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From data to action: a machine learning model to support tick-borne encephalitis surveillance and prevention in Europe
Get PDFBackground Tick borne encephalitis (TBE) is a severe zoonotic neurological infection caused by the TBE virus (member of the Flaviriridae family) and it is one of the most important tick-borne viral diseases in Europe and Asia. The infection is mostly acquired after a tick bite, but alimentary infection is also possible. Despite the availability of a vaccine, TBE incidence is increasing with the appearance of new foci of virus circulation in new endemic areas. The increase in TBE cases across Europe - from 2412 in 2012 to 3514 in 2022, has highlighted the need for predictive tools capable to identify areas where human TBE infections are likely to occur. In response, this study presents a novel spatio-temporal modelling framework that provides annual predictions of the occurrence of human TBE infections across Europe, at both regional and municipal levels. Methods We used data on confirmed and probable TBE cases provided by the European Surveillance System (TESSy, ECDC) to infer the distribution of TBE human cases at the regional (NUTS3) level during the period 2017-2022. We trained the model on data from countries with sufficient reporting, i.e., that provided the location of infection at the NUTS-3 level for at least 75% of cases notified during the selected period. To account for the natural hazard of viral circulation, we included variables related to temperature (derived from satellite images acquired by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and supplied by NASA with a resolution of 5.6 km), precipitation (derived from the ECMWF ERA5-Land dataset at 30 arc seconds resolution), land cover (extracted from the 2018 Corine Land Cover (CLC) data inventory (class “3.1”) with a resolution of 0.25x0.25 km) and ticks’ hosts presence (originally produced using random forest and boosted regression trees approaches). We also used indexes based on recorded intensities of human outdoor activity in forests (based on the OpenStreetMap database) and population density (obtained from WorldPop) as proxies of human exposure to tick bites. We identified the yearly probability of TBE occurrence using a spatio-temporal boosted regression tree modeling framework. Results Our results highlight a statistically significant rising trend in the probability of human TBE infections not only in north-western, but also in south-western European countries. Areas with the highest probability of human TBE infections are primarily located in central-eastern Europe, the Baltic states, and along the coastline of Nordic countries up to the Bothnian Bay. Such areas are characterised by the presence of key tick host species, forested areas, intense human recreational activity in forests, steep drops in late summer temperatures and high precipitation amounts during the driest months. The model showed good predictive performance, with a mean AUC of 0.85, sensitivity of 0.82, and specificity of 0.80 at the regional level, and a mean AUC of 0.82, sensitivity of 0.80, and specificity of 0.69 at the municipal level. Discussion With ongoing climate and land use changes, the burden of human TBE infections on European public health is likely to increase, as trends are already indicating. This underscores the need for predictive models that can help prioritize intervention efforts. Hence, the development of a modeling framework that predicts the probability of human TBE infections at the finest administrative scale based on easily accessible covariates, represents a step forward towards comprehensive TBE risk estimation in Europ
Diversity of bioactive compounds in microalgae: key classes and functional applications
Get PDFMicroalgae offer a sustainable and versatile source of bioactive compounds. Their rapid growth, efficient CO2 utilization, and adaptability make them a promising alternative to traditional production methods. Key compounds, such as proteins, polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs), polyphenols, phytosterols, pigments, and mycosporine-like amino acids (MAAs), hold significant commercial value and are widely utilized in food, nutraceuticals, cosmetics, and pharmaceuticals, driving innovation across multiple industries. Their antiviral and enzyme-producing capabilities further enhance industrial and medical applications. Additionally, microalgae-based biostimulants and plant elicitor peptides (PEPs) contribute to sustainable agriculture by enhancing plant growth and resilience to environmental stressors. The GRAS status of several species facilitates market integration, but challenges in scaling and cost reduction remain. Advances in biotechnology and metabolic engineering will optimize production, driving growth in the global microalgae industry. With increasing consumer demand for natural, eco-friendly products, microalgae will play a vital role in health, food security, and environmental sustainabilit
Exploration of beta diversity across altitude gradients in an Alpine region in Trentino using FOSS4G and a historical floristic archive
