504 research outputs found
Data for: Estimating parasite-condition relationships and potential health effects for fallow deer (Dama dama) and red deer (Cervus elaphus) in Denmark
No full textData are part of the DEER-HEALTH project funded by AAGE V JENSEN NATURFOND (grant number: 2021-0122). Data contains serum chemistry and parasite data sampled in 21 red deer and 20 fallow deer in Denmark. Data are the basis for a scientific publication entitled: Estimating parasite-condition relationships and potential health effects for fallow deer (Dama dama) and red deer (Cervus elaphus) in Denmark written by Floris M. van Beest*, Heidi H. Petersen, Anne K.H. Krogh, Monica Lønborg, Niels M. Schmidt, Sophia V. Hansson. * Corresponding author: [email protected]
Selecting the Number of States in Hidden Markov Models: Pragmatic Solutions Illustrated Using Animal Movement
No full textPohle J, Langrock R, van Beest FM, Schmidt NM. Selecting the Number of States in Hidden Markov Models: Pragmatic Solutions Illustrated Using Animal Movement. Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics. 2017;22(3):270–293
Flood Risks and Safety in the Netherlands (Floris): Floris study - Full report
No full textThe purpose of the Floris Project The government considers it important that the public has a better understanding of the probability of their area being hit by a flood. The government also wants to have a clear view of the relatively weaker areas in flood protection. Other experts have, moreover, indicated that the protection against flooding may no longer be properly in proportion to the consequences of flooding. The Flood Risks and Safety in the Netherlands (Floris) Project was therefore initiated in 2001 at the request of the State Secretary of Transport, Public Works and Water Management. The purpose of the Floris project is to gain an understanding of the consequences and the probability of flooding in the Netherlands. The project was conducted by the Road and Hydraulic Engineering Institute of the Netherlands Public Works Department (Rijkswaterstaat), in close cooperation with the Water Boards and Provinces. The results were released in the summer of 2005. Essence of the method The Flood Risks and Safety in the Netherlands Project has resulted in the further development and application of a new method which can be used to calculate the consequences of flooding. Detailed calculations have been made of the number of victims and the economic losses resulting from various flooding scenarios for three dike rings. The consequences have been determined more globally for the remaining dike rings. A new method has also been applied for determining the probability of flooding. The essence of the method is that various 'failure mechanisms', as they are known, can initiate a flood: not only extremely high water levels, but also instability in a dike or failure to close a hydraulic structure on time. Any failure mechanism carries a risk of flooding. The probability of all failure mechanisms together determines the risk of flooding in a dike ring. This method has been used to determine the flood risks of 16 of the 53 dike rings. The 16 dike rings were selected to give a representative view of safety in the Netherlands related to flooding. The calculations also show where the relatively weak locations in the water defences lie. A great deal of data was needed to be able to apply the new methods, including information about the subsoil under the dikes and hydraulic structures. In some cases, this data is surrounded by many uncertainties. An essential element in the probability calculations is that the order of uncertainty is expressly included in the calculation. The greater the uncertainty, the greater the probability. Further research can, in some cases, reduce the uncertainty. In which event the probability of flooding will also turn out to be smaller. This research will take place in the next phase of the Floris Project. Only then can the probability of flooding be established on a sound basis. Consequences of flooding From the study it appeared that in the event of flooding there could be anything between a few dozen to several thousand victims. Most are likely to occur if the flooding is unexpected and evacuation is therefore no longer possible. It appears from the most likely flooding scenarios that floods will occur unexpectedly. The maximum economic damage in the event of flooding of a dike ring ranges from \u80 160 million in Terschelling to almost \u80 300 billion in the province of South Holland. These amounts have been roughly calculated and show the damage which would occur if the entire dike ring was to fill up with water. For three dike rings the average damage has also been calculated in detail. During this process it was analysed in various flood scenarios which part of the dike ring would be inundated and how much damage would be caused as a result. From these calculations it appears that in the most likely flood scenarios 'only' part of the dike ring would be flooded. Only in the rivers region would the dike ring almost always be completely flooded. The average damage in the province of South Holland amounted to approx. \u80 6 billion. The global method can therefore lead to huge overestimation of the damage, particularly for the larger dike rings which are divided into compartments by obstacles. Probability of flooding The study shows that the probability of flooding in the 16 dike rings varies from 1/2500 per year in South Holland to more than 1/100 per year in a number of dike rings in the rivers region. These figures give only an indication of the actual probability of flooding and cannot yet be seen as absolute values. The method is not yet robust enough for that. The calculations do, however, provide the opportunity to analyse which failure mechanisms contribute most to the flooding probability and where the weakest locations are in a dike ring. In the 1950s the Delta Committee established that extremely high