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Job-to-job mobility and inflation
No full textPublished online: 17 July 2025The low rate of inflation observed in the United States over the past decade is hard to reconcile with traditional measures of labor market slack. We develop a theory-based indicator of interfirm-wage competition that can explain the missing inflation. Key to this result is a drop in the rate of on-the-job search, which lowers the intensity of interfirm-wage competition to retain or hire workers. We estimate the on-the-job search rate from aggregate labor-market flows and show that its recent drop is corroborated by survey data. During “the great resignation,” interfirm-wage competition rose, increasing inflation by around 1 percentage point in 2021
AI-generated expectations and market stability
No full textGenerative Artificial Intelligence (AI) is rapidly emerging as a new technology to form economic expectations, raising new concerns about market dynamics and stability. I develop a general-equilibrium experimental asset-pricing framework that enables systematic evaluation of the stabilizing implications of AI-generated expectations in the presence of shocks unrelated to fundamentals. Applying the framework to a set of AI models, I find that AI expectations induce price dynamics that are markedly more stable than human expectations in equivalent environments, yet systematically deviate from Rational Expectations. This stability proves robust to temporary price shocks in most settings, but I document cases in which it breaks down, depending on the combination of the AI model and its use. I introduce a simple indicator that summarizes the destabilizing tendency after shocks of each model– use combination. The framework can be applied to new AI models, alternative shocks, and endogenous adoption of AI forecasting technologies
The indispensable ally? : Japan's future in a contested Indo-Pacific
No full textPublished online: January 2026Japan now sits in the middle of an Indo-Pacific region that every major power is trying to shape. For decades the country lived under a pacifist constitution written after the Second World War and it depended on the United States for protection. Step by step Tokyo has turned itself into a player actively calculating its strategy. Observers therefore ask a plain question. Does Japan remain an ally that no one can do without, and if it does who needs it and on what terms? The label ‘indispensable’ sounds like praise for grown up statecraft, yet it also exposes weakness. It implies that a wider balance in Asia depends on Japan’s steadiness, reliability and also readiness to take charge. At the same time, it shows that Japan’s safety and weight still hinge on what outsiders expect, and on the limits built into the wider system
European, UN and WTO crises governance : can ordoliberalism survive authoritarian and neoliberal power politics?
No full textSince 2008, EU governance of the successive financial, monetary, immigration, health, environmental, security, energy and competitiveness crises cooperated with international (e.g. UN, WTO or NATO) governance institutions and remained committed to ‘strict observance of international law’. Beyond the EU, authoritarian power politics disrupts UN and WTO law. The global competitiveness of Europe and its digital and environmental regulations are challenged by ‘races to the bottom’. The Lisbon Treaty’s ‘ordoliberal principles’ for multilevel legal limitations of market failures (e.g. by EU competition, environmental and social regulations), governance failures (e.g. by protecting rule-of-law, monetary stability and sustainable development) and constitutional failures (e.g. by multilevel democratic governance institutions and judicial remedies protecting human and constitutional rights) entail high regulatory costs for protecting public goods. Economic neoliberalism, and non-market regulations in authoritarian countries with political power monopolies, often avoid such costs. This contribution discusses EU responses to neoliberal under-regulation (e.g. of environmental pollution inside the USA, US tech companies circumventing digital trade regulations), authoritarian market distortions (like subsidized Chinese exports, ‘weaponization’ of supply chains), ‘economic coercion’ (e.g. by illegal US tariff discrimination) and military aggression (e.g. from Russia) disregarding UN and WTO law. Europe’s loss of global competitiveness and the need for ‘de-risking’ external dependencies require external EU responses different from the internal EU responses to competitiveness and innovation deficits inside the common market. EU crises governance dynamically evolves depending on the limited EU governance powers and on delegation by EU member states of additional powers and financial resources
Differently educated US couples and their work-family arrangements, 1968–2023
No full textPublished online: 20 January 2026Objective This brief report examines how couples' education pairings relate to their work-family arrangements in the United States from 1968 to 2023, focusing on differently educated couples. Background The reversal of the gender gap in education has increased couples where women have more education than their male partners, with implications for how couples divide paid and unpaid labor; yet research on historical trends in work-family arrangements has often overlooked the gendered nature of educational resources within couples. Method Using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (1968–2023), we categorize couples into six work-family arrangements and analyze the changing associations between education pairings and work-family arrangements over time using multinomial logistic regression models. Results Work-family arrangements are stratified by gender and education. Hypogamous couples show a higher likelihood of her-second-shift and egalitarian arrangements with a declining probability of male-breadwinner arrangements. Hypergamous couples maintain the highest male-breadwinner