Get PDFIn the changing alpine mountain environment, beta diversity plays a crucial role in understanding ecosystem dynamics and guiding conservation efforts. This study wants to demonstrate the FOSS4G capabilities presenting a preliminary exploration of species turnover across environmental gradients in the Province of Trento, a highly biodiverse region in the northeastern Italian Alps, using a large database of vegetation surveys from the 1970s that was digitized and organized into a geodatabase using FOSS4G in the FORCING project. GRASS, QGIS, PostGIS, and R were used to process data from 517 linear transects, encompassing 190,761 species records. Beta diversity was assessed in relation to environmental factors such as altitude and slope, with statistical tests performed using Pearson correlations and Sørensen’s similarity coefficient. Variance partitioning was conducted via redundancy analysis (RDA) in R’s Vegan package. Results indicate that species richness and beta diversity increase with greater altitude and slope variation along transects, confirming that more heterogeneous environments support higher species turnover. Sørensen’s coefficient revealed that species similarity declines with altitude separation, particularly beyond 1,500 meters. Variance partitioning identified altitude range as the most influential factor, with combined effects from slope and elevation contributing significantly to beta diversity. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of FOSS4G software for spatial statistical analyses in biodiversity research, highlighting its capability to integrate numerical and geostatistical approaches. Future research will compare historical and contemporary floristic data, apply alternative statistical methods, and incorporate remote sensing for enhanced biodiversity assessment
Gyllotalpa cossyrensis Baccetti & Capra, 1978 microinsular endemism of the Lago di Venere in Pantelleria (Orthoptera Gryllotalpidae)
Get PDFEffect of resource abundance on woodland rodents' demography at latitudinal extremes in Europe
Get PDFClimate change effects on primary productivity are especially evident along altitudinal and latitudinal gradients. Some of the species with a fast reproductive cycle strategy and relying on primary productivity may rapidly respond to such changes with alterations to demographic parameters. However, how these bottom-up effects may emerge in systems with different population dynamics has not been elucidated. We aimed to assess the role of food availability on rodent demography in populations characterised by different dynamics, that is multiannual cycles in Northern European populations and mast-driven outbreaks in Southern European populations, both driven by intrinsic and extrinsic factors. We live-trapped woodland rodents at these latitudinal extremes in two study systems (Norway, Italy) while deploying control/treatment designs of food manipulation providing ad libitum trophic resource availability, albeit not reflecting the natural resource fluctuations. We applied a multistate open robust design model to estimate population patterns and survival rates while controlling for seasonal variation, intrinsic traits, and co-occurrence of sympatric species. Yellow-necked and wood mouse (Apodemus spp.) were sympatric with bank vole (Clethrionomys glareolus) in Italy, while only the latter was trapped in Norway. Food provisioning increased both survival and population size of bank vole in Norway, where temperatures are harsher and snow cover persists in winter. In milder Italian habitats, the wood mouse abundance was boosted by food availability, increasing also survival rates (but only in females), whereas the bank vole showed a decrease in both parameters across sexes. We speculate that overabundant food resources may trigger some forms of competition between sympatric wood mouse and bank vole, although other types of interactions, such as predation and parasitism, may also contribute. By manipulating food availability in two systems where rodents have different population dynamics, we showed how resource availability exerted bottom-up effects on rodent demography, especially in the context of climate change, although being mediated by other intrinsic and extrinsic factor
The Zanzemap project: artificial intelligence models and satellite data to forecast vector dynamics in Northern Italy
No full textThe project "ZanZeMap" aims to enhance public health in the Autonomous Province of Trento (Northern Italy) by developing user-friendly maps that indicate the risk of tick and mosquito presence and activity, addressing significant public health challenges posed by vector-borne diseases. Utilizing advanced artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning techniques, this initiative analyzes detailed climatic and environmental data to predict where and when these arthropods are most active. Key to this project is the integration of high-resolution climate data, including satellite observations, providing insights into temperature, humidity, and vegetation cover—critical factors for understanding vector habitats and behaviors. The project can forecast changes in mosquito and tick populations up to two weeks in advance under various climate scenarios, allowing for proactive vector management. Additionally, field-based vector monitoring will be incorporated to validate the model’s forecasts, enhancing the accuracy of vector activity assessments and enabling timely interventions. The resulting online maps will empower the local population and stakeholders by providing real-time information on vector phenology and activity, facilitating personal protective measures against bites such as using repellents and fostering a collaborative environment in public health initiatives. Ultimately, this project not only aims to improve local vector surveillance but also has the potential for application in diverse geographical contexts facing similar public health challenges exacerbated by climate change. By establishing a robust framework for ongoing data analysis and community involvement, the initiative seeks to enhance public health outcomes and quality of life in the Autonomous Province of Trento and the Alpine area in the futur
