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    Urban Transition as a Result of Transport Investment: The Case Bus Rapid Transit Lahore Pakistan

    No full text
    The rapid population growth and urbanization have escalated the need for diverse modes of transport around the world. Moreover, the pressure in densely populated urban areas has compelled people to live on fringes of the city. As a consequence, this spread of population along the urban peripheries has amplified the need for mobility, making most people use private cars to satisfy their mobility needs. Numerous problems have emerged with this upsurge of automobiles including environmental degradation, increased energy consumption, congestion, increased road accidents, travel delays, noise, and air pollution. Therefore, governments are spending huge amounts of their resources to encourage users to shift towards more sustainable and green modes of transport. BRT has gained popularity around the world, especially in developing countries because of its cost-effectiveness in contrast to expensive rail and LRT systems. As developing countries having inadequate capital resources; envisaging its benefits, BRT has become increasingly appealing for government investment. However, the majority of the BRT systems are relatively new, therefore, empirical evidence to assert their impacts on urban development, travel behavior, and economy is insufficient. Little research is apparent from the perspective of benefits associated with BRT development, especially on the following three important aspects. Firstly, inadequate research on BRT from the perspective of the user is evident. This is problematic because social benefits provided by the BRT serve as the utmost justification for government investment. Secondly, public transport investment is generally perceived by planners as a pure and exclusively mobility investment strategy while city-shaping impacts of BRT are mostly being ignored. Thirdly, access benefits underlined in wake of transit investment are capitalized into higher land values, and it becomes essential to quantify the land/ property value effect of transport investment. Moreover, achieving sustainable cities, sustainable transport, and decent economic growth are major sustainable development goals (SDGs) delineated by the United Nations. Therefore, to enhance our knowledge, this dissertation examines the external benefits of BRT and attempts to quantify the travel behavior, urban development, and economic impacts that emerged after the implementation of BRT. This study focuses on the case of BRT in Lahore, Pakistan. Nevertheless this research could serve as a representative for developing countries and more specifically for those of South-Asia. Since the association between BRT and land use complex, therefore, this research utilizes a more sophisticated approach i.e. actor relational approach to ascertain the constitution of different sub-systems (e.g. transport, urban development, and economy) akeholders helped to determine the factors that instigate these transformations and changes in the role and responsibilities of dominant stakeholders and the government. The analysis of travel behavior indicated that BRT-Lahore has substantial impacts on the behavior of travelers. Besides a modal shift, BRT has also improved the choices for more environmentally friendly modes of transport, like walking. It is revealed that travelers’ characteristics such as age, gender, occupation, education, income, travel purpose, vehicle ownership significantly influences the mode shift to BRT. The analysis of service-related attributes of BRT (e.g. time, costs, safety, reliability, comfort, integration) indicates that travel time, travel cost, and safety are the most important factors to influence the choice for BRT. Performance analysis delineated that a substantial difference was observed for the mean change in travel time between BRT and other modes. BRT users have less travel time compared to using a car, motorcycle, rickshaw, or other modes of transport. Also, a difference in mean change in travel cost was observed between BRT and car users. BRT is a preferred mobility alternative in Lahore because it is cheaper, faster, and safer compared to other modes of transport. Moreover, BRT in Lahore has substantially influenced the travel pattern of people. The empirical investigation exploring urban development patterns in Lahore indicated that BRT, Lahore has the potential to stimulate land-use transformation. However, the extent of transformation is context-dependent. All the assessed BRT stations have shown an increase in commercial activities due to land-use conversion. The results indicate that all the areas have gone