117,492 research outputs found
Catchment travel time distributions and water flow in soils
No full textMany details about the flow of water in soils in a hillslope are unknowable given current technologies. One way of learning about the bulk effects of water velocity distributions on hillslopes is through the use of tracers. However, this paper will demonstrate that the interpretation of tracer information needs to become more sophisticated. The paper reviews, and complements with mathematical arguments and specific examples, theory and practice of the distribution(s) of the times water particles injected through rainfall spend traveling through a catchment up to a control section (i.e., “catchment” travel times). The relevance of the work is perceived to lie in the importance of the characterization of travel time distributions as fundamental descriptors of catchment water storage, flow pathway heterogeneity, sources of water in a catchment, and the chemistry of water flows through the control section. The paper aims to correct some common misconceptions used in analyses of travel time distributions. In particular, it stresses the conceptual and practical differences between the travel time distribution conditional on a given injection time (needed for rainfall‐runoff transformations) and that conditional on a given sampling time at the outlet (as provided by isotopic dating techniques or tracer measurements), jointly with the differences of both with the residence time distributions of water particles in storage within the catchment at any time. These differences are defined precisely here, either through the results of different models or theoretically by using an extension of a classic theorem of dynamic controls. Specifically, we address different model results to highlight the features of travel times seen from different assumptions, in this case, exact solutions to a lumped model and numerical solutions of the 3‐D flow and transport equations in variably saturated, physically heterogeneous catchment domains. Our results stress the individual characters of the relevant distributions and their general nonstationarity yielding their legitimate interchange only in very particular conditions rarely achieved in the field. We also briefly discuss the impact of oversimple assumptions commonly used in analyses of tracer data
Rezension: Elisa T. Bertuzzo (2009). Fragmented Dhaka. Analysing Everyday Life with Henri Lefebvre's Theory of Production of Space
No full textMüller A-L. Rezension: Elisa T. Bertuzzo (2009). Fragmented Dhaka. Analysing Everyday Life with Henri Lefebvre's Theory of Production of Space. Forum: Qualitative Sozialforschung / Forum: Qualitative Social Research. 2010;11(3): 19
On the probability of extinction of the Haiti cholera epidemic
No full textMore than three years after its appearance in Haiti, cholera has already caused more than 8,500 deaths and 695,000 infections and it is feared to become endemic. However, no clear evidence of a stable environmental reservoir of pathogenic Vibrio cholerae, the infective agent of the disease, has emerged so far, suggesting the possibility that the transmission cycle of the disease is being maintained by bacteria freshly shed by infected individuals. Should this be the case, cholera could in principle be eradicated from Haiti. Here, we develop a framework for the estimation of the probability of extinction of the epidemic based on current information on epidemiological dynamics and health-care practice. Cholera spreading is modeled by an individual-based spatially-explicit stochastic model that accounts for the dynamics of susceptible, infected and recovered individuals hosted in different local communities connected through hydrologic and human mobility networks. Our results indicate that the probability that the epidemic goes extinct before the end of 2016 is of the order of 1 %. This low probability of extinction highlights the need for more targeted and effective interventions to possibly stop cholera in Haiti. © 2014 The Author(s)
Conditions for transient epidemics of waterborne disease in spatially explicit systems
No full textWaterborne diseases are a diverse family of infections transmitted through ingestion of-or contact with-water infested with pathogens. Outbreaks of waterborne infections often show well-defined spatial signatures that are typically linked to local eco-epidemiological conditions, water-mediated pathogen transport and human mobility. In this work, we apply a spatially explicit network model describing the transmission cycle of waterborne pathogens to determine invasion conditions in metacommunities endowed with a realistic spatial structure. Specifically, we aim to define conditions under which pathogens can temporarily colonize a set of human communities, thus triggering a transient epidemic outbreak. To that end, we apply generalized reactivity analysis, a recently developed methodological framework for the study of transient dynamics in ecological systems subject to external perturbations. The study of pathogen invasion is complemented by the detection of the spatial signatures associated with the perturbations to a disease-free system that are expected to be amplified the most over different time scales. Understanding the drivers of waterborne disease dynamics over time scales that are relevant to epidemic and/or endemic transmission is a crucial, cross-disciplinary challenge, as large portions of the developing world still struggle to cope with the burden of these infections