probability and are underrepresented where women's labor market participation equals or exceeds men's. Hypogamous and hypergamous patterns appear across all educational levels but are most pronounced at completion thresholds, particularly college graduation. Among egalitarian and her-second-shift arrangements, educational gradients are stronger and more continuous across levels among hypogamous than hypergamous couples. Implications Educational resources operate distinctly by gender within couples, underscoring the importance of distinguishing between differently educated couples rather than using gender-neutral measures of couple-level education when studying work-family dynamics.This work was supported by H2020 European Research Council (865356) and European Research Council (101117327).This article was published Open Access with the support from the EUI Library through the CRUI - Wiley Transformative Agreement (2024-2027)
Philippines-Japan relations under the Marcos Jr. administration : re-adjustment, continuity and caution
No full textPublished online: January 2026President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. emphasised the critical role of Japan as one of the Philippines’ primary bilateral partners in different areas of co-operation, with defence engagement between Manila and Tokyo having intensified significantly amid China’s growing grey zone activities in the South China Sea. This policy brief examines Marcos Jr.’s foreign policy and Philippine-Japan relations through three key perspectives: first, the deepening partnership with Japan serves as a cornerstone in restarting Philippine’s special relationship with the United States and revitalising the “hub-and-spokes system” at bilateral, multilateral and minilateral level; second, as in the past, this administration views Japan as an indispensable actor in economic terms and a much-needed contributor to peace and stability in Mindanao; third, despite China’s constant coast guard presence in the Spratly islands, President Marcos Jr. seeks to avoid a breakdown in relations with Beijing, Philippines’ major trading partner and an even more increasingly influential military actor in Asia
Selling fashionable fabrics : the market for Lyonnais silks in 18th-century Italy
No full textDefence date: 06 December 2022Examining Board: Prof. Stéphane Van Damme, (European University Institute); Prof. Giorgio Riello, (European University Institute); Prof. Natacha Coquery, (Université Lumière Lyon-II, external supervisor); Prof. Lesley Miller, (University of Glasgow)This thesis explores the trade in and consumption of Lyonnais silks in the Italian peninsula in the 18th century. Questioning the reasons and mechanisms behind the success of these fabrics, the thesis resituates this trade in the context of the European silk production. If the fabrics manufactured in Lyon were indeed successful in Italy, this thesis argues that their success was however precarious and limited to the niche of fashionable, patterned silks for clothing. Although the Italian weaving centres lost their leadership following the rise of the Lyonnais manufacture in the late 17th-century, they managed to adapt and remain strong contestants. Due to this competition, the Lyonnais manufacture had to rely more than ever on its strategy of fashion changes to keep an advantage over its rivals and the preference of consumers. Indeed, with the continuous renewal of patterns, their fabrics became the embodiment of taste and refinement, encouraging consumers eager to display such characteristics to sport them. The use of fashion, however, brought significant challenges to the Lyonnais merchant manufacturers. The quick rhythm of pattern changes put this trade under a constant time pressure. The Lyonnais merchants had to rely on a large and diverse network to ensure the quick circulation of their silks in the Italian peninsula. Furthermore, the preference of consumers was fragile, and Lyon had to constantly adapt to their changing demand. To keep this market, the Lyonnais merchants played on the price/quality ratio and incorporated different production techniques. This thesis argues that by doing so, the Lyonnais silk manufacture actively participated in the multiplication of goods made available to a wider range of consumers which characterised the evolution in production and consumption of 18th-century Europe
(Dis)connecting people? : examining whether and when social media increases polarization
No full textDefence date: 13 May 2022Examining Board: Professor Klarita Gërxhani, (European University Institute (Supervisor) ; Professor Hanspeter Kriesi, (European University Institute) ; Professor Magdalena Wojcieszak, (University of California, Davis / University of Amsterdam) ; Professor Claes de Vreese, (University of Amsterdam)This thesis examines whether and when social media increases polarization. The first empirical chapter looks at the association between social media use and changes in polarization over time. Using data from nine waves of the British Election Study (2015-2019), it shows that self-reported exposure to political information on Facebook and Twitter is associated with increased polarization during each of the last three UK general elections. The second and third empirical chapters explore the conditions under which exposure to political information on social media increases polarization. Using data from two online experiments in the United Kingdom and Ireland, the second chapter shows that exposure to pro-attitudinal information on social media increases polarization, whereas exposure to counterattitudinal information on social media decreases polarization. Furthermore, it finds that the effects of pro- and counter-attitudinal information on polarization are not moderated by the information’s emotional tone. Finally, the third empirical chapter shows that people’s choice of what information to read on social media can have a polarizing effect. Using data from the online experiment in the United Kingdom, it finds that pro-attitudinal information increases polarization to the same extent when people are forced to read the information and when they can choose if they want to read it or not. In contrast, counter-attitudinal information decreases polarization significantly less when people can choose to read the information or not compared to when they are forced to read it. A growing list of political observers worry about the polarizing impact of social media. The thesis contributes to our understanding of social media’s impact on polarization by showing when social media is more likely to increase polarization and when it is less likely to do so