through land-use transformation, however, the extent of transition varies across the entire corridor. Change in population and building density is also evident in the study area. Population density has increased from 268 persons/acre to 299 persons/acre. An increase in building density for residential and commercial uses is observed majorly for all stations. In comparison to general development patterns in Lahore, areas around BRT have become increasingly appealing for residential and commercial activities. Thus, the observed land-use transformations and new activities indicate that BRT in Lahore is somehow successful in encouraging land-use transformation in its vicinity and that these benefits can be catered efficiently for the creation of a compact urban neighborhood. The economic impacts of BRT being investigated in this dissertation mainly cover its impacts on property values, inward investment, and extension of the labor market. The hedonic pricing model (HPM) and GWR model is developed to investigate the relationship between property values and various independent variables (e.g. property attributes, neighborhood attributes, and accessibility). The hedonic model, as a global model, provides the average impacts of independent variables on property value, whereas GWR as a local model provides the opportunity to explore and map the local variations in property value premium. The results of the HPM indicate that the physical characteristics of the property like building age and number of bedrooms are significantly associated with an increase in property value. The width of the road as a neighborhood attribute is also associated with a higher premium; whereas, from accessibility attributes, only proximity to BRT station is significantly linked to the higher premium of the property. The mapping of local parameters shows a significant association between property value and proximity to the BRT station over the entire length of the BRT corridor. However, properties located in the north within 500 meters of Shahdara, Timber Market, and Qartaba chowk station gained a higher premium compared to properties located around other BRT stations. Probably the influence of downtown Lahore also applies here. But for the entire corridor, in general, a decline in the distance to the BRT station is associated with an increase in property value. Nevertheless, the value of premium varies over the entire BRT corridor. The evidence from BRT-Lahore concerning inward investment indicated that an increase in economic activities is also witnessed along the corridor. Almost 22,000 million rupees (US $140 million) inward investment is detected after the implementation of BRT, which ultimately brought around 800 new employees. Thus, indicating that BRT, Lahore has significantly impacted its neighboring areas in terms of urban development, travel behavior, and economy. Besides providing mobility benefits, BRT until now is successful in generating land development and economic activities. The analysis of the interrelationship between different impacts of BRT shows that this relationship between urban development, transportation, and economic development is continuous as they work in both directions. The development of any transportation system influences different aspects of urban and economic development. Similarly, urban development and economic factors also influence travel patterns and thus transport. In the future, when there would be more high-rise development along BRT, this will ultimately induce new demands for transport that would lead to an upgrade of the BRT services. This interrelation between urban development, transport, and economy can be explained through the actor relational approach (ARA). According to this approach, the interrelation between different human and non-human actors in a specific dynamic setting affects the conscious actors and locatable dynamic settings which further drives change. Hence, agencies and institutions co-evolve and they can drive towards a constant state of becoming and therewith towards a condition of innovation. Nevertheless, the analysis of stakeholder’s roles and responsibilities determines that there has not been much change after the BRT implementation. To handle the BRT operation and maintenance matters in and around Lahore, a new organization named Punjab Mass-transit Authority (PMA) has been established. The foundation of PMA has changed the role and responsibilities of few transport-related organizations, including the Lahore Transport Company (LTC) and the Traffic Engineering and Planning Agency (TEPA). However, no special policy measures were introduced to encourage transit-oriented development along the BRT corridor and the question of integrating