1,722,333 research outputs found

    Why did Czech Banks Switch From Loans in 1995?

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    The Czech banking system is seen by many observers to be the most successful of all former socialist economies’. But have Czech banks successfully provided worthy enterprises with sufficient credit from the funds made available to them? Using data from the Czech National Bank and data on individual Czech banks, I find evidence that in 1995 banks are provided with more deposits, but do not transform them into enterprise loans. I investigate the possible causes of this great portfolio switch and find that the central bank instituted a monetary tightening during a regime of fixed exchange rates and mobile capital. The central bank sterilized the continuing capital inflows. The resulting higher interbank interest rates and competition from foreign funds made the loan interest margin too narrow for Czech banks to profitably lend. The tight money strategy likely contributed to the bank failures in the following year and may have lead to greater concentration in the Czech banking system.Banking, Capital Flows, Capital Mobility, Central Banking, Economy in Transition, Fixed Exchange Rates, Monetary Policy

    Gradualism vs Cold Turkey

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    The paper analyzes the incentive for the ECB to establish reputation by pursuing a restrictive policy right at the start of its operation. The bank is modelled as risk averse with respect to deviations of both inflation and output from her target. The public, being imperfectly informed about the bank’s preferences uses observed inflation as (imperfect) signal for the unknown preferences. Under linear learning rules - which are commonly used in the literature - a gradual build up of reputation is the optimal response. The paper shows that such a linear learning rule is not consistent with efficient signaling. It is shown that in a game with efficient signaling, a cold turkey approach - allowing for deflation - is optimal for a strong bank - accepting high current output losses at the beginning in order to demonstrate its toughness.Die Arbeit untersucht die Anreize der Europäischen Zentralbank, in der Startphase durch restriktive Politik Reputation aufzubauen. Die Öffentlichkeit kennt die Präferenzen der Zentralbank nicht; sie verwendet die beobachtete Inflationsrate als (imperfektes) Signal. Wird eine lineare Lernregel unterstellt - der Standardfall in der Literatur - erweist es sich als optimal, hohe Inflationserwartungen zumindest teilweise zu akkommodieren und so Reputation nur schrittweise aufzubauen. Die Arbeit zeigt aber, daß eine solche lineare Lernregel mit effizientem Signalverhalten nicht konsistent ist. Bei effizientem Signalisieren kann es für eine harte Zentralbank optimal sein, in der Startphase durch eine sehr restriktive, deflationäre Politik ihre Präferenzen zu offenbaren
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