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Engineering Economics e Financial Modeling: sistema di ingegnerizzazione contabile-finanziaria per lo studio di progetti industriali
No full textIl progetto “Engineering Economics e Financial Modeling: sistema di ingegnerizzazione contabile-finanziaria per lo studio di progetti industriali” è volto all’esplorazione delle complesse relazioni tra le grandezze economiche e finanziarie che caratterizzano i progetti industriali e a studiare la creazione di modelli matematici che hanno lo scopo, da un lato, di organizzare i dati e le conoscenze e, dall’altro, di indagare ulteriormente attraverso simulazioni e sperimentazioni.
Gli strumenti utilizzati in questo percorso sono i) la modellazione finanziaria e la sua implementazione in fogli di calcolo elettronici, ii) l’analisi di sensibilità, condotta principalmente con la metodologia dei “Finite Change Sensitivity Indices (FCSI)” (Borgonovo 2010), iii) il confronto di scenari, ottenuto grazie alla progettazione e implementazione di algoritmi che alimentano i modelli matematici, iv) la Split-Screen Matrix (Magni 2020), utilizzata per automatizzare il motore di calcolo dei modelli, e v) la programmazione lineare, mutuata dalle discipline della ricerca operativa.
Grazie a questi strumenti, l’attività di ricerca ha consentito di raggiungere vari risultati nel campo dell’ingegneria economica, della finanza e della contabilità, tra cui i) lo sviluppo di nuovi modelli di valutazione, ii) l’individuazione di nuovi criteri per le decisioni di investimento, iii) l’esplicitazione di come le stime operative possano influire sulle decisioni finanziarie e iv) la scomposizione a posteriori degli effetti delle decisioni, anche nei diversi periodi di vita di un progetto.
I principali campi applicativi esplorati sono la creazione di valore in impianti fotovoltaici (risultati esposti nei convegni “37th EU PVSEC – European PV Solar Energy Conference, September 7-11, 2020” e “MIC2020 – 20th Management International Conference, November 12-15, 2020” e in un articolo pubblicato da “International Journal of Production Economics”), la scomposizione del valore aggiunto negli investimenti finanziari (risultati discussi in un articolo sottoposto a “European Journal of Operational Research”, in corso di revisione), l’impiego della Split-Screen Matrix nella modellazione finanziaria (con una metodologia, volta a definire un sistema algoritmico applicabile nei fogli di calcolo, che si sta introducendo nelle aziende del Gruppo GRAF) e l’ottimizzazione economica in un progetto di sostituzione dei contatori dell’acqua (i cui primi risultati sono stati esposti nel convegno “EURO2021 – 31st European Conference on Operational Research, July 11-14, 2021”).
Questa tesi di dottorato è strutturata come raccolta di articoli scientifici co-autorati durante il corso di dottorato.The project “Engineering Economics and Financial Modeling: accounting-and-finance engineering system for the study of industrial projects” is aimed at exploring the intricate relationships between the economic and financial figures that characterize industrial projects and at studying the creation of mathematical models. The abstract models are meant, on one hand, to organize data and knowledge and, on the other hand, to further investigate through simulations and experiments.
The tools used in this path are i) financial modeling and its implementation in spreadsheets, ii) sensitivity analysis, mainly with the “Finite Change Sensitivity Indices (FCSI)” methodology (Borgonovo 2010), iii) comparison of scenarios, with design and implementation of algorithms that feed mathematical models, iv) Split-Screen Matrix (Magni 2020), used to automate the model calculation engine, and v) linear programming, derived from the disciplines of operations research.
Thanks to these tools, the research activity has made it possible to achieve several results in the fields of Engineering Economics, Finance and Accounting, including i) the development of new evaluation models, ii) the identification of new criteria for investment decisions, iii) the clarification of how operational estimates can affect financial decisions and iv) the ex-post decomposition of the decisions' effects, even in the different life periods of a project.
