1,720,992 research outputs found
Converging wages, diverging GRP: Directed technical change and endogenous growth. Empirical analysis of growth patterns across Kazakh regions
Get PDFThe paper analyzes unequal regional development in Kazakhstan. Applying the nonlinear least squares method in presence of spatial correlation we estimate the convergence rate of wages across Kazakh regions for the period 2003-2009. The estimated convergence rate is about 3% which is somewhat higher than estimates obtained for the USA and Europe. At the same time there is slight divergence in the GRP per capita. It is argued that convergence in wages which coincides with divergence in the per capita GRP is consistent with the endogenous growth model where profit maximizing firms choose the capital intensity of the technology. This implies that the inequality between regions will only exacerbate and the central government may wish to invest more in low-growth regions to alleviate disproportional development
Theory of job search. Unemployment-participation tradeoff and spatial search with asymmetric changes of the wage distribution
Get PDFThe dissertation consists of two main parts. The first part presents a search model with non-stationary reservation wages. In the model the reservation wage declines over time and at a certain point is equal to utility of non-participation, after which it is not optimal to search and workers withdraw from the labour market. Thus, the potential time an unemployed may spend looking for a job is the solution to a maximisation problem and is treated in the model not as a random variable but as a choice variable. The potential search time is known at any point in time and it does not depend on whether an unemployed worker finds a job or not, but is observed only if a worker fails to find employment.
It is shown that changes in the variables which reduce reservation wages also shorten the potential search time. This establishes a trade-off in the model. On the one hand, lower reservation wages reduce unemployment duration, but on the other hand, agents have shorter spells of active search and hence higher exit rate from unemployment into nonparticipation. The effect of these measures on total employment is ambiguous in the model. Simulations show that there are cases when reduction of the unemployment benefits substantially reduces the potential search time and thereby the job-finding chances when arrival rate is low.
The second part presents a stationary search model where unemployed workers may look for jobs in two locations and have an option to change work place retaining their place of residence, i.e. commute. Introduction of commuting possibility into the model produces difference in search
intensities and reservation wages in origin and destination, i.e. agent sets different reservation wages for the "local" and "distant" region. Moreover, I allow for arrival rate to be the function of search intensity and therefore unemployed workers receive job offers only in those regions where their search intensity is nonzero. In this setting the maximal acceptable travel distance is determined by the condition of nonzero search intensity. The model shows that the circle of possible commuting destinations is bounded and the maximum distance a worker is willing to commute is determined by exogenous factors in the model. The paper demonstrates that positive commuter flows to a region are conditional on the location of the region within a maximal acceptable commuting distance thereby substantiating the use of "hurdle" models for empirical analysis of commuting. Empirical results based on estimation of the zero-inflated negative binomial model support the theoretical results.
The search model necessitates that search intensity and reservation wage depend on dispersion of wages. Therefore, unlike most of the empirical models on commuting and migration I use dispersion parameters of the wage distribution as additional regressors in an econometric specification. It will be shown that if the wage distribution is not symmetric and variance in two tails of the wages distribution can change independently of one another, the implications of the search theory slightly change. Namely, the dispersion in the left tail of the wage distribution reduces reservation wage and search intensity, and the dispersion in the right tail increases reservation wage and search intensity
Market for Lemons in Academia: Adverse Selection with Dynamic Human Capital Formation and Policy Lock-in
No full textThis paper develops a dynamic theory of academic publishing in which evaluation metrics interact with researchers’ skill formation. Building on classic models of adverse selection and signaling, the analysis introduces endogenous human capital dynamics: researchers’ skills evolve as a function of their publication choices. Engagement with high-scrutiny journals enhances skills through learning-by-doing and referee feedback, while repeated publication in low-scrutiny outlets leads to skill depreciation.
The model shows that when governing bodies fail to differentiate between high- and low-scrutiny publication outlets—treating all indexed outputs as equivalent—researchers optimally exert minimal effort, triggering a decline in aggregate research skills. Crucially, this process generates hysteresis: even if evaluation policies are later corrected, accumulated skill depreciation may prevent the re-emergence of a separating equilibrium.
