1,720,960 research outputs found
APPLICATION OF SPATIO-TEMPORAL EPIDEMIOLOGICAL MODELER (STEM) TO AN ANTHROPIC SMALLPOX DIFFUSION SCENARIO
No full textThe use of mathematical models to simulate the diffusion of biological agents represents an essential tool to understand the dynamics of epidemic spread. In particular, mathematical models can be applied to scenarios of deliberate release of biological warfare agents, e.g., during simulations of a terrorist attack, to evaluate their potential effects and to study possible strategies to implement effective countermeasures. In this paper, an open-source software named Spatio-Temporal Epidemiological Modeler (STEM) has been applied to a possible scenario of deliberate release of smallpox virus by an unknown terrorist group in Italy. By providing boundary conditions derived from the literature, and making conservative preliminary assumptions, it was possible to recreate a reference scenario for the voluntary diffusion of smallpox, while providing an insight into the application of user-friendly tools for the implementation of epidemiological models as a support for decision makers in the field of biosecurity
Infectious diseases seeker (Ids): An innovative tool for prompt identification of infectious diseases during outbreaks
No full textBackground: Several technologies for rapid molecular identification of pathogens are currently available; jointly with monitoring tools (i.e., web-based surveillance tools, infectious diseases modelers, and epidemic intelligence methods), they represent important components for timely outbreak detection and identification of the involved pathogen. The application of these approaches is usually feasible and effective when performed by healthcare professionals with specific expertise and skills and when data and resources are easily accessible. Contrariwise, in the field situation where healthcare workers or first responders from heterogeneous competences can be asked to investigate an outbreak of unknown origin, a simple and suitable tool for rapid agent identification and appropriate outbreak management is highly needed. Most especially when time is limited, available data are incomplete, and accessible infrastructure and resources are inadequate. The use of a prompt, user-friendly, and accessible tool able to rapidly recognize an infectious disease outbreak and with high sensitivity and precision may be a game-changer to support emergency response and public health investigations. Methods: This paper presents the work performed to implement and test an innovative tool for prompt identification of infectious diseases during outbreaks, called Infectious Diseases Seeker (IDS). IDS is a standalone software that runs on the most common operative systems. It has been built by integrating a database containing an interim set of 60 different disease causative agents and COVID-19 data and is able to work in an off-line mode without requiring a network connection. Results: IDS has been applied in a real and complex scenario in terms of concomitant infectious diseases (yellow fever, COVID-19, and Lassa fever), as can be in the second part of 2020 in Nigeria. The outcomes have allowed inferring that yellow fever (YF), and not Lassa fever, was affecting the area under investigation. Conclusions: Our result suggests that a tool like IDS could be valuable for the quick and easy identification and discrimination of infectious disease outbreaks even when concurrent outbreaks occur, like for the case study of YF and COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria
Evaluation of the Spatiotemporal Epidemiological Modeler (STEM) during the recent COVID-19 pandemic
Full text linkIn early December 2019, some people in China were diagnosed with an unknown pneumonia in Wuhan, in the Hubei province. The responsible of the outbreak was identified in a novel human-infecting coronavirus which differs both from severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus and from Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus. The new coronavirus, officially named severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 by the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses, has spread worldwide within few weeks. Only two vaccines have been approved by regulatory agencies and some others are under development. Moreover, effective treatments have not been yet identified or developed even if some potential molecules are under investigation. In a pandemic outbreak, when treatments are not available, the only method that contribute to reduce the virus spreading is the adoption of social distancing measures, like quarantine and isolation. With the intention of better managing emergencies like this, which are a great public health threat, it is important to dispose of predictive epidemiological tools that can help to understand both the virus spreading in terms of people infected, hospitalized, dead and recovered and the effectiveness of containment measures
First Prototype of the Infectious Diseases Seeker (IDS) Software for Prompt Identification of Infectious Diseases
Full text linkThe rapid detection of ongoing outbreak - and the identification of causative pathogen - is pivotal for the early recognition of public health threats. The emergence and re-emergence of infectious diseases are linked to several determinants, both human factors - such as population density, travel, and trade - and ecological factors - like climate change and agricultural practices. Several technologies are available for the rapid molecular identification of pathogens [e.g. real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR)], and together with on line monitoring tools of infectious disease activity and behaviour, they contribute to the surveillance system for infectious diseases. Web-based surveillance tools, infectious diseases modelling and epidemic intelligence methods represent crucial components for timely outbreak detection and rapid risk assessment. The study aims to