land-use and transport development in the context of BRT remains the same. Although new building and zoning regulations are approved in 2020, it is too early to assess their impact in stimulating urban development in Lahore. But, in the new regulations, all the areas are opened for high-rise development. Futhermore, it was not focused to upgrade the infrastructure services and more focus is needed here. Given the limited financial resources, it is difficult to cater to the infrastructure requirements. Considering the current circumstance and financial constraints there is a need to focus on and utilize specific areas around transit corridors (e.g. those to BRT and Orange line) as a focal point for high-rise and high-density-based development. Finally, a number of recommendations have been formulated in the framework to encourage transit-oriented development (TOD) in Lahore. Several departments/agencies are working for transport and land use development with overlapping jurisdiction. There exists poor coordination between these actors (actors related to transport and land use) which often results in negative spillovers and inefficiencies. First of all, there is a need to revamp the role of development and transport authority in the context of TOD. In the present fragment structure where responsibilities are distributed between various actors, one authority should take a leading role in integrating land-use and transport investment. In Lahore, urban development activities are mainly supervised by either the Lahore development authority (LDA) or municipal administration and in view of transport agencies such as Lahore Transport Company (LTC), Punjab Masstranist Authority (PMA), and Traffic Engineering and Transport Planning Agency (TEPA), the LDA should take the lead role in the planning and execution of the TOD plan. Strong political support to execute this TOD plan could play an important role in this regard. A transit-oriented plan can work on a mechanism of control and incentives and should be supplemented by a redevelopment plan, especially focusing on outdated areas. We recommend amendments in zoning regulation for integrated urban development. Building and zoning regulations should be amended to encourage high-rise development. Higher density can accommodate new dwellings, which would help to counter urban sprawl in Lahore. Mobility nodes (i.e., BRT stations) can be promoted as places for higher rise development and density tapering as moving away from BRT. Higher density can be promoted by introducing tax exemption schemes and assisting land assembly requirements in the central areas. Policies encouraging land assembly could help in generating new development opportunities and a window for public-private partnerships. Nevertheless, besides density bonuses, local development authorities need to upgrade supportive infrastructure. In order to enhance the use of BRT in Lahore, it is recommended to ensure good accessibility to the BRT stations and to enrich the urban landscape by improving streetscape and sidewalks. The integration of BRT with other modes of transport is another important aspect, especially when non-motorized modes like walking and cycling are concerned. In Lahore, walking as a mode of transport has increased after the development of BRT. A good network of sidewalks and attractive streetscapes would help to achieve the objective of a walkable city and could increase multi-mode travel. Special attention should be given to design multiple urban spaces around the TOD. Policy measures, like restrictions on private vehicle use or congestion charging in the central area of the city, can induce a modal shift to BRT. Though this is not an easy task, encouraging public participation can help to achieve the goal of more sustainable transportation. Last but not the least, removing financial obstacles is another element of great importance when implementing TOD plans. First, public-private partnerships during land assembly can help to generate additional resources. Secondly, land value capture policy in the future could be utilized for this purpose. The findings of this study can be considered before implementing other transit systems in Lahore that are delineated in the Lahore Urban Transport Master Plan. Several barriers need to be dealt with if future BRT/transit investments are to successfully shape the urban environment in developing countries around the world. Integration between transport investment and land-use policies can play a decisive role in realizing compact and sustainable neighborhoods. Although this research is situational, the general recommendations from this could be a useful tool for the planning of BRT systems in other Southeast Asian cities

