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    Simulation of climatological maps of F2-layer basic maximum usable frequency and corresponding skip distance over the European region

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    This paper presents a procedure to simulate climatological maps of the F2-layer basic Maximum Usable Frequency (MUF) and corresponding skip distance predicted for the current month and the next two months over the European area, extending in longitude from 9°W to 45°E and in latitude from 34°N to 65°N, with a 1° × 1° spatial resolution. The maps are centred on six different transmitting points: Rome (12.5°E, 41.9°N), Athens (23.7°E, 37.9°N), Paris (2.3°E, 48.8°N), Pruhonice (14.6°E, 50.0°N), Warsaw (21.1°E, 52.2°N), and Stockholm (18.1°E, 59.3°N). The procedure is based on the calculation of a discrete grid of MUF values through the Lockwood algorithm fed by ionospheric parameters provided by the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model. Specifically, IRI provides monthly median hourly values of the ordinary critical frequency of the E and F2 layers (foE and foF2, respectively), and the obliquity factor (M(3000)F2). The calculated MUF values are then elaborated by a mapping procedure, finally providing simulated MUF and corresponding skip distance long-term prediction maps with one-hour time resolution. These maps offer a climatological picture of the radio propagation conditions in the High Frequency (HF) band over the European sector and represent a helpful tool that can be used by HF broadcaster, civil aviation, civil protection, defence, and surveillance systems, to plan and manage HF radio communications under quiet ionospheric conditions.PublishedJCR Journa

    Unveiling "too-old" radiocarbon ages at Serapeo (Pozzuoli) enhances understanding of the present unrest crisis at Campi Flegrei caldera, Italy

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    The Campi Flegrei caldera, west of Naples, Italy, is currently experiencing volcanic unrest, a process that started 75 years ago. The magmatic origin of past uplift crises has been questioned by studies based on 14 C data from marine organisms, suggesting three rapid uplifts; only the last, in the fifteenth century, was followed by the Monte Nuovo eruption (1538 CE). New 14 C dating and water composition analyses from the thermal spring in the Roman Macellum of Pozzuoli (Serapeo) show that the two supposed non-eruptive medieval unrest phases are unreliable, because they are based on two-old ages due to absorption of deep 14 C-depleted CO 2 by marine fauna. The implication of this finding is that the current unrest has a high probability of being linked to the resumption of magma supply to the shallow plumbing system of the caldera, and that this process could result in a renewal of volcanic activity in the area.PublishedJCR Journa

    Probabilistic hazard analysis of the gas emission of Mefite d'Ansanto, southern Italy

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    The emission of gas species dangerous to human health and life is a widespread source of hazard in various natural contexts. These mainly include volcanic areas but also non-volcanic geological contexts. A notable example of the latter occurrence is the Mefite d'Ansanto area in the southern Apennines in Italy. Here, large emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2) occur at rates that make this the largest non-volcanic CO 2 gas emissions area in Italy and probably on Earth. Given the topography of the area, in certain meteorological conditions a cold-gas stream forms in the valleys surrounding the emission zone, which has proved to be potentially lethal to humans and animals in the past. In this study, we present a gas hazard modelling study that considers the main species, CO 2 , and the potential effect of another notable species, hydrogen sulfide (H 2 S). For these purposes, we used VolcanIc Gas dIspersion modeLling v1.3.7 (VIGIL), a tool that manages the workflow of gas dispersion simulations in both the dense-and dilute-gas regimes and is specifically optimised for probabilistic hazard applications. In its latest version, VIGIL can automatically detect the most appropriate regime to simulate based on the gas emission properties and meteorological conditions at the source. Results are discussed and presented in the form of maps of CO 2 and H 2 S concentration and persistence at various exceedance probabilities, which consider the gas emission rates and their possible ranges of variation defined in previous studies. The effect of seasonal variations is also presented and discussed.PublishedJCR Journa

    A revised landslide inventory of the Calabria Region (Italy)

