1,721,120 research outputs found
Estimating Future Heat Related Mortality as a Function of Climate Change
No full textProiezioni degli effetti dei cambiamenti climatici
Predictions of climate changes health effect
The first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Tuscany (Italy): A SI2R2D compartmental model with uncertainty evaluation
No full textWith the aim of studying the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 infection in the Tuscany region of Italy during the first epidemic wave (February-June 2020), we define a compartmental model that accounts for both detected and undetected infections and assumes that only notified cases can die. We estimate the infection fatality rate, the case fatality rate, and the basic reproduction number, modeled as a time-varying function, by calibrating on the cumulative daily number of observed deaths and notified infected, after fixing to plausible values the other model parameters to assure identifiability. The confidence intervals are estimated by a parametric bootstrap procedure and a Global Sensitivity Analysis is performed to assess the sensitivity of the estimates to changes in the values of the fixed parameters. According to our results, the basic reproduction number drops from an initial value of 6.055 to 0 at the end of the national lockdown, then it grows again, but remaining under 1. At the beginning of the epidemic, the case and the infection fatality rates are estimated to be 13.1% and 2.3%, respectively. Among the parameters considered as fixed, the average time from infection to recovery for the not notified infected appears to be the most impacting one on the model estimates. The probability for an infected to be notified has a relevant impact on the infection fatality rate and on the shape of the epidemic curve. This stresses the need of collecting information on these parameters to better understand the phenomenon and get reliable predictions
Health Impact Assessment for the Lombardia Region (IT)
No full textvalutazione di impatto dell'inquinamento atmosferico
impact assessment of air pollutio
Task-related electromyographic spectral changes in the human masseter and temporalis muscles
No full text
Comparison of two statistical indicators in communicating epidemiological results to the population: A randomized study in a high environmental risk area of Italy
Full text linkWhen communicating risks to the general population, the format of the epidemiological results may affect individual reactions. In environmental epidemiology, no study has compared the use of different statistical formats in communicating results to the population. The aim of this paper is to investigate whether the degree of concern expressed by residents of a high environmental risk site, regarding epidemiological results on cancer mortality in the area where they live, is influenced by the statistical indicator used in communication
Task-related electromyographic spectral changes in the human masseter and temporalis muscles
No full text
The meta-analysis of the Italian studies on short-term effects of air pollution (MISA): old and new issues on the interpretation of the statistical evidences
No full textThe second meta-analysis of the Italian studies on short-term health effects of air pollution, known as MISA-2, was based on daily time series of indicators of both pollution and of health outcomes. It covered 15 cities during 1996–2002 for a total population of approximately nine millions. Health outcomes included mortality for natural causes, for respiratory diseases and for cardiovascular conditions, as well as hospital admissions for respiratory, cardiac and cerebrovascular diseases. Pollutants considered in univariate analyses were sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxide (NO2), carbon monoxide (CO), suspended particulate matter (SPM) measuring less than 10 μm diameter (PM10) and ozone (O3, limited to the summer period). Results, including risk estimates, have been largely confirmatory of findings obtained in previous large meta-analytic studies carried out in North America and in Europe. A full report in Italian is available. The present contribution summarises the results of MISA-2 and addresses three major issues regarding their interpretation: robustness of the causal inferential process, the role of specific air pollutants and the reliability of risk estimates. The former issue is stressed according to Bradford Hill's criteria and the conclusion is reached that at least for the association of air pollution with an increase in mortality the evidence for causality is strong. Assessing the role of each air pollutant is problematic: there is some evidence that the effects of PM10 are partly confounded by other pollutants, but PM10 may not be the best indicator of the role of air SPM (routine measures of PM2.5 have not been introduced in Italy). As for risk estimates, the per cent increase in risk of mortality for unit increase in PM10 concentration, measured in MISA-2, is remarkably similar to estimates in other studies and there is indication for linearity of the dose–response relationship
Impatto a breve termine dell’inquinamento dell’aria nelle città coperte dalla sorveglianza epidemiologica EpiAir2. [Short-term impact of air pollution among Italian cities covered by the EpiAir2 project].
No full textAbstract
OBJECTIVES: to estimate the short-term impact of air pollutants on adult population of 23 Italian cities on the calendar period 2006- 2009 as part of the EpiAir2 project.
DESIGN, MATERIALS AND METHODS: for each city, the short-term impact of air pollution on mortality was estimated. In particular, it was calculated the number of deaths attributable to particulate matter levels (PM10 and PM2.5) exceeding different thresholds deriving from the European Union legislation and the World Health Organization guidelines (PM10: 20 and 40 μg/m(3), reduction of 20% up to 20 μg/m(3) and more than 35 days per year with daily average above 50 μg/m(3); PM2.5: 10, 18 and 25 μg/m(3), reduction of 20% up to 18 μg/m(3)). The impact evaluation was done combining the effect estimates of air pollutant, the observed mortality level and the air pollution concentration measured by the ambient monitors. Regarding effects, the posterior city-specific distributions arising from a Bayesian metanalysis was employed. Uncertainty around the impact estimates was obtained by Monte Carlo methods.
RESULTS: overall, in the 23 cities considered in the present study attributable deaths to short-term effects of PM10 concentrations above 20 μg/m(3) as annual average and of PM2.5 concentrations above 10 μg/m(3) on the period 2006-2009 was respectively 0.9% (assuming independence among cities the 80% credibility interval is 0.4-1.4) and 0.8% (80%CrI 0.2-1.3) of natural mortality. The impact was larger for the cities of the river Po valley, the Florence area and the large conurbations of Rome, Naples and Palermo: considering PM10 1.0% (80%CrI 0.4-1.5) vs. 0.4% (80%CrI 0.2-0.7) of natural deaths among the other cities in the study. Pollution reduction actions as prescribed by the European Union legislation, i.e. a 20% reduction up to 20 μg/m(3) for PM10 and up to 18 μg/m(3) for PM2.5, would have saved, over all the cities covered by this study, 42% and 51% of all attributable deaths, respectively.
CONCLUSIONS: during the study period, air pollution exposure was responsible for a relevant impact on mortality in the enrolled cities. Policies based on percent reduction of PM10 and PM2.5 as prescribed by the European Union could substantially reduce the short term impact on population mortality
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