133,084 research outputs found
Voided Ballot in the 1996 Presidential Election: A County-Level Analysis
No full textThis county-level study examines factors associated with the rate of voided presidential ballots in the 1996 elections. Evidence indicates that voided ballots are significantly more prevalent in counties with higher percentages of African Americans and Hispanics. The relationship between voided ballots and African Americans disappears, however, in counties using voting equipment that can be programmed to eliminate overvoting. The rate of voided ballots is lower in larger counties, and in counties with a higher percentage of high school graduates. The rate of voided ballots declines as the number of presidential candidates on the ballot increases, but only up to a point, and then rises with further increases. Lever machines generate the lowest rates of voided ballots among types of voting equipment, with punch card systems generating the highest rates.voting, turnout
Financing Direct Democracy: Revisiting the Research on Campaign Spending and Citizen Initiatives
No full textThe conventional view in the direct democracy literature is that spending against a measure is more effective than spending in favor of a measure, but the empirical results underlying this conclusion have been questioned by recent research. We argue that the conventional finding is driven by the endogenous nature of campaign spending: initiative proponents spend more when their ballot measure is likely to fail. We address this endogeneity by using an instrumental variables approach to analyze a comprehensive dataset of ballot propositions in California from 1976 to 2004. We find that both support and opposition spending on citizen initiatives have strong, statistically significant, and countervailing effects. We confirm this finding by looking at time series data from early polling on a subset of these measures. Both analyses show that spending in favor of citizen initiatives substantially increases their chances of passage, just as opposition spending decreases this likelihood.
Order Effects of Ballot Position without Information-Induced Confirmatory Bias
No full textCandidate list positions have been shown to influence decision making when voters have limited candidate information (e.g. Miller and Krosnick, 1998; Brockington, 2003). Here, a primacy advantage is observed due to a greater number of positive arguments generated for early list candidates (Krosnick, 1991). The present study examined list position effects when an absence of information precludes such a confirmatory bias heuristic. We report the first large scale low-information experimental election where candidate position is fully counterbalanced. Seven hundred and twenty participants voted in a mock election where the position of 6 fictitious and meaningless parties was counterbalanced across the electorate. Analysis by position revealed that significantly fewer votes were allocated to the terminal parties (Experiment 1). In addition, Experiment 1 reported preliminary evidence of an alphabetical bias (consistent with Bagley, 1966). However, this positional bias was not present in a methodological replication using six genuine UK political parties (Experiment 2). This suggests that in situations of pure guessing, the heuristic shifts from the primacy benefiting confirmatory bias to an alternative heuristic that prejudices the first and last parties. These findings suggest that whilst the UK general electoral process may be largely immune to positional prejudice, English local elections (in which there can be multiple candidates from the same party) and multiple preference ranking systems (Scottish Local Government and London Mayoral Elections) could be susceptible to both positional and alphabetical biases
On Finite-Time Ruin Probabilities for Classical Risk Models
No full textThis paper is concerned with the problem of ruin in the classical compound binomial and compound Poisson risk models. Our primary purpose is to extend to those models an exact formula derived by Picard and Lefèvre (1997) for the probability of (non-)ruin within finite time. First, a standard method based on the ballot theorem and an argument of Seal-type provides an initial (known) formula for that probability. Then, a concept of pseudo-distributions for the cumulated claim amounts, combined with some simple implications of the ballot theorem, leads to the desired formula. Two expressions for the (non-)ruin probability over an infinite horizon are also deduced as corollaries. Finally, an illustration within the framework of Solvency II is briefly presented.ruin probability; finite and infinite horizon; compound binomial model; compound Poisson model; ballot theorem; pseudo-distributions; Solvency II; Value-at-Risk.
