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Seismic Intelligence Tool: an extensive multipurpose software for seismic signal analysis
No full textVulcanologia (INGV) has started a technological transformation of its real-time seismic monitoring capabilities. This comprehensive restructuring initiative represents a pivotal moment in the Institute's commitment to advancing seismic research and enhancing public safety. At the heart of this transformation lies the development and deployment of the integrated system known as Caravel. Caravel stands as a testament to INGV's dedication to cutting-edge seismic monitoring technology and its mission to provide timely and accurate seismic information to researchers, emergency responders, and the general public. It represents a leap forward in real-time seismic monitoring, integrating state-of-the-art technologies and methodologies to detect, analyze, and disseminate seismic data with unprecedented efficiency and precision. This development reflects INGV's commitment to staying at the forefront of seismic research and hazard mitigation. This integrated system not only improves the accuracy of earthquake detection but also enhances our ability to rapidly assess the potential impact of seismic events, enabling more informed decisionmaking during emergency situations. Seismic Intelligence Tool (SIT) emerges as a software fork from one of Caravel's components previously known as PickFX. The reason behind this fork is to share with the scientific community a robust, multi-platform and freely accessible data analysis tool that adheres to current standards for representing seismic data while removing all INGV specific customizations from PickFX. The decision to fork the original software and release SIT underscores a commitment to democratizing access to advanced seismic analysis tools. By offering this resource at no cost, the scientific community gains access to a platform that is fully compatible with contemporary seismic data representation standards and that can become very powerful with time and cooperation. This endeavor not only promotes open access to critical seismic research tools but also facilitates collaboration and knowledge sharing among researchers, ultimately contributing to advancements in our understanding of seismic activity and its implications.PublishedJCR Journa
Combining 3‐D Deep Electrical Resistivity Tomography With Magnetic Surveys to Investigate Complex Tectonic Basins: A Case Study From the Central Apennines Seismic Belt (Italy)
No full textWe use an innovative geophysical approach to reconstruct the deep structure of Campo Felice, an important extensional basin in the centrai Apennines (ltaly) where active crustal extension is
accommodated by nonna! fauJts capable of generating earthquakes of magnitude Mw 6+. To this end, we combine 3-D Deep Electrical Resistivity Tomography with Unmanned Aerial Vehicle aeromagnetic survey. Before this study, the knowledge of the subsurface was limited to a small sector of the basin investigated by two seismic reflection profiles and shallow scientific drillings. Our resistivity model unravels for the first time a complex subsurface structure, due to two SW-dipping and left-stepping norma! faults (Mt CefaloneSerralunga and Mt Orsello), with antithetic and relay faults. Altogether, they favored the generation of two distinct sub-basins ~400--450 and ~250-300 m-deep, filled with alluvial, lacustrine and glacial deposits. Aeromagnetic data further constrain the extent and thickness of fine-grained infili sediments, while previous drillings and seismic reflection profiles are useful to constrain geologica! interpretation. We provide a model of basin evolution covering approximately the last million years, improving the knowledge of the Quatemary kinematics and structure of this sector of the chain. Furthermore, th.is cost-effective approach can be safely exported to similar tectonic contexts elsewhere.PublishedOST2 Deformazione e Hazard sismico e da maremotoOST3 Vicino alla fagliaJCR Journa
Global Ionospheric Scintillation Estimation Based on Phase Screen Modeling From One-Dimensional Satellite Data
No full textIonospheric scintillations, which usually manifest as sudden, rapid fluctuations in radio wave signal phase and amplitude, challenge the reliability of satellite communication and navigation. Based on the single phase screen assumption, this study uses the one-dimensional (1D) in-situ plasma density data of ESA's Swarm constellation data to develop a three-dimensional (3D) power spectrum of electron density perturbation and construct a model to estimate scintillations caused by small-scale ionospheric plasma density irregularities. By deriving the turbulence strength (C s) and calculating the amplitude scintillation index S 4 , the global distribution of ionospheric scintillation is derived. Scintillation from our model shows typical seasonal variations, with peaks during equinoxes at both high and low magnetic latitudes. For local time (LT) dependence, the scintillation at low magnetic latitudes peaks around 21:00 LT, while at high magnetic latitudes, the maximum occurrence appears around noon, with an asymmetry between the northern and southern hemispheres. In addition, positive correlations between scintillation occurrence and solar activity, as well as geomagnetic storms are observed, with higher magnetic latitudes more being affected by geomagnetic disturbances. These features of our model-estimated scintillations agree well with the occurrence of small-scale plasma density irregularities at different magnetic latitudes as reported by previous studies. Our study introduces a way to estimate the global coverage of ionospheric scintillation from in-situ satellite measurements, which cannot be achieved by the ground-based GNSS networks due to the lack of coverage in the ocean regions. Plain Language Summary This study looks at sudden changes in radio signal strength and phase as the radio wave propagates through the ionosphere, known as ionospheric scintillations. Using data from ESA's Swarm satellites, the research develops a model to estimate these scintillations caused by small disturbances in the ionosphere. The study finds that scintillations vary seasonally, with the most significant fluctuations occurring during equinoxes at both high and low magnetic latitudes. The timing of these scintillations also changes with local time: at low magnetic latitudes, they peak around 9 p.m., while at high magnetic latitudes, they are most intense around noon. The research also finds that scintillations are more frequent during periods of high solar activity and geomagnetic storms, with higher magnetic latitudes experiencing more disruptions. This new approach allows for a global view of ionospheric scintillations using satellite data, filling a gap left by ground-based GNSS networks that don't cover oceanic regions. • Scintillation is positively correlated with solar activity and geomagnetic storms, with high latitudes being more affectedPublishedJCR Journa
Eruption Column Modeling of Explosive Volcanism on Venus
No full textVolcanism on Venus has never been directly observed, but several measurements indicate
present‐day activity. Volcanism could potentially play a role in climatic processes on Venus, especially in the
sulfur cycle like on Earth. Observation of volcanic activity is the primary objective of future Venus spacecraft.