The main application fields explored are the creation of value in photovoltaic systems (results exposed discussed in the conferences “37th EU PVSEC – European PV Solar Energy Conference, September 7-11, 2020” and “MIC2020 – 20th Management International Conference, November 12-15, 2020” and in an article published by the “International Journal of Production Economics”), the decomposition of added value in financial investments (results discussed in an article submitted to “European Journal of Operational Research”, under review), the use of the Split-Screen Matrix in financial modeling (with a methodology, aimed at defining an algorithmic system applicable in spreadsheets, which is being introduced in the companies of the GRAF Group) and economic optimization in a project to replace water meters (first results exposed at the “EURO2021 – 31st European Conference on Operational Research, July 11-14, 2021”).
This doctoral thesis is structured as a collection of academic papers co-authored during the doctoral course
Impact of financing and payout policy on the economic profitability of solar photovoltaic plants
No full textThis paper introduces an innovative comprehensive evaluation model for appraising an investment in a solar photovoltaic plant which encompasses both operational and financial management. We illustrate the intricate network of logical relations among technical (estimated) variables and financial (decision) variables and show that establishing transparent links between the former and the latter enhances the accuracy and soundness of the model. The results indicate that understanding the conceptual and formal relations of operating variables and financial decisions is necessary for correctly measuring shareholder value creation and making rational decisions, even for those projects (such as solar energy projects) where the operating, technical component is of paramount importance. We show how a firm's decision of replacing conventional energy with solar energy may be affected by managerial decisions regarding the firm's payout/retention policy and its financing policy to support the project. The model discloses insights on how to fine-tune the financing and distribution decisions in order to maximize the value creation for shareholders. We apply the model to a real-life photovoltaic project to be located in the province of Modena, in Northeast Italy, and quantify the effect of financial decisions on the project's net present value, showing that the financing and distribution policies may amplify or shrink the impact of changes in other inputs and may even revert an otherwise unprofitable project into a value-creating one. Finally, we allow operational variables as well as financial variables to change in order to measure their importance via the application of the Clean Finite Change Sensitivity Indices (Magni et al., 2020)
The Split-Screen Approach for Project Appraisal (Part II: Spreadsheet Modeling)
Full text linkThis paper employs the newly conceived accounting-and-finance engineering system (AFES) described in a previous paper (Magni 2023, “The Split-Screen Approach for Project Appraisal (Part I: The Theory)”), addressed to the analysis of capital asset investments. In this second part, we show how to implement this theoretical framework onto a spreadsheet software. We guide the analyst step by step, cell by cell, to the creation of the Split-Screen Matrices describing the project film. Because the AFES is based on two arithmetic relations (law of motion and law of conservation), we can use a minimal approach to modeling, with a frugal use of the most common spreadsheet functions (essentially INDEX and MATCH) and no use of the traditional financial functions, yet fulfilling the requisite of clearness, transparency, consistency, and ease of use. Starting from the informal description of the project, we build the model by breaking it down to 7 modules. The spreadsheet model is available online (see link provided in the paper)
The Attribution Matrix and the joint use of Finite Change Sensitivity Index and Residual Income for value-based performance measurement
No full textSmart-Meter Installation Scheduling in the Context of Water Distribution
Full text linkIn this work, we propose a Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) formulation to model a Smart-Meter Installation Scheduling Problem (SMISP) in the context of water distribution. The model has been used to solve a real case study from a multi-utility company operating in the Italian market. Specifically, in compliance with the European and the Italian regulations on metering, a distribution company is obligated to periodically control meters and substitute them in case they have reached their lifespan. In the examined case study, the multi-utility company has opted for a massive substitution plan in order to install innovative “walk-by smart-meters” in place of traditional mechanical meters.
The MILP formulation aims at integrating both the operational and the financial perspective of the SMISP. In particular, the objective function has been carefully defined in order to maximize the Net Present Value (NPV) of the massive substitution plan, including the operational savings produced by using the walk-by smart-meters, the additional incomes originating from the gradual charge of substitution costs on customers’ invoices as considered by the Italian Authority, the depreciation of walk-by smart-meters, the investment costs, and the impact of income taxes on the objective function. The final goal of the proposed formulation is to define a scheduling for the massive substitution plan that satisfies a number of operational constraints and produces the maximum NPV
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Full text linkThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Variations on the Author
Full text link“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
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