    Urban Transition as a Result of Transport Investment: The Case Bus Rapid Transit Lahore Pakistan

    No full text
    The rapid population growth and urbanization have escalated the need for diverse modes of transport around the world. Moreover, the pressure in densely populated urban areas has compelled people to live on fringes of the city. As a consequence, this spread of population along the urban peripheries has amplified the need for mobility, making most people use private cars to satisfy their mobility needs. Numerous problems have emerged with this upsurge of automobiles including environmental degradation, increased energy consumption, congestion, increased road accidents, travel delays, noise, and air pollution. Therefore, governments are spending huge amounts of their resources to encourage users to shift towards more sustainable and green modes of transport. BRT has gained popularity around the world, especially in developing countries because of its cost-effectiveness in contrast to expensive rail and LRT systems. As developing countries having inadequate capital resources; envisaging its benefits, BRT has become increasingly appealing for government investment. However, the majority of the BRT systems are relatively new, therefore, empirical evidence to assert their impacts on urban development, travel behavior, and economy is insufficient. Little research is apparent from the perspective of benefits associated with BRT development, especially on the following three important aspects. Firstly, inadequate research on BRT from the perspective of the user is evident. This is problematic because social benefits provided by the BRT serve as the utmost justification for government investment. Secondly, public transport investment is generally perceived by planners as a pure and exclusively mobility investment strategy while city-shaping impacts of BRT are mostly being ignored. Thirdly, access benefits underlined in wake of transit investment are capitalized into higher land values, and it becomes essential to quantify the land/ property value effect of transport investment. Moreover, achieving sustainable cities, sustainable transport, and decent economic growth are major sustainable development goals (SDGs) delineated by the United Nations. Therefore, to enhance our knowledge, this dissertation examines the external benefits of BRT and attempts to quantify the travel behavior, urban development, and economic impacts that emerged after the implementation of BRT. This study focuses on the case of BRT in Lahore, Pakistan. Nevertheless this research could serve as a representative for developing countries and more specifically for those of South-Asia. Since the association between BRT and land use complex, therefore, this research utilizes a more sophisticated approach i.e. actor relational approach to ascertain the constitution of different sub-systems (e.g. transport, urban development, and economy) akeholders helped to determine the factors that instigate these transformations and changes in the role and responsibilities of dominant stakeholders and the government. The analysis of travel behavior indicated that BRT-Lahore has substantial impacts on the behavior of travelers. Besides a modal shift, BRT has also improved the choices for more environmentally friendly modes of transport, like walking. It is revealed that travelers’ characteristics such as age, gender, occupation, education, income, travel purpose, vehicle ownership significantly influences the mode shift to BRT. The analysis of service-related attributes of BRT (e.g. time, costs, safety, reliability, comfort, integration) indicates that travel time, travel cost, and safety are the most important factors to influence the choice for BRT. Performance analysis delineated that a substantial difference was observed for the mean change in travel time between BRT and other modes. BRT users have less travel time compared to using a car, motorcycle, rickshaw, or other modes of transport. Also, a difference in mean change in travel cost was observed between BRT and car users. BRT is a preferred mobility alternative in Lahore because it is cheaper, faster, and safer compared to other modes of transport. Moreover, BRT in Lahore has substantially influenced the travel pattern of people. The empirical investigation exploring urban development patterns in Lahore indicated that BRT, Lahore has the potential to stimulate land-use transformation. However, the extent of transformation is context-dependent. All the assessed BRT stations have shown an increase in commercial activities due to land-use conversion. The results indicate that all the areas have gone through land-use transformation, however, the extent of transition varies across the entire corridor. Change in population and building density is also evident in the study area. Population density has increased from 268 persons/acre to 299 persons/acre. An increase in building density for residential and commercial uses is observed majorly for all stations. In comparison to general development patterns in Lahore, areas around BRT have become increasingly appealing for residential and commercial activities. Thus, the observed land-use transformations and new activities indicate that BRT in Lahore is somehow successful in encouraging land-use transformation in its vicinity and that these benefits can be catered efficiently for the creation of a compact urban neighborhood. The economic impacts of BRT being investigated in this dissertation mainly cover its impacts on property values, inward investment, and extension of the labor market. The hedonic pricing model (HPM) and GWR model is developed to investigate the relationship between property values and various independent variables (e.g. property attributes, neighborhood attributes, and accessibility). The hedonic model, as a global model, provides the average impacts of independent variables on property value, whereas GWR as a local model provides the opportunity to explore and map the local variations in property value premium. The results of the HPM indicate that the physical characteristics of the property like building age and number of bedrooms are significantly associated with an increase in property value. The width of the road as a neighborhood attribute is also associated with a higher premium; whereas, from accessibility attributes, only proximity to BRT station is significantly linked to the higher premium of the property. The mapping of local parameters shows a significant association between property value and proximity to the BRT station over the entire length of the BRT corridor. However, properties located in the north within 500 meters of Shahdara, Timber Market, and Qartaba chowk station gained a higher premium compared to properties located around other BRT stations. Probably the influence of downtown Lahore also applies here. But for the entire corridor, in general, a decline in the distance to the BRT station is associated with an increase in property value. Nevertheless, the value of premium varies