water levels constitute the greatest threat of flooding. This insight provided the basis for the present safety standards for water defences. From the results of the Floris project it appears that this assumption is now no longer universally applicable. The probability of flooding due to high water levels is sometimes small compared with the risk due to other failure mechanisms. In most dike rings the failure mechanism of 'piping' constitutes the greatest threat. Here the water forms channels under the dike, causing the dike to collapse. The large probability is probably partly due to the uncertainties surrounding the subsoil under the foundations of the water defences. Further investigation at the sites in question can show whether there actually is a relatively weak spot. But it is clear that piping is a real threat in the sandy and clay subsoil of the Netherlands. With each high water the Water Boards carefully check the water defences for signs of this phenomenon. They are also prepared, if signs of piping are found, to take emergency measures, such as covering the dike with textile and sandbags. The effects of this human intervention are otherwise not included in the calculation of the probability of flooding. The failure mechanism of 'not closing hydraulic structures' also led to a high probability of flooding in a number of dike rings. In almost all cases this was because the closing procedures were not properly defined. This risk can be quickly and easily reduced by having the procedures documented and through regular exercises. Further to the Floris project, several Water Boards have now taken these measures. Flood risks The risk of flooding in a dike ring is the flood damage multiplied by the probability of flooding. Based on a rough calculation of the maximum flood damage, the risk in the 16 dike rings ranges from \u80 0.1 to 180 million per year. In the three dike rings where the potential damage has been calculated in detail, the risk of flooding ranges from \u80 2 to 37 million per year. The flooding risk can be seen as the amount that should be set aside per year to be able, in the long term, to compensate for the damage caused by a flood. In dike rings along the rivers the risks of flooding are relatively great. This is partly because the flooding probabilities along the rivers are greater. In addition to this, the consequences are large because if there are floods, almost the entire dike ring will be inundated with water. Other dike rings in most cases will 'only' partially flood. Value of the figures and how they can be used The Floris project is just one step in a longer development pathway. For all 16 dike rings the flooding risks have now been identified at the first development level. The calculated value of the flooding probability gives an indication of the actual flooding probability, but cannot yet be considered as an absolute value. It is possible to identify the relatively weaker locations in each dike ring and their causes. For a number of these locations it will first be necessary to investigate whether the probability of failure is actually great, or if it is due to uncertainty in the data. The Floris project has reached the second development level for three dike rings. These are the dike rings where the consequences have been calculated at a detailed level. The results at this level of development are robust enough to be able to compare the flooding probabilities and the flood risks with other similar types of dike rings. As soon as the flood risks of all the dike rings in the rivers region are available at this level, this will create an overview of the consequences of a flood and the weakest links throughout the rivers region. Priorities can also be set for similar types of dike rings, along the coast or in tidal river areas. Development level three will be reached in the future when the flood risks for all dike rings have been soundly determined, with an acceptably small margin of error. The flood risks of dike rings throughout the Netherlands can then be compared with one another. It is necessary to reach this level to be able to make a cost/benefit analysis of investments to be made in providing flood protection and to be able to evaluate whether the present standards offer sufficient protection. The total risk of flooding in the Netherlands can then also be compared in absolute terms with other collective national risks. Conclusions and Recommendations All those involved share the view that the method used offers added value. The calculations provide the most realistic picture of the probability of flooding based on current understanding. The calculated probability of flooding, however, is not yet robust enough for these figures to be considered as absolute values. Further research and development of the method could help to make the method more robust in the future. For most applications the national picture of the flood risks needs to be completed. Therefore it is recommended that the method also be applied to the remaining 37 dike rings. To obtain a proper estimate of the consequences, the detailed method needs to be used for all dike rings. More attention also needs to be focused on providing cost/benefit analyses for dealing with relatively weak locations. The study should continue, preferably coordinated from one central point, to be able to compare all the results. The mechanism of piping plays a major role in the present flooding probabilities and deserves further investigation. The study should focus on a method of calculating the probability of piping, reducing the uncertainty in the data and ways of reducing the probability of piping. In so doing it is also important, of course, not to lose sight of other failure mechanisms.Floris Stud
Prefazione
No full textThe research work aims to reconstruct the composition genesis of the text in order to focus on Deledda’s approaching the so called “Sardinian novel” after the sentimental manner of her first novels and tales.
