1,720,985 research outputs found
A Causal Analysis of the R&D Interactions between the EU and the US
No full textThis paper examines the relationships between the aggregate R&D activities of the EU and the US using multivariate Granger-causality tests. Our estimation results indicate that the EU reacts positively to increases in R&D productivity in the US. On the other hand, R&D activity in the EU is a direct Granger-cause of both R&D and labour productivity in the US, and the effects are negative. It was shown in the literature that the US reacts submissively to successful Japanese R&D. We extend the literature by demonstrating that the US also reacts submissively to increased R&D effort in the E
Influence of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Instruments on the Growth or Real GNP in post-1980 Turkey: An Empirical investigation
No full textA Causal Analysis of the R&D Interactions between the EU and the US
No full textThis paper examines the relationships between the aggregate R&D activities of the EU and the US using multivariate Granger-causality tests. Our estimation results indicate that the EU reacts positively to increases in R&D productivity in the US. On the other hand, R&D activity in the EU is a direct Granger-cause of both R&D and labour productivity in the US, and the effects are negative. It was shown in the literature that the US reacts submissively to successful Japanese R&D. We extend the literature by demonstrating that the US also reacts submissively to increased R&D effort in the EU.
Measuring the strength of cointegration and Granger-causality
Get PDFThis paper proposes a methodology that combines the use of Schwarz's BIC in subset autoregression and subset transfer function identification along with the posterior odds ratio test developed by Poskitt & Tremayne (1987) in the context of testing for Granger-causality and cointegration tests. This approach provides a measure for the strength (decisiveness) of causality and cointegration between the variables of interest. As an illustration of our methodology, we reexamine the case of bivariate relationship between money and income in Canada
Christmas cards, Easter bunnies, and Granger-causality
Get PDFThis paper takes a closer look at the conceptual grounds of the notion of causality in Granger's sense. We start with the often jokingly made remark that ‘Christmas card sales Granger-cause Christmas' Then, we extend the example to the more challenging case of chocolate Easter bunny sales and Easter. We show that any references to Granger-causality in these cases are due to the misinterpretation of the concept. Moving further on methodological grounds, we argue that the concept of Granger-causality calls for a multivariate framework of analysis. This is because taking all available relevant information into account is indeed required in Granger's definition of causality. This is also in line with rational behaviour and learning under imperfect and incomplete information. The implications of employing a multivariate framework of analysis is discussed in terms of the additional insights it brings; namely, direct, indirect, and spurious cases of Granger-causality. Finally, we examine the semantics of the definition of causality in Granger's sens
Oil prices and the Swiss economy
Get PDFThis paper examines the macroeconomic effects of an oil price shock in a small open industrial economy without oil resources, namely, Switzerland. First, we test whether oil price shocks Granger-cause Swiss macroeconomic variables, and use a medium-scale macroeconometric model to track the effects of an oil price shock. Our estimates show that large increases in oil prices lead to a rather small decline in Swiss real GDP. Furthermore, there is no permanent pass-through effect via core inflation. Oil price shocks also adversely affect Swiss exports, but imports also shrink and lessen the overall impact on real GDP growth
Influence of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Instruments on the Growth or Real GNP in post-1980 Turkey: An Empirical investigation
No full textR&D races and spillovers between the EU and the US: Some causal evidence
Get PDFThis paper examines the relationships between the R&D sector activities of the EU and the US using multivariate Granger-causality tests. The multivariate framework employed also allows us to make causal inferences about the effects of R&D activity on labour productivity in the home and foreign country. As a novelty, we employ the subset transfer function methodology to account for the possibility of dry holes in the effects of R&D efforts on economic activity. Our estimation results indicate that R&D activity in the EU is a direct Granger-cause of both R&D and labour productivity in the US, and the effects are negative. On the other hand, the EU reacts positively to increases in R&D productivity in the US. These findings are largely in line with the actual developments in the productivity differentials between the EU and the US and the patterns in their relative shares in the world market for high tech exports
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