over the entire BRT corridor. The evidence from BRT-Lahore concerning inward investment indicated that an increase in economic activities is also witnessed along the corridor. Almost 22,000 million rupees (US $140 million) inward investment is detected after the implementation of BRT, which ultimately brought around 800 new employees. Thus, indicating that BRT, Lahore has significantly impacted its neighboring areas in terms of urban development, travel behavior, and economy. Besides providing mobility benefits, BRT until now is successful in generating land development and economic activities. The analysis of the interrelationship between different impacts of BRT shows that this relationship between urban development, transportation, and economic development is continuous as they work in both directions. The development of any transportation system influences different aspects of urban and economic development. Similarly, urban development and economic factors also influence travel patterns and thus transport. In the future, when there would be more high-rise development along BRT, this will ultimately induce new demands for transport that would lead to an upgrade of the BRT services. This interrelation between urban development, transport, and economy can be explained through the actor relational approach (ARA). According to this approach, the interrelation between different human and non-human actors in a specific dynamic setting affects the conscious actors and locatable dynamic settings which further drives change. Hence, agencies and institutions co-evolve and they can drive towards a constant state of becoming and therewith towards a condition of innovation. Nevertheless, the analysis of stakeholder’s roles and responsibilities determines that there has not been much change after the BRT implementation. To handle the BRT operation and maintenance matters in and around Lahore, a new organization named Punjab Mass-transit Authority (PMA) has been established. The foundation of PMA has changed the role and responsibilities of few transport-related organizations, including the Lahore Transport Company (LTC) and the Traffic Engineering and Planning Agency (TEPA). However, no special policy measures were introduced to encourage transit-oriented development along the BRT corridor and the question of integrating land-use and transport development in the context of BRT remains the same. Although new building and zoning regulations are approved in 2020, it is too early to assess their impact in stimulating urban development in Lahore. But, in the new regulations, all the areas are opened for high-rise development. Futhermore, it was not focused to upgrade the infrastructure services and more focus is needed here. Given the limited financial resources, it is difficult to cater to the infrastructure requirements. Considering the current circumstance and financial constraints there is a need to focus on and utilize specific areas around transit corridors (e.g. those to BRT and Orange line) as a focal point for high-rise and high-density-based development. Finally, a number of recommendations have been formulated in the framework to encourage transit-oriented development (TOD) in Lahore. Several departments/agencies are working for transport and land use development with overlapping jurisdiction. There exists poor coordination between these actors (actors related to transport and land use) which often results in negative spillovers and inefficiencies. First of all, there is a need to revamp the role of development and transport authority in the context of TOD. In the present fragment structure where responsibilities are distributed between various actors, one authority should take a leading role in integrating land-use and transport investment. In Lahore, urban development activities are mainly supervised by either the Lahore development authority (LDA) or municipal administration and in view of transport agencies such as Lahore Transport Company (LTC), Punjab Masstranist Authority (PMA), and Traffic Engineering and Transport Planning Agency (TEPA), the LDA should take the lead role in the planning and execution of the TOD plan. Strong political support to execute this TOD plan could play an important role in this regard. A transit-oriented plan can work on a mechanism of control and incentives and should be supplemented by a redevelopment plan, especially focusing on outdated areas. We recommend amendments in zoning regulation for integrated urban development. Building and zoning regulations should be amended to encourage high-rise development. Higher density can accommodate new dwellings, which would help to counter urban sprawl in Lahore. Mobility nodes (i.e., BRT stations) can be promoted as places for higher rise development and density tapering as moving away from BRT. Higher density can be promoted by introducing tax exemption schemes and assisting land assembly requirements in the central areas. Policies encouraging land assembly could help in generating new development opportunities and a window for public-private partnerships. Nevertheless, besides density bonuses, local development authorities need to upgrade supportive infrastructure. In order to enhance the use of BRT in Lahore, it is recommended to ensure good accessibility to the BRT stations and to enrich the urban landscape by improving streetscape and sidewalks. The integration of BRT with other modes of transport is another important aspect, especially when non-motorized modes like walking and cycling are concerned. In Lahore, walking as a mode of transport has increased after the development of BRT. A good network of sidewalks and attractive streetscapes would help to achieve the objective of a walkable city and could increase multi-mode travel. Special attention should be given to design multiple urban spaces around the TOD. Policy measures, like restrictions on private vehicle use or congestion charging in the central area of the city, can induce a modal shift to BRT. Though this is not an easy task, encouraging public participation can help to achieve the goal of more sustainable transportation. Last but not the least, removing financial obstacles is another element of great importance when implementing TOD plans. First, public-private partnerships during land assembly can help to generate additional resources. Secondly, land value capture policy in the future could be utilized for this purpose. The findings of this study can be considered before implementing other transit systems in Lahore that are delineated in the Lahore Urban Transport Master Plan. Several barriers need to be dealt with if future BRT/transit investments are to successfully shape the urban environment in developing countries around the world. Integration between transport investment and land-use policies can play a decisive role in realizing compact and sustainable neighborhoods. Although this research is situational, the general recommendations from this could be a useful tool for the planning of BRT systems in other Southeast Asian cities