Who benefits from training and R&D: The firm or the workers? A study on panels of French and Swedish firms
No full textThe present paper offers a novel study of the effects of intangible assets on wages and productivity. Training, R&D, and physical capital are all taken into account, and their joint effects examined. We use panels of firms in order to control for unobserved fixed effects and the potential endogeneity of training and R&D, and have been able to obtain data for two different countries, France and Sweden, in order to explore the effects of institutional or national specificity. The estimation of productivity and wage equations allows us to show how the benefits of investment in physical capital, R&D and training are shared between the firm and the workers. Although the workers obtain significant benefits, the study shows that the firm obtains the largest return on the investments it makes. This is true not only for physical capital and R&D, but also for training. It suggests that firms can rationally invest in training and that the issue of under-investment in training should be re-examined.Training, R&D, productivity, wages
Référentiel de performances économiques, environnementales et sociales de pratiques culturales économes en intrants
No full textCe jeu de données constitue une actualisation du travail réalisé dans le cadre de l'expertise Ecophyto R&D publiée en 2010. Il se base sur l'analyse des données de l'enquête "Pratiques culturales grandes cultures et prairies" conduite par le Ministère en charge de l'Agriculture et sur l'expertise d'une cinquantaine de conseillers agricoles impliqués dans le réseau DEPHY Ferme. Pour 26 grandes cultures, 10 zones couvrant l'ensemble de la France métropolitaine et 5 stratégies culturales couvrant un gradient de dépendance aux intrants de synthèse, des itinéraires techniques types sont décrits. Ces itinéraires techniques sont caractérisées par 30 indicateurs de performances économiques, environnementales et sociales. Ce référentiel peut servir de base à des études prospectives et politiques publiques visant à accompagner les transitions vers une agriculture économe en intrants de synthèse
Moderating Political Extremism: Single Round vs Runoff Elections under Plurality Rule
No full textWe compare single ballot vs dual ballot elections under plurality rule, assuming sincere voting and allowing for partly endogenous party formation. Under the dual ballot, the number of parties is larger but the influence of extremists voters on equilibrium policy is smaller, because their bargaining power is reduced compared to a single ballot election. The predictions on the number of parties and on policy volatility are consistent with data on municipal elections in Italy, where cities with more (less) than 15,000 inhabitants have dual (single) ballots respectively.political extremism
Moderating Political Extremism: Single Round vs Runoff Elections under Plurality Rule
No full textWe compare single ballot vs dual ballot elections under plurality rule, assuming sincere voting and allowing for partly endogenous party formation. Under the dual ballot, the number of parties is larger but the influence of extremist voters on equilibrium policy is smaller, because their bargaining power is reduced compared to a single ballot election. The predictions on the number of parties and on policy volatility are consistent with data on municipal elections in Italy, where cities with more (less) than 15,000 inhabitants have dual (single) ballots respectively.run-off, municipal elections, political bargaining, property
MeSH term explosion and author rank improve expert recommendations
No full textInformation overload is an often-cited phenomenon that reduces the productivity, efficiency and efficacy of scientists. One challenge for scientists is to find appropriate collaborators in their research. The literature describes various solutions to the problem of expertise location, but most current approaches do not appear to be very suitable for expert recommendations in biomedical research. In this study, we present the development and initial evaluation of a vector space model-based algorithm to calculate researcher similarity using four inputs: 1) MeSH terms of publications; 2) MeSH terms and author rank; 3) exploded MeSH terms; and 4) exploded MeSH terms and author rank. We developed and evaluated the algorithm using a data set of 17,525 authors and their 22,542 papers. On average, our algorithms correctly predicted 2.5 of the top 5/10 coauthors of individual scientists. Exploded MeSH and author rank outperformed all other algorithms in accuracy, followed closely by MeSH and author rank. Our results show that the accuracy of MeSH term-based matching can be enhanced with other metadata such as author rank
Ballot order effects in independent director elections
No full textUsing a sample of individual mutual voting records, we examine ballot order effects in independent director elections. Our results show that down-ballot directors receive considerably less opposition from shareholders. This result holds in a sample where directors are positioned alphabetically on the proxy ballot, and, thus unrelated to the directors’ ability or position on the board. We find that the ballot order effect strengthens in settings where the ballot is more complex and shareholders are less attentive. These results suggest that investors, confronted with repeated decision making across multiple proxy votes, are subject to the choice fatigue bias that affects their voting patterns when electing directors. Furthermore, we find that the ballot order effect impacts director career concerns; although down-ballot directors are less likely to receive shareholder opposition, when they are opposed, they are more likely to leave the board. These findings, which document a systematic bias in the proxy voting process, are relevant to regulators and practitioners given the impact proxy voting has on firm governance
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