The analysis of the plot and of the narrative texture highlights hence the disarmonic but fervid effort of the author in representing the island in its diverse social classes, putting together her enthousiasm as a neophyt toward Popular traditions with a romantic corteous and bourgeois of the “distant love”. The magic and adventure of the treasure theme binds the two aspects, which seem to stem directly from Balzac’s adventurous journey to Sardinia
Density-dependent, central-place foraging in a grazing herbivore: competition and tradeoffs in time allocation near water
No full textOptimal foraging theory addresses one of the core challenges of ecology: predicting the distribution and abundance of species. Tests of hypotheses of optimal foraging, however, often focus on a single conceptual model rather than drawing upon the collective body of theory, precluding generalization. Here we demonstrate links between two established theoretical frameworks predicting animal movements and resource use: central-place foraging and density-dependent habitat selection. Our goal is to better understand how the nature of critical, centrally placed resources like water (or minerals, breathing holes, breeding sites, etc.) might govern selection for food (energy) resources obtained elsewhere - a common situation for animals living in natural conditions. We empirically test our predictions using movement data from a large herbivore distributed along a gradient of water availability (feral horses, Sable Island, Canada, 2008–2013). Horses occupying western Sable Island obtain freshwater at ponds while in the east horses must drink at self-excavated wells (holes). We studied the implications of differential access to water (time needed for a horse to obtain water) on selection for vegetation associations. Consistent with predictions of density-dependent habitat selection, horses were reduced to using poorer-quality habitat (heathland) more than expected close to water (where densities were relatively high), but were free to select for higher-quality grasslands farther from water. Importantly, central-place foraging was clearly influenced by the type of water-source used (ponds vs. holes, the latter with greater time constraints on access). Horses with more freedom to travel (those using ponds) selected for grasslands at greater distances and continued to select grasslands at higher densities, whereas horses using water holes showed very strong density-dependence in how habitat could be selected. Knowledge of more than one theoretical framework may be required to explain observed variation in foraging behavior of animals where multiple constraints simultaneously influence resource selection
Using hierarchical hidden Markov models for joint inference at multiple temporal scales
No full textAdam T, Leos-Barajas V, Langrock R, van Beest F. Using hierarchical hidden Markov models for joint inference at multiple temporal scales. In: Grzegorczyk M, Ceoldo G, eds. Proceedings of the 32nd International Workshop on Statistical Modelling, Vol. 2, Groningen, Netherlands 3-7 July, 2017. Groningen: Univ. of Groningen; 2017
Invertebrate communities in adjacent Douglas fir and native beech forests in New Zealand
No full textNon-native trees profoundly alter the structure and resilience of native forest ecosystems through direct or indirect effects on ecosystem processes, e.g. by altering invertebrate communities, but such effects are poorly understood in New Zealand. We sampled adjacent stands of the non-native tree Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) and native beech (Nothofagaceae) forests and tested whether the overall invertebrate communities varied across forest types. We then assessed whether natural enemies, both trophic-generalist predators and more trophic-specialist parasitoids, differed across forest types. We found a trend for lower overall invertebrate family diversity in Douglas fir plantations compared to native beech forests. Parasitoid abundance was lower in Douglas fir forests compared to native beech forests, although we could not tease apart whether these effects were due to differences in forest age, forest type, or a combination of these factors. Our findings suggest that there are subtle shifts in invertebrate community composition from native forests to non-native forests, and that trophic specialisation might play a key role in determining which natural enemies can inhabit non-native forests in New Zealand. Nevertheless, our small sample size calls for further exploration of these patterns.Fil: Evans, Alison M.. Department Of Conservation; Nueva ZelandaFil: Peralta, Guadalupe. University of Canterbury; Nueva Zelanda. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Investigaciones de las Zonas Áridas. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Investigaciones de las Zonas Áridas. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Investigaciones de las Zonas Áridas; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Instituto Multidisciplinario de Biología Vegetal. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas Físicas y Naturales. Instituto Multidisciplinario de Biología Vegetal; ArgentinaFil: van Beest, Floris M.. Department Of Conservation; Nueva ZelandaFil: Klijzing, Krista. Department Of Conservation; Nueva ZelandaFil: Peltzer, Duane. Crown Research Institutes. Landcare Research; Nueva Zeland
