1,720,959 research outputs found
Essays in nonlinear macroeconomic modeling and econometrics.
Get PDFDoctor of PhilosophyDepartment of EconomicsLance J. BachmeierThis dissertation consists of three essays in nonlinear macroeconomic modeling and econometrics. In the first essay, we decompose oil price movements into oil demand (stock market) shocks and oil supply (oil-market) shocks, and examine the response of the stock market to these shocks. We find that when oil prices are “net-increasing”, a stock market shock that causes the S&P 500 to rise by one percentage point will cause the price of oil to rise approximately 0.2 percentage points, with a statistically significant positive effect one day after the stock market shock. On the other hand, the response of the stock market to an oil market shock is a decline of 6.8 percent when the price of oil doubles. For other days, the initial response of the oil market to a stock market shock is the same as in the net oil price increase case (by construction). We then analyze the response of monetary policy to the identified stock market and oil market shocks and find that short-term interest rates respond to the stock market shocks but not the oil market shocks. Finally, we evaluate the predictive power of the decomposed stock market and oil shocks relative to the change in the price of oil. We find statistically significant gains in both the in-sample fit and out-of-sample forecast accuracy when using the identified stock market and oil market shocks rather than the change in the price of oil.
The second essay revisits the statistical specification of near-multicollinearity in the logistic regression model using the Probabilistic Reduction approach. We argue that the ceteris paribus clause invoked with near-multicollinearity is rather misleading. This assumption states that one can assess the impact of near-multicollinearity by holding the parameters of the logistic regression model constant, while examining the impact on their standard errors and t-ratios as the correlation (\rho) between the regressors increases. Using the Probabilistic Reduction approach, we derive the parameters (and related statisitics) of the logistic regression model and show that they are functions of \rho , indicating the ceteris paribus clause in the traditional account of near multicollinearity is unattainable. Monte carlo simulations in the paper confirm these findings. We also show that traditional near-multicollinearity diagnostics, such as the variance inflation factor and condition number can fail to detect near-multicollinearity. Overall, the paper finds that near-multicollinearity in the logistic model is highly variable and may not lead to the problems indicated by the traditional account. Therefore, unexpected, unreliable or unstable estimates and inferences should not be blamed on near-multicollinearity. Rather the modeler should return to economic theory or statistical respecification of their model to address these problems.
The third essay examines the correlations between income inequality and economic growth using a panel of income distribution data for 3,109 counties of the U.S. We examine the non-spatial dynamic correlations between county inequality and growth using a System GMM approach, and find significant negative relationships between changes in inequality in one period and growth in the subsequent period. We show that this finding is robust across different sample sizes. We further argue that because the space-specific time-invariant variables that affect economic growth and inequality can differ significantly across counties, failure to incorporate spatial effects into a model of growth and inequality may lead to biased results.We assume that dependence among counties only arises from the disturbance process, hence the estimation of a spatial error model. Our results indicate that the bias in the parameter for inequality amounts to about 2.66 percent, while that for initial income amounts to about 21.51 percent
Intrarailroad and Intermodal Competition Impacts on Railroad Wheat Rates
Get PDFThe issue addressed in this paper is more fully understanding the relationship of intrarailroad
competition and rail rates for wheat in the largest wheat producing states, which are Idaho, Kansas,
Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas, and Washington. The overall
objective of the study is to investigate railroad pricing behavior for wheat shipments. The rate model
was estimated with OLS in double-log specification utilizing the 2012 STB Confidential Waybill
sample and other data.
The research found that the distance from origin to destination and the total shipment weight
had the expected negative relationships with railroad wheat rates and were statistically significant.
The distance from origin to the nearest barge loading location had the expected positive relationship
to railroad wheat rates and was also significant. The weight of each covered hopper car and the
Herfindahl-Hirschman Index were both non-significant. However, the study used other data to
determine that intrarailroad competition for wheat shipments within states appears to be present in
most states
Revisiting the statistical specification of near-multicollinearity in the logistic regression model
Get PDFThis paper revisits the statistical specification of near-multicollinearity in the logistic regression model. We argue that the ceteris paribus clause, which assumes that the maximum likelihood estimator of β remains constant as the correlation ( ρ ) between the regressors increases, invoked under the traditional account of near-multicollinearity is rather misleading. We derive the parameters of the logistic regression model and show that they are functions of ρ , indicating that the ceteris paribus clause is unattainable. Monte Carlo simulations confirm these findings and further show that: coefficient estimates and related statistics fluctuate in a non-symmetric, non-monotonic way as | ρ |→1; that the impact of near-multicollinearity is centered on the estimates of β ; and that the impact on substantive inferences does not necessarily follow what the traditional account implies
Do Jet Fuel Price Movements Help Forecast Airline Fares and the Demand for Air Travel?
Get PDFCitation: Bebonchu, A., Bachmeier, L., & Williams C. (2018) Do Jet Fuel Price Movements Help Forecast Airline Fares and the Demand for Air Travel? Unpublished manuscript.The paper studies the predictive content of jet fuel prices for the U.S. aviation industry through in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting exercises. Our results suggest the possibility of limited improvements in the predictions of airline fares, and little evidence of predictability from jet fuel prices to measures of air travel demand
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Get PDFThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Variations on the Author
Get PDF“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis
Get PDFWe provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis
Intrarailroad and Intermodal Competition Impacts on Railroad Wheat Rates
Get PDFThe issue addressed in this paper is more fully understanding the relationship of intrarailroad competition and rail rates for wheat in the largest wheat producing states, which are Idaho, Kansas, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas, and Washington. The overall objective of the study is to investigate railroad pricing behavior for wheat shipments. The rate model was estimated with OLS in double-log specification utilizing the 2012 STB Confidential Waybill sample and other data.The research found that the distance from origin to destination and the total shipment weight had the expected negative relationships with railroad wheat rates and were statistically significant. The distance from origin to the nearest barge loading location had the expected positive relationship to railroad wheat rates and was also significant. The weight of each covered hopper car and the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index were both non-significant. However, the study used other data to determine that intrarailroad competition for wheat shipments within states appears to be present in most states
Dispelling the Myths Behind First-author Citation Counts
Get PDFWe conducted a full-scale evaluative citation analysis study of scholars in the XML research field to explore just how different from each other author rankings resulting from different citation counting methods actually are, and to demonstrate the capability of emerging data and tools on the Web in supporting more realistic citation counting methods. Our results contest some common arguments for the continued
use of first-author citation counts in the evaluation of scholars, such as high correlations between author rankings by first-author citation counts and other citation
counting methods, and high costs of using more realistic citation counting methods that are not well-supported by the ISI databases. It is argued that increasingly available digital full text research papers make it possible for citation analysis studies to go beyond what the ISI databases have directly supported and to employ more
sophisticated methods
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