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    The Calabria region is prone to widespread landslides due to its unique geological and climatic conditions. Landslide risk is crucial for spatial planning, making an updated inventory essential. A revised landslide inventory for Calabria (CaLaI) was created by processing previous inventories and new mapping, supported by local field surveys and A-InSAR Sentinel-1 data. The results were compiled in an atlas with four maps, featuring 16913 landslides, categorized as follows: 8081 slides, 5166 diffuse instability areas, 2065 complex landslides, 965 flows, 352 areas affected by erosion, 234 falls/topples, and 50 deep-seated gravitational slope deformations. Of the total, 9253 are active, and 760 are dormant/suspended. Additionally, a WebGIS platform was developed for quick visualization and continuous updating of the landslide inventor.PublishedJCR Journa

    Very fast canyon formation and evolution along active volcanic flanks: A case from Stromboli Island

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    Active insular volcanoes are generally characterized by their rapid morphological evolution, as a close interplay exists between eruptive activity and erosive-depositional processes in such volcanoes. The Sciara del Fuoco depression, a sector collapse scar on the NW flank of the Stromboli volcano (Italy), is considered a natural laboratory for studying the response of a volcanic slope to such a dynamic evolution. In this study, we report the very fast morphological evolution that affected the subaerial and submarine Sciara del Fuoco slope from May 2022 to May 2023, a period of time marked by the occurrence of two crater rim failures, pyroclastic density currents and multiple lava flows. The analysis of repeated topo-bathymetric surveys demonstrates that a narrow (100 m wide at maximum) and steep-sided canyon, tens of meters deep, formed in the central part of the Sciara del Fuoco. The canyon was mainly related to the erosive activity of the pyroclastic density currents, which led to the remobilization of (at least) 3.7 × 106 m3 volcanic material, mainly in the subaerial slope. The canyon was initially formed by retrogressive erosion upslope, starting from an initial submarine/coastal landslide. It then evolved through a progressive widening of its flanks through small-scale landslides. The study shows that landslide location, as well as the final canyon shape, were strongly controlled by the lithological limits of pre- vious lava flows, highlighting the importance of inherited morpho-stratigraphy and lateral heterogeneities in slope stability. Since its formation, the canyon has acted as a main conduit for lava flows and volcaniclastic materials supplied on their way to the sea. About 1 × 106 m3 of material filled the subaerial canyon floor through time, and another 1 × 106 m3 of slope accretion was estimated for the submarine part of the Sciara del Fuoco, down to 400 m below sea level. Comparing the volumes associated with slope erosion and accretion, it is evident that a large part of the remobilized material bypassed the Sciara del Fuoco shallow-water sector and was emplaced at greater depths. This study highlights the relevance of an integrated system for monitoring the submarine and subaerial morphological evolution of insular volcanic flanks, contributing to an improved geo- hazard assessment during eruptive crises.PublishedJCR Journa

    Earthquake clustering and structural modelling unravel volcano-tectonic complexity beneath Mount Etna

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    Active volcanoes are dynamic systems whose internal structure is key to assessing associated hazards. This study investigates the deep architecture of Mount Etna by integrating seismic data with crustal tectonic models. We analyse ~ 15,000 earthquakes (2002–2021) using a density-based clustering algorithm to identify seismogenic structures and their kinematics. Seismic activity correlates with eruptive periods, indicating that both deep and shallow structures respond to magmatic pressure and stress transfer. The results unveil a complex fault network that plays a crucial role in flank instability and stress redistribution, revealing a subsurface structural framework that differs significantly from its surface expression. A key finding concerns the eastern flank, which does not behave as a coherent sliding block but rather exhibits a multilayered deformation pattern controlled by inherited faults and pressure from the magmatic feeding system. This highlights the interplay between magmatic, tectonic, and gravitational processes. The approach provides a refined framework for understanding Etna’s dynamics and can be applied to other active volcanoes in complex tectonic settings.PublishedJCR Journa

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