The theory is empirically motivated by a comparison of two research funding regimes in Kazakhstan—one imposing strict publication targets tied to indexed journals, and another without publication requirements—which generate markedly different publication patterns despite operating within the same academic environment.
The framework highlights a previously unexplored channel through which metric-based evaluation systems can cause persistent damage to research capacity. It delivers clear policy implications: delayed reforms are costly, stronger differentiation across publication outlets may be required to restore quality, and increasing the cost of low-scrutiny publication can be as important as raising rewards for high-quality output. While grounded in a specific institutional setting, the model provides a general framework for understanding durable quality failure in research systems reliant on targeted publication metrics
Social Norms, Status Spending and Household Debt: Evidence from Kyrgyzstan
Get PDFDevelopment economists have two key paradigms concerning poverty and financial markets. One considers the poor in the developing world as operating in imperfect markets. Another view is that the poor are subject to constraints. The policy prescriptions stemming from these views would be improving market access and redistribution. We consider one important constraint the poor are facing: social norms which require spending on ceremonial activities. This paper adds to the literature by providing empirical evidence that having access to loans makes households spend more on ceremonies and with the higher ceremonial spending they increase the likelihood of debt thus creating a vicious circle which might keep households in poverty. Thus policies which are aimed at either removing market frictions or providing benefits to the poor will not have a desired effect. These measures have to be combined with reforms aimed at changing the existing institutions
Economic and spatial determinants of interregional migration in Kazakhstan
Get PDFIn this paper we analyze economic and spatial determinants of interregional migration in Kazakhstan using quarterly panel data on region to region migration in 2008-2010. In line with traditional economic theory we find that migration is determined by economic factors, first of all income: People are more likely to leave regions where incomes are low and more likely to move to regions with a higher income level. As predicted by gravity arguments, mobility is larger between more populated regions. Furthermore, distance has a strong negative impact on migration, indicating high migration related costs and risks. Assuming that high migration costs are caused by poor infrastructure, investments in public and social infrastructure should facilitate regional income convergence in Kazakhstan and improve living standards in depressed regions
Determinants of internal migration in Kazakhstan
Get PDFIn this paper we analyze the determinants of interregional migration in Kazakhstan using quarterly panel data on region to region migration in 2008–2010. To the best of our
knowledge this is the first study on interregional population flows in Central Asia. We
find that migration is determined by economic factors, first of all income: People are
more likely to leave regions where incomes are low and more likely to move to regions
with a higher income level. Furthermore, mobility is larger between more populated regions. Distance has a strong negative impact on migration, indicating high migration
related costs and risks. Assuming that high migration costs are caused by poor infrastructure, investments in public and social infrastructure should facilitate regional income
convergence in Kazakhstan and improve living standards in depressed regions
Der Zugang von Arbeitnehmern in den Bezug von Arbeitslosengeld II
Get PDFDiese Arbeit untersucht die erwerbsfÄahig eingestuften Bezieher von Arbeitslosengeld II, die mindestens einmal Arbeitslosengeld II im dritten Quartal 2006 bezogen haben. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass 16% der Bezieher von Arbeitslosengeld II im dritten Quartal 2006 während des Zeitraums 2000 bis 2005 keine Arbeitslosenhilfe oder Arbeitslosengeld II bezogen. Weiterhin wird untersucht, inwieweit sich der Bezug von Arbeitslosengeld II für Personen, die vorher noch nie Arbeitslosenhilfe oder Arbeitslosengeld II bezogen haben, aus den Prozessdaten der Bundesagentur für Arbeit prognostizieren lässt. Unsere SchÄatzungen ergeben, dass mit den Prozessdaten die höchste prognostizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit neu in den Bezug von Arbeitslosengeld II Personengruppen überzugehen bei 49% liegt. Für den überwiegenden Teil der Stichprobe ergeben sich jedoch weit geringere prognostizierte Übergangswahrscheinlichkeiten. Gleichwohl identifiziert die Analyse wichtige Prädiktoren für den Zugang in Arbeitslosengeld II und damit werden deutliche Unterschiede zwischen verschiedenen Personengruppen im Hinblick auf die Herkunft der Zugänge erkennbar. Beispielsweise kann eine Teilstichprobe von 12% aller Personen ohne bisherigen Arbeitslosenhilfe{ oder Arbeitslosengeld{II{Bezug innerhalb des Zeitraums 2000 bis 2005 in administrativen Daten identifiziert werden, aus der ca. zwei Drittel aller Arbeitslosengeld{II{Zugänge von Männern und ca. 55% aller Arbeitslosengeld{II{Zugänge von Frauen entstammen. --Arbeitslosengeld II,Zugangsprozesse,Prozessdaten.