Preliminary study on the influence of the geographical origin and farming system on ‘Nero dei Nebrodi’ pig using chemical and isotopic fingerprinting
Get PDFIn this study, the geographical origin of longissimus dorsi meat from ’Nero dei Nebrodi’ pigs reared in two distinct regions of north-eastern Sicily was indagated by correlating chemical-nutritional parameters, stable isotope composition, fatty acid and sterol profiles, and mineral element content. Significant differences (p ≤ 0.05) be tween the ’Nebrodi group’ (NG) and the ’External Nebrodi group’ (ENG) were found for 51 over 80 variables. The δ2 H, δ18O, δ13C and δ15N of the defatted meat were statistically different (p<0.01) between NG and ENG animals, indicating a change in the composition of the diet and drinking water consumed. The results showed that the characteristic rich endemic vegetation of the Nebrodi influences not only the chemical-nutritional pa rameters of the meat but also its isotopic ratios, allowing for a geographical characterization required for the traceability of this peculiar product, aspiring to a protected designation of origi
Un supporto decisionale utile per il diradamento del melo
No full textA partire dal 2020 sono state condotte diverse sperimentazioni con lo scopo di verificare l’accuratezza delle informazioni fornite del modello previsionale BreviSmart® circa il corretto posizionamento del fitoregolatore diradante Brevis (metamitron) in base allo sviluppo dei frutticini ed alle condizioni metereologiche che ne influenzano l’azione. Il modello si è rivelato sempre più preciso nel corso degli anni, grazie agli aggiornamenti messi a punto ed ha consentito di migliorare le performance dell’intervento diradante e del ritorno a fiore l’anno successivo
Widespread distribution of chs-1 mutations associated with resistance to diflubenzuron larvicide in Culex pipiens across Italy, reaching virtual fixation in the Venetian lagoon
Get PDFControl interventions against mosquito larvae are the primary measure to reduce the adult abundance and risk of arbovirus outbreaks in Europe. One of the most commonly used larvicides in Italy is diflubenzuron (DFB), which targets chitin synthase 1 (chs-1), interrupting the normal development of larvae into adults. Recent studies identified high levels of DFB resistance in Culex pipiens populations from Emilia-Romagna (Italy) associated with I1043L/M/F mutations at position 1043 of the chs-1 gene. The aim of the present study was to assess the circulation of 1043 resistance alleles in Cx. pipiens populations across Italy, outside Emilia-Romagna, with a focus on the Veneto region. Overall, 1032 specimens were genotyped. The 1043L allele was found in all examined Italian regions (Trentino-Alto Adige 19–36%; Veneto 0–91%; Piemonte 11%; Liguria 28%; Lazio 0–8%; Puglia 5%). The highest frequencies (up to >90%) were observed in the Venetian lagoon, where 1043M was also detected (6–11%). Overall, the relatively low frequencies of 1043 mutations despite extensive and longstanding use of DFB in Italy suggest a high fitness cost worthy of further investigations, while their extremely high frequencies in coastal touristic sites point to these sites as the most relevant for resistance monitoring and larvicide rotatio
Alkaloid profile of Italian alpine milk
Get PDFThis study examines the alkaloid profiles in alpine milk. Alkaloids could pose a health concern but also prove interesting from a geographic traceability perspective. Over three consecutive days, 48 daily milk samples were collected from 16 lactating cows grazing on two alpine pastures in Northeast Italy, with 8 cows from each pasture. Simultaneously, alpine herbs selecting by the cows during grazing were collected using the hand-plucking technique. Additionally, 12 milk mass samples were obtained from an entire herd of 110 cows. Liquid chromatography coupled with high-resolution mass spectrometry was employed to analyze both herbage and milk samples, identifying 41 alkaloids with pure standards and putatively identifying another 116. The results revealed a transfer of 0.4% for pyrrolizidine alkaloids, 2.7% for indole alkaloids, and 12% for steroidal alkaloids from herbs to milk. A partial least squares-discriminant analysis model based on the alkaloid profiles achieved a correct reclassification of 67% of milk samples from cows grazing on the two distinct pastures. Despite the minimal transfer, which should be considered positive in terms of health, it opens the door to interesting studies on the use of alkaloids as traceability markers for mountain products. PRACTICAL APPLICATION: The study provides a novel perspective interaction between alpine grazing systems and milk composition. This research could be useful for enhancing mountain pasture products in terms of healthiness and can help prevent fraud on the declaration of origi