    Relationship between road traffic features and accidents: An application of two-stage decision-making approach for transportation engineers

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    Introduction: An efficient decision-making process is one of the major necessities in the performance analysis of road safety for human safety and budget allocation procedure. Method: During the road safety analysis procedure, data envelopment analysis (DEA) supports policymakers in differentiating between risky and safe segments of a homogeneous highway. Cross risk, an extension of the DEA models, provides more information about risky segments for ranking purpose. After the identification of risky segments, the next goal is to identify those factors that are major contributors in making the segments risky. Results: This research proposes a methodology to analyze road safety performance by using a combination of DEA with the decision tree (DT) technique. The proposed methodology not only provides a facility to identify problematic road segments with the help of DEA but also identifies contributing factors with the help of DT. Practical applications: The application of the proposed model will help the policymakers to identify the major factors contributing to road accidents and to analyze the safety performance of road infrastructure to help allocate the budget during the decision-making process.This research is jointly supported by TITE and IMOB for publication. The authors thank HE-Boong Kwon (USA), one of the pioneers of a similar method, for his valuable guidance

    Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis

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    The present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed

    Variations on the Author

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    “Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship

    Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis

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    We provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis

    Dispelling the Myths Behind First-author Citation Counts

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    We conducted a full-scale evaluative citation analysis study of scholars in the XML research field to explore just how different from each other author rankings resulting from different citation counting methods actually are, and to demonstrate the capability of emerging data and tools on the Web in supporting more realistic citation counting methods. Our results contest some common arguments for the continued use of first-author citation counts in the evaluation of scholars, such as high correlations between author rankings by first-author citation counts and other citation counting methods, and high costs of using more realistic citation counting methods that are not well-supported by the ISI databases. It is argued that increasingly available digital full text research papers make it possible for citation analysis studies to go beyond what the ISI databases have directly supported and to employ more sophisticated methods

    Author Index

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    Road Safety Risk Evaluation Using GIS-Based Data Envelopment Analysis—Artificial Neural Networks Approach

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    Identification of the most significant factors for evaluating road risk level is an important question in road safety research, predominantly for decision-making processes. However, model selection for this specific purpose is the most relevant focus in current research. In this paper, we proposed a new methodological approach for road safety risk evaluation, which is a two-stage framework consisting of data envelopment analysis (DEA) in combination with artificial neural networks (ANNs). In the first phase, the risk level of the road segments under study was calculated by applying DEA, and high-risk segments were identified. Then, the ANNs technique was adopted in the second phase, which appears to be a valuable analytical tool for risk prediction. The practical application of DEA-ANN approach within the Geographical Information System (GIS) environment will be an efficient approach for road safety risk analysis
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