Humanitarians under attack
No full textDefence date: 06 September 2022Examining Board: Prof. Diego Gambetta, Collegio Carlo Alberto (EUI); Prof. Jeffrey Checkel, (European University Institute); Prof. Anita Gohdes, (Hertie School); Prof. Scott Gates, (University of Oslo/PRIO)Humanitarian organizations are increasingly confronted with violence against aid workers. Although most attacks take place in countries experiencing violent conflict and are perpetrated by armed groups, non-conflict countries are also affected. Civilians can also be among the perpetrators. Understanding the dynamics that lead to attacks can help aid organizations in their operational decision-making process and limit the risks that their staff is exposed to. The theoretical framework of this dissertation covers the phenomenon comprehensively and is not limited to armed conflicts like previous studies on this topic. In addition, I consider a variety of perpetrators including government forces, non-state armed actors, and civilians, by highlighting individual motives behind such attacks. The causes behind these motives are also connected to the strategies of aid organizations. These strategies relate to how aid organizations uphold humanitarian principles and how they are perceived by others. Humanitarians are often feared because they are seen as politically motivated actors who secretly want to help the enemy. I evaluate this novel framework in four empirical chapters using multiple methods. First, a cross-national analysis assesses the overall validity of the theoretical framework in a comparative manner. I find that while political dynamics can affect the safety of aid workers, some of the aid agencies’ strategies can weaken or enhance their effect. Two different case studies consider in further detail how aid workers were perceived as political tools of the government during an epidemic and how they are associated with peacekeepers. Next, a mixed-method case study examines the extent to which the strategies of aid organizations can explain violence against Ebola responders during the 10th Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Many attacks against the Ebola responders were perpetrated by ‘normal’ civilians and aimed at disrupting the response. Why would communities attack the very people who are trying to protect them from a disease? Using ‘explaining-outcome’ process tracing, I reconstruct key events that led to the violent resistance of the population. I find that, contrary to popular belief, a lack of aid localization alone was not the main driver. Rather, I argue that the large-scale violence was triggered when the population started to perceive Ebola as a political tool of the government. An interrupted time-series model then demonstrates that the exclusion of three regions from the presidential election due to Ebola resulted in a significant increase in attacks on Ebola responders. The two final empirical chapters show to what extent aid workers are also associated with international peacekeepers in the case of Mali. While the peacekeeping mission in Mali is the deadliest active mission, aid workers are not a prominent target. This is puzzling because humanitarians argue that peacekeeping missions impeded their security. However, when peacekeepers engage in humanitarian activities, the lines between military and humanitarian actors become blurred. This limits aid workers’ access to the population, which results in fewer attacks. I test this argument with novel data on peacekeeping stabilization projects in a difference-in-difference model with sliding spatio-temporal windows. I find that stabilization activities reduce humanitarian access on the ground in the short term. The chapter is followed by a qualitative analysis based on interviews with humanitarians which examines how aid workers are associated with peacekeepers. The qualitative interviews go a step beyond the theoretical framework by asking both sides how they deal with this association. In the humanitarian community, there is a common view that ‘all security is local’. This dissertation shows the limitations of the localization argument. The strategies of aid organizations alone do not have a significant impact on the safety of humanitarians. Rather, their security depends on the behavior or presence of other actors, such as governments or peacekeepers
Transatlantic rupture : legitimacy, integration and security
No full textPublished online: 31 March 2025Donald Trump complains that Europeans do not spend enough on defence, that the European Union trades unfairly with the United States, and that the EU was created to harm American interests. Historical context defuses these grievances. The United States fostered European integration after the Second World War and throughout the Cold War, encouraging Europe to intertwine with the US economically. Now trade between them constitutes just a fraction of shared economic activity. The United States initially accepted and then insisted on taking the lead in providing European security. By challenging these realities, the Trump administration has turned away from eight decades of US policy and violated the European trust on which that policy has rested. The EU will adapt, but European perceptions of the United States have fundamentally changed. This rupture in the transatlantic partnership is liable to hurt American prosperity and undermine American global leadership