum soil loss at this site of about 10.0 t ha(-1) year(-1) corresponds to a loss of about 0.65 mm. Predictions based on a land use scenario for the German site revealed that the erosion risk could be reduced significantly by changing land use strategies. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Full text linkThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Variations on the Author
Full text link“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis
Full text linkWe provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis
Dispelling the Myths Behind First-author Citation Counts
Full text linkWe conducted a full-scale evaluative citation analysis study of scholars in the XML research field to explore just how different from each other author rankings resulting from different citation counting methods actually are, and to demonstrate the capability of emerging data and tools on the Web in supporting more realistic citation counting methods. Our results contest some common arguments for the continued
use of first-author citation counts in the evaluation of scholars, such as high correlations between author rankings by first-author citation counts and other citation
counting methods, and high costs of using more realistic citation counting methods that are not well-supported by the ISI databases. It is argued that increasingly available digital full text research papers make it possible for citation analysis studies to go beyond what the ISI databases have directly supported and to employ more
sophisticated methods
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