Organizzazioni di tendenza religiosa tra Direttiva europea, diritti nazionali e Corte di giustizia UE
No full textSOMMARIO: 1. Premessa - 2. La Direttiva 2000/78 CE e i casi Egenberger e IR arrivati a Lussemburgo - 3. Autonomia delle chiese e tutela giurisdizionale dei diritti all’interno delle organizzazioni religiosamente orientate. I contenuti criptici delle pronunce di Lussemburgo - 4. Il requisito ideologico nelle organizzazioni di tendenza. Le integrazioni della Corte UE e le riletture in corso da parte confessionale - 5. L’art. 17 TFUE e l’attesa di chiarimenti.Religious-Ethos Employers between European Directive, national laws and Court of Justice EUABSTRACT: This article examines two recent rulings of the Court of Justice of the European Union (cases Egenberger and IR). These are the first rulings on art. 4, par. 2, Directive 2000/78/EC on “occupational activities within churches and other public or private organisations the ethos of which is based on religion or belief“. On the one hand the author focuses on the passages concerning religious autonomy and jurisdictional protection of rights; on the other hand she highlights the links between the jurisprudence of the two European courts (CJEU and ECHR) and tries to reconcile the statements of the Court of Justice and those of the German constitutional Court on the limits to the autonomy of churches. However, the article highlights how the Court of Justice has not adequately addressed neither the art. 10 of the European Charter of Fundamental Rights EU, nor the art. 17 of the TFEU. As regards the ideological requirement set by art. 4, par. 2 of the European Directive, the study focuses on the additions made by the Court of Justice and recalls the reinterpretations of the ideological requirement recently adopted by the Catholic and Evangelical Churches in Germany
Correction to “The Impact of Credit Reforms on Bank Loans and Firm Leverage Around the World”
No full textGonenc, H., F. Jansen, M. H. Tinoco, and M. Vulanovic. 2024. “The Impact of Credit Reforms on Bank Loans and Firm Leverage Around the World.” European Financial Management 30: 2449–2502. https://doi.org/10.1111/eufm.12477.The institution in the author affiliation for the second author, Floris Jansen, has been misspelt. It should be ‘Houlihan Lokey’.We apologize for this error
Robust energy production optimization of a wind farm using wake steering by calibrating the FLORIS model on SCADA data
No full textWind farms experience significant efficiency losses due to the aerodynamic interaction between turbines. A possible control technique to reduce these losses to a minimum is yaw-based wake steering. This thesis investigates the feasibility of this technique by calibrating a surrogate model called the FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady-state (FLORIS) model on a data set from the Lillgrund wind farm and using it to estimate the potential energy gain. The data set available is processed methodically to remove outliers and erroneous data points, resulting in a reliable and useful data set. It is used to obtain free stream wind conditions per time step and relate those to power measurements. The data set is consequently used to calibrate the tuning parameters of the FLORIS model. The calibration is done using a newly proposed method that determines the tuning parameters per combination of wind speed and turbine spacing. A difference with commonly applied calibration methods is that power measurements are used instead of predicted powers or flow field data from high-fidelity models. The performance of the calibrated model is tested through multiple uncertainty analyses. It is found that the model has a significant bias but low uncertainty by comparing the predicted wake losses with measured wake losses. This bias can potentially be reduced if atmospheric stability is taken into account. With the bias and uncertainty quantified, the FLORIS model is used to optimize the annual energy production of the Lillgrund wind farm by finding the ideal yaw angles for specific inflow conditions. A significant energy gain can be achieved when the optimal yaw angles are determined deterministically. However, the energy gain decreases drastically when uncertainty in input conditions is considered, showing that these yaw angles are not robust in terms of performance under uncertainty. More robust yaw angles can be obtained when the input uncertainty is taken into account during the yaw optimization. The energy gain achievable with these more robust yaw angles is approximately 3.4%. Therefore, it can be concluded that achieving an energy gain using yaw-based wake steering is feasible for the Lillgrund wind farm.European Wind Energy Masters (EWEM
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