integrate the current prevention and control system with a prediction tool for infectious diseases, based on regression analysis, to support decision makers, health care workers, and first responders to quickly and properly recognise an outbreak. This study has the intention to develop an infectious disease regressive prediction tool working with an off-line database built with specific epidemiological parameters of a set of infectious diseases of high consequences. The tool has been developed as a first prototype of a software solution called Infectious Diseases Seeker (IDS) and it had been established in two main steps, the database building stage and the software implementation stage (MATLAB® environment). The IDS has been tested with the epidemiological data of three outbreaks occurred recently: severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemic in China (2002-2003), plague outbreak in Madagascar (2017) and the Ebola virus disease outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo (2018). The outcomes are promising and they reveal that the software has been able to recognize and characterize these outbreaks. The future perspective about this software regards the developing of that tool as a useful and user-friendly predictive tool appropriate for first responders, health care workers, and public health decision makers to help them in predicting, assessing and contrasting outbreaks
Testing the identification effectiveness of an unknown outbreak of the Infectious Diseases Seeker (IDS) using and comparing the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak with the past SARS and MERS epidemics
No full textBackground: The aim of this research is to assess the predictive accuracy of the Infectious Diseases Seeker (IDS) – an innovative tool for prompt identification of the causative agent of infectious diseases during outbreaks – when field epidemiological data collected from a novel outbreak of unknown origin are analysed by the tool. For this reason, it has been taken into account the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, which began in China at the end of December 2019, has rapidly spread around the globe, and it has led to a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC), declared to the 30th of January 2020 by the World Health Organization (WHO). Methods: The IDS takes advantage of an off-line database, built before the COVID-19 pandemic, which represents a pivotal characteristic for working without an internet connection. The software has been tested using the epidemiological data available in different and progressive stages of the COVID-19 outbreak. As a comparison, the results of the tests performed using the epidemiological data from the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) epidemic in 2002 and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) epidemic in 2012, are shown. Results: The overall outcomes provided by the software are comforting, as a matter of the fact that IDS has identified with a good accuracy the SARS and MERS epidemics (over 90%), while, as expected, it has not provided erroneous and equivocal readings after the elaboration COVID-19 epidemic data. Conclusions: Even though IDS has not recognized the COVID-19 epidemic, it has not given to the end user a false result and wrong interpretation, as expected by the developers. For this reason, IDS reveals itself as useful software to identify a possible epidemic or outbreak. Thus, the intention of developers is to plan, once the software will be released, dedicated updates and upgrades of the database (e.g., SARS-CoV-2) in order to keep this tool increasingly useful and applicable to reality
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Full text linkThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Variations on the Author
Full text link“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis
Full text linkWe provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis
Effectiveness and safety of infliximab dose escalation in patients with refractory Takayasu arteritis: A real-life experience from a monocentric cohort
No full textObjectives: To evaluate effectiveness and safety of infliximab dose escalation in Takayasu arteritis (TAK) patients. To identify factors associated with refractoriness to standard-dose infliximab.Methods: Medical records of infliximab-treated TAK patients from a large single-centre observational cohort were reviewed. Infliximab therapy duration, concomitant therapies, and reasons for dose escalation and therapy suspension were evaluated. Occurrence of adverse events was recorded. A comparison between patients who maintained infliximab standard-dose and those who needed dose-escalation was performed. Factors associated with refractoriness to standard dose were analysed.Results: Forty-one patients were included. Starting infliximab dose was 5 mg/kg 6-weekly and 28 patients (68%) needed dose escalation. Persistence/recurrence of clinical symptoms was the most frequent reason for escalation. Median therapy duration was 39 (IQR, 26-61) months in the standard-dose group and 68 (38-87) months in the intensified-dose group. In the intensified-dose-group, infliximab was suspended in eight patients (29%) after a median of 38 (31-71) months, due to loss of response (n= 7) or patient's request (n= 1). Patients in the intensifieddose group had a higher number of relapses (3.4 vs 0.8 events/patient) and received a higher cumulative steroid dose (1.7 [1.6-2.3] vs 1.3 [1-1.6] g/month of prednisone). Three patients from the intensified-dose group had serious infections; one patient from the standard-dose group developed paradoxical psoriasis. At univariate analysis, age at diagnosis and age at infliximab start were associated with infliximab escalation.Conclusion: In TAK, dose escalation is safe and allows to optimise infliximab durability in refractory patients. Younger patients seem to be more refractory to standard dosages
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