The problem of the initial conditions in flavoured leptogenesis and the tauon N2-dominated scenario
No full textWe discuss the conditions to realise a scenario of ‘strong thermal leptogenesis,’ where the final asymmetry is fully independent of the initial conditions, taking into account both heavy and light neutrino flavour effects. In particular, the contribution to the final asymmetry from an initial pre-existing asymmetry has to be negligible.We show that in the case of a hierarchical right-handed (RH) neutrino mass spectrum, the only possible way is an N2-dominated leptogenesis scenario with a lightest RH neutrino mass M1 <<109 GeV and with a next-to-lightest RH neutrino mass 1012 GeV >> M2 >> 109 GeV. This scenario necessarily requires the presence of a heaviest third RH neutrino specie. Moreover, we show that the final asymmetry has to be dominantly produced in the tauon flavour while the electron and the muon asymmetries have to be efficiently washed-out by the lightest RH neutrino inverse processes. Intriguingly, such seemingly special conditions for successful strong thermal leptogenesis are naturally fulfilled within SO(10)-inspired models.Besides the tauon N2-dominated scenario, successful strong thermal leptogenesis is also achieved in scenarios with quasi-degenerate RH neutrino masses. We also comment on the supersymmetric case. We also derive an expression for the final asymmetry produced from leptogenesis taking fully into account heavy neutrino flavour effects in the specific case M1 >> 1012 GeV (heavy flavoured scenario), a result that can be extended to any other mass pattern
ALPs, the on-shell way
No full textWe study how the coupling between axion-like particles (ALPs) and matter can be obtained at the level of on-shell scattering amplitudes. We identify three conditions that allow us to compute amplitudes that correspond to shift-symmetric Lagrangians, at the level of operators with dimension 5 or higher, and we discuss how they relate and extend the Adler’s zero condition. These conditions are necessary to reduce the number of coefficients consistent with the little-group scaling to the one expected from the Lagrangian approach. We also show how our formalism easily explains that the dimension-5 interaction involving one ALP and two massless spin-1 bosons receive corrections from higher order operators only when the ALP has a non-vanishing mass. As a direct application of our results, we perform a phenomenological study of the inelastic scattering l+l− → φh (with l± two charged leptons, φ the ALP and h the Higgs boson) for which, as a result of the structure of the 3-point and 4-point amplitudes, dimension-7 operators can dominate over the dimension-5 ones well before the energy reaches the cutoff of the theory
Permafrost dynamics and the risk of anthrax transmission: a modelling study
No full textA recent outbreak of anthrax disease, severely affecting reindeer herds in Siberia, has been reportedly associated to the presence of infected carcasses or spores released from the active layer over permafrost, which is thawing and thickening at increasing rates, thus underlying the re-emerging nature of this pathogen in the Arctic region because of warming temperatures. Anthrax is a global zoonotic and epizootic disease, with a high case-fatality ratio in infected animals. Its transmission is mediated by environmental contamination through highly resistant spores which can persist in the soil for several decades. Here we develop and analyze a new epidemiological model for anthrax transmission that is specifically tailored to the Arctic environmental conditions. The model describes transmission dynamics including also herding practices (e.g. seasonal grazing) and the role of the active layer over permafrost acting as a long-term storage of spores that could be viable for disease transmission during thawing periods. Model dynamics are investigated through linear stability analysis, Floquet theory for periodically forced systems, and a series of simulations with realistic forcings. Results show how the temporal variability of grazing and active layer thawing may influence the dynamics of anthrax disease and, specifically, favor sustained pathogen transmission. Particularly warm years, favoring deep active layers, are shown to be associated with an increase risk of anthrax outbreaks, and may also foster infections in the following years. Our results enable preliminary insights into measures (e.g. changes in herding practice) that may be adopted to decrease the risk of infection and lay the basis to possibly establish optimal procedures for preventing transmission; furthermore, they elicit the need of further investigations and observation campaigns focused on anthrax dynamics in the Arctic environment
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