However, there are many unknowns regarding its Venusian characteristics, like the condition at the vent, the
volatile content and composition. Past modeling efforts have only studied explosive volcanic plume propagation
over a limited range of flow parameters at the vent and in an idealized Venus atmospheric configuration. We
propose to use the 1D FPLUME volcanic plume model in a realistic Venusian environment. In similar Venusian
conditions, the height of the plume is consistent with past modeling. The present study shows that explosive
volcanism would preferably reach 15 km of altitude. Under certain conditions, plumes are able to reach the
VenSpec‐H tropospheric altitude range of observations and even the 45 km cloud floor. For the first time, the
impact of wind was quantified, and the super‐rotating winds have a substantial impact by plume‐bending of
reducing the height of plumes. Contrary to the Earth, the atmospheric heat capacity depends greatly on
temperature, and will disadvantage lower plumes and allow larger plumes to propagate at higher altitudes. The
high latitude atmospheric environment, due to the thermal profile and weaker winds, is favorable to plumes
reaching higher altitudesPublishedJCR Journa
Forecasting the evolution of the current unrest of Campi Flegrei by defining anomalies through experts’ elicitation
No full textPublishedOSV1: Verso la previsione dei fenomeni vulcanici pericolosiJCR Journa
Modeling the 2023 Türkiye Earthquakes and Strain Accumulation Along the East Anatolian Fault Zone: Insights from InSAR, GNSS, and Small-Magnitude Seismicity, with Implications for the Seismic Potential at Rupture Terminations
No full textThe 6 February 2023 MW 7.8 and MW 7.6 earthquakes in southeastern Türkiye ruptured more than 400 km of the East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ), producing one of the most destructive seismic sequences in recent history. Here, we integrate InSAR data, a new GNSS velocity field, and small-magnitude earthquakes to investigate the coseismic deformation, rupture geometry, and interseismic strain accumulation along the EAFZ. Using elastic dislocation modeling with a variable-strike, multi-segment fault geometry, we constrain the slip distribution of the mainshocks, showing improved fits to the surface displacement compared to the planar fault model. The MW 7.8 event ruptured a number of fault segments over ~300 km, while the MW 7.6 event activated a more localized fault system with a peak slip exceeding 15 m. We also model two moderate events (MW 5.6 in 2020 and MW 5.3 in 2022) along the southwestern part of the Pütürge segment—an area not ruptured during the 2020 or 2023 sequences. GNSS-derived strain-rate and locking depth estimates reveal strong interseismic coupling and significant strain accumulation in this region, suggesting the potential for a future large earthquake (MW 6.6–7.1). Similarly, the Hatay region, at the southwestern termination of the 2023 rupture, shows a persistent strain accumulation and complex fault interactions involving the Dead Sea Fault and the Cyprus Arc. Our results demonstrate the importance of combining remote sensing and geodetic data to constrain fault kinematics, evaluate rupture segmentation, and assess the seismic hazard in tectonically active regions. Targeted monitoring at rupture terminations—such as the Pütürge and Hatay sectors—may be crucial for anticipating future large-magnitude earthquakes.PublishedJCR Journa
The impact of long-term seismic coupling on fault-based seismic hazard models: insights from the central Apennines (Italy)
No full textPublishedN/A or not JC
Deep Long Period Earthquakes Beneath Volcanoes of the French Massif Central
No full textThe recent installation of new broadband seismic stations in the French Massif Central (FMC) has resulted in the detection of a few "deep" earthquakes located near the crust-mantle boundary beneath volcanic regions. Analysis of the spectral content of the respective waveforms has shown that the spectra of these "deep" earthquakes are significantly depleted in high frequencies. Based on these observations of anomalous depth and spectral content, these earthquakes can be classified as Deep Long Period (DLP) events. This is a specific class of volcanic seismicity observed beneath many active volcanoes around the World. While the exact physical origin of this type of earthquakes is still debated, they are often considered as indicators of the presence of magma near the crust-mantle boundary. Therefore, observation of DLP earthquakes can bring new insights into understanding the state and the activity of the recent FMC volcanoes. Plain Language Summary The French Massif Central is known for its multiple volcanic edifices. Geological studies have shown that volcanic eruptions have affected this region over the last 65 million years. The latest eruption that formed the Pavin maar occurred 6,700 years ago and since then the Massif Central volcanic provinces remain dormant. The duration of this current period of volcanic quiescence will depend on possible reactivation of the magmatic reservoirs supposedly present in the crust and upper mantle. With recent improvement of the seismic observations in the region, we could detect several earthquakes of volcanomagmatic origin at the base of the crust beneath some volcanoes of the French Massif Central. Such deep seismo-volcanic activity is known in many volcanic regions around the World and is interpreted as resulting from the presence of active magma at depth. Therefore, the reported observations present evidence of ongoing deep magmatic activity beneath the French Massif Central.PublishedJCR Journa
