1,721,022 research outputs found
Appendix 2: Limits to climate space modelling
No full textIn: Walmsley, C.A., Smithers, R.J., Berry, P.M., Harley, M., Stevenson, M.J., Catchpole, R., Eds., MONARCH – modelling natural resource responses to climate change – A synthesis for biodiversity conservatio
SPECIES: A Spatial Evaluation of Climate Impact on the Envelope of Species
No full textA model, A Spatial Evaluation of Climate Impact on the Envelope of Species (SPECIES), is presented which has been developed to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the bioclimatic envelope of plant species in Great Britain. SPECIES couples an artificial neural network with a climate–hydrological process model. The hybrid model has been successfully trained to estimate current species distributions using climate and soils data at the European scale before application at a finer resolution national scale. Using this multi-scale approach ensures encapsulation of the full extent of future climate scenarios within Great Britain without extrapolating outside of the model's training dataset. Application of the model to 32 plant species produced a mean Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.841 and a mean Kappa statistic of 0.772 between observed and simulated distributions. Simulations of four climate change scenarios revealed that changes to suitable climate space in Great Britain is highly species dependent and that distribution changes may be multidirectional and temporally non-linear. Analysis of the SPECIES results suggests that the neural network methodology can provide a feasible alternative to more classical spatial statistical techniques
Modelling potential impacts of climate change on the bioclimatic envelope of species in Britain and Ireland. (In Climate Change and Conservation Special Issue)
No full textAim: Climate change has the potential to have significant impacts on the distribution of species and on the composition of habitats. This paper identifies the potential changes in the future distribution of species under the UKCIP98 climate change scenarios, in order that such changes can be taken into account in conservation management. Location: The model was applied to Britain and Ireland. Methods: A model based on an artificial neural network was used to predict the changing bioclimate envelopes of species in Britain and Ireland. Fifty-four species representing 15 habitats were modelled. Results: The modelled species could be placed into three categories: those losing suitable climate space, those gaining it, and those showing little or no change. When the species were associated with habitats it was found that Arctic-Alpine/montane heath communities were the most sensitive to climate change, followed by pine woodland and beech woodland in southern England. In lowland heath, wet heath, cereal field margins, coastal grazing marsh, drought-prone acid grassland and calcareous grassland, the species either showed little change or an increase in suitable climate space. The other eight habitats showed a mixed response. Conclusions: The species show a variety of responses to climate change and thus their current habitat associations may alter. The uncertain future of some species and habitats is highlighted. Conservation policy and practice will need to be revised in the face of climate change
Regional assessment of climate change impacts on coastal and fluvial ecosystems and the scope for adaptation
No full textEcosystem changes in floodplains could be a major issue during the twenty-first century as designated habitat areas are affected by climate change and floodplain management options. As part of the RegIS project, a Regional Impact Simulator has been developed to investigate these potential changes. This paper presents the methodologies and results of biodiversity metamodels used within the Regional Impact Simulator for two regions of the UK: East Anglia and North West England. Potential impacts and adaptations to future climate and socio-economic scenarios are analysed for three habitat types in floodplains (saltmarsh, coastal grazing marsh and fluvial grazing marsh) and selected species. An important finding is that management choices, which can be linked to socio-economic futures have a greater potential impact on habitat viability than climate change. The choices society makes will therefore be key to protection and conservation of biodiversity. The analyses also show that coastal grazing marsh is the most vulnerable habitat to sea-level rise, although there is a scope for substituting losses with fluvial grazing marsh. These results indicate that these methods provide a useful approach for assessing potential biodiversity changes at the regional scale, including the effect of different policies
A regional, multi-sectoral and integrated assessment of the impacts of climate and socio-economic change in the UK: Part I. Methodology
Full text linkPolicy makers and stakeholders are increasingly demanding impact assessments
which produce policy-relevant guidance on the local impacts of global climate
change. The 'Regional Climate Change Impact and Response Studies in East Anglia
and North West England' (RegIS) study developed a methodology for stakeholder-
led, regional climate change impact assessment that explicitly evaluated local
and regional (sub-national) scale impacts and adaptation options, and cross-
sectoral interactions between four major sectors driving landscape change
(agriculture, biodiversity, coasts and floodplains and water resources). The
'Drivers-Pressure-State-Impact-Response' (DPSIR) approach provided a structure
for linking the modelling and scenario techniques. A 5x5 km grid was chosen for
numerical modelling input (climate and socio-economic scenarios) and output, as
a compromise between the climate scenario resolution (10x10 km) and the detailed
spatial resolution output desired by stakeholders. Fundamental methodological
issues have been raised by RegIS which reflect the difficulty of multi-sectoral
modelling studies at local scales. In particular, the role of scenarios, error
propagation in linked models, model validity, transparency and transportability
as well as the use of integrated assessment to evaluate adaptation options to
climate change are examined. Integrated assessments will provide new insights
which will compliment those derived by more detailed sectoral assessments
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Full text linkThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Cross-sectoral interactions of adaptation and mitigation measures
No full textAdaptation and mitigation are complementary strategies for addressing the impacts of climate change, yet are often considered separately. This paper examines the literature for evidence of the interactions of adaptation and mitigation measures across the agriculture, biodiversity, coasts, forests, urban and water sectors, focusing on Europe. It found that often adaptation and mitigation synergies and conflicts were not explicitly mentioned within a sector, let alone between sectors. Most measures, however, were found to have an effect on another sector, resulting in neutral, positive (synergies) or negative (conflicts) interactions within and between sectors. Many positive cross-sectoral interactions involved biodiversity or water and thus these could represent good starting places for the implementation of integrated, cross-sectoral strategies. Previous studies suggest that adaptation and mitigation are undertaken on different time and geographical scales; this study found many local scale measures which could facilitate integration between both adaptation and mitigation. It is important that cross-sectoral interaction of adaptation and mitigation measures are explicitly recognised if they are to be mainstreamed into policy, so that positive outcomes are enhanced and unintended consequences avoided
Variations on the Author
Full text link“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
- …