Der Zugang von Arbeitnehmern in den Bezug von Arbeitslosengeld II
Get PDFDiese Arbeit untersucht die erwerbsfähig eingestuften Bezieher von Arbeitslosengeld II, die mindestens einmal Arbeitslosengeld II im dritten Quartal 2006 bezogen haben. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass 16% der Bezieher von Arbeitslosengeld II im dritten Quartal 2006 während des Zeitraums 2000 bis 2005 keine Arbeitslosenhilfe oder Arbeitslosengeld II bezogen. Weiterhin wird untersucht, inwieweit sich der Bezug von Arbeitslosengeld II für Personen, die vorher noch nie Arbeitslosenhilfe oder Arbeitslosengeld II bezogen haben, aus den Prozessdaten der Bundesagentur für Arbeit prognostizieren lässt. Unsere Schätzungen ergeben, dass mit den Prozessdaten die höchste prognostizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit neu in den Bezug von Arbeitslosengeld II Personengruppen überzugehen bei 49% liegt. Für den überwiegenden Teil der Stichprobe ergeben sich jedoch weit geringere prognostizierte Übergangswahrscheinlichkeiten. Gleichwohl identifiziert die Analyse wichtige Prädiktoren für den Zugang in Arbeitslosengeld II und damit werden deutliche Unterschiede zwischen verschiedenen Personengruppen im Hinblick auf die Herkunft der Zugänge erkennbar. Beispielsweise kann eine Teilstichprobe von 12% aller Personen ohne bisherigen Arbeitslosenhilfe- oder Arbeitslosengeld-II-Bezug innerhalb des Zeitraums 2000 bis 2005 in administrativen Daten identifiziert werden, aus der ca. zwei Drittel aller Arbeitslosengeld-II-Zugänge von Männern und ca. 55% aller Arbeitslosengeld-II-Zugänge von Frauen entstammen
Economic and spatial determinants of interregional migration in Kazakhstan
No full textIn this paper we analyze economic and spatial determinants of interregional migration in Kazakhstan using quarterly panel data on region to region migration in 2008-2010. The main contribution of the paper relates to the ethnic divide in Kazakhstan, which is the home of a big ethnic Russian community, adding to the scarce literature on ethnic differences in migration patterns. Against this background we investigate whether the determinants of interregional mobility depend on ethnicity. In line with traditional economic theory we find that migration is determined by economic factors, first of all wage. As predicted by gravity arguments, mobility is larger between more populated regions and distance has a strong negative impact on migration, indicating high migration-related costs. Most likely caused by stronger family ties and kinship bonds, the deterring effect of distance is higher for ethnic Kazakhs. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved
Wage Inequality, Reservation Wages and Labor Market Participation
No full textThis article presents an analysis of the variation of gender-specific labor-market participation rates across regions. A search-theoretical model with intertemporal optimization behavior of agents suggests that a higher regional wage level fosters participation, whereas higher unemployment discourages workers. The authors extend the standard model by introducing two measures of dispersion, one for the spread below and one for the spread above the median. It is shown that wage dispersion in the lower tail of the distribution decreases the value of search and leads to lower participation rates, although the reverse is true for wage dispersion in the upper tail. These implications of the model are tested using spatial econometrics
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