Reconstructing Paleoearthquake History and Rupture Patterns From the Kumaun Region of Central Himalaya, India
No full textThe seismic history of the Kumaun-Garhwal region in the Central Himalaya has been a subject of ongoing debate, particularly regarding the extent of the surface-rupturing earthquakes, their magnitude, and impacts along the Himalayan Frontal Thrust (HFT)-a splay of the basal décollement-the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT). We report evidence of three surface-rupturing earthquakes based on detailed paleoseismic studies and river terrace analyses. Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) and Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (AMS) radiocarbon (14 C) dating suggest that Event I occurred between 1250 CE and 1419 CE. It ruptured the HFT across ∼300 km in the Kumaun-Garhwal Himalaya, with an estimated magnitude of Mw 8.6. Event II, the penultimate event, is bracketed between 1445 CE and 1623 CE and may correlate with the 1505 CE earthquake, which had an estimated magnitude of Mw 8.4 and a rupture length of ∼350 km. The Most Recent Event (MRE), dated between 1770 CE and 1945 CE, may correspond to the 1803 CE earthquake. We suggest that the MRE, although less intense, ruptured a ∼150 km segment of the HFT, with an estimated magnitude of Mw 7.8, and likely released residual strain from earlier seismic events. Geodetic fault dislocation modeling further suggests the presence of along-strike variations in MHT geometry, which could have played a significant role in hindering rupture propagation. Our findings shed new light to better assess future earthquake hazards in and around the Himalayan region. Plain Language Summary This study investigates the seismic history of the Kumaun-Garhwal Himalaya, focusing on three major surface-rupturing earthquakes. Through detailed analysis of paleoseismic trench exposures, mapping of uplifted fluvial terraces, and dating of sediments and charcoal samples using Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) and radiocarbon (14 C) techniques, we identified evidence for the occurrence of three significant events. The first event, dated between 1250 CE and 1419 CE with an estimated magnitude of Mw ∼ 8.6, rupturing a ∼300 km segment of the Himalayan Frontal Thrust (HFT). The second event, dated between 1445 CE and 1623 CE, aligns with the 1505 CE earthquake, rupturing a ∼350 km stretches of the HFT with an estimated magnitude of Mw 8.4. The most recent event, dated between 1770 CE and 1945 CE, corresponds to the 1803 CE earthquake, which released less energy but was still significant, affecting a 150 km segment of the HFT with an estimated magnitude of Mw 7.8. Our findings suggest that fault geometry played a role in limiting the spread of these ruptures, providing important insights into earthquake hazards in the region. This research emphasizes the need for further studies to better understand seismic hazard in the Himalayan region.PublishedOST3 Vicino alla fagliaOST2 Deformazione e Hazard sismico e da maremotoJCR Journa
DEMETRA-A Seismic Noise Survey at the Maccalube di Aragona Mud Volcanoes (Southern Italy): Results and Perspectives
No full textOn 22–23 April 2025, a seismic noise survey was conducted at the Maccalube di Aragona,
a mud volcano field located in Sicily (southern Italy), with the aim of characterizing the
background signal associated with vent activity and the shallow subsurface structure. The
experiment, named DEMETRA (DEnse MaccalubE TRomino Acquisition), was carried out
within the framework of the multidisciplinary INGV-PROMUD research project, which
aims to identify key indicators of mud volcano activity and potential precursors of paroxysmal events. Ambient seismic noise was recorded at 21 sites using a three-component,
24-bit digital tromograph. Measurements were conducted with a dense spatial sampling
scheme covering both vent areas and peripheral zones. Preliminary data analyses included
spectral estimates, computation of horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) curves and
evaluation of the polarization patterns. The HVSR curves do not display clear amplification
peaks but rather show deamplification at specific sites. The polarization patterns exhibit
spatial consistency across the vent areas. In addition, transient signals were identified in
the background noise at some sites; based on their spectral and polarization characteristics, these signals are possibly associated with degassing, mud emissions, or bubbling
phenomena. The dense spatial coverage of the DEMETRA experiment provides a valuable
dataset for investigating subsurface properties and dynamic processes in an active mud
volcano environment.PublishedJCR Journa