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The marginal majority effect : when social influence produces lock-in
No full textPublished online: 18 February 2026People are influenced by the choices of others, a phenomenon observed across contexts in the social and behavioral sciences. Social influence can lock in an initial popularity advantage of an option over a higher quality alternative. Yet, several experiments designed to enable social influence have found that social systems self-correct rather than lock in. Here, we identify a behavioral phenomenon that makes inferior lock-in possible, which we call the “marginal majority effect”: a discontinuous increase in the choice probability of an option as its popularity exceeds that of a competing option. We demonstrate the existence of a marginal majority effect in several recent experiments and show that lock-in always occurs when the effect is large enough to offset the quality effect on choice but rarely otherwise. Our results reconcile conflicting past empirical evidence and connect a behavioral phenomenon to the possibility of social lock-in
The advocate general as an actor of change – or Consolidation – in EU competition law
No full textDefence date: 13 October 2022Examining Board : Prof. Urška Šadl, (EUI, Supervisor); Prof. Giorgio Monti, (EUI); Prof. Daniel Naurin, (University of Oslo); Prof. Jens-Uwe Franck, (University of Mannheim)What is the role of the Advocate General (the AG) in bringing about jurisprudential change? This thesis provides a comprehensive and systematic account of AG influence on doctrinal development in EU competition law. Empirical legal research has dedicated some attention to AG influence by studying how often and to what extent the European Court of Justice (the Court) follows her opinions. The main difficulty of these existing accounts lies in the precise determination of when the Court reached a certain conclusion at the behest of an AG and when it arrived there on its own. Contrary to conventional wisdom, the present thesis examines the impact the AG can have by illuminating her role within the Court – both as an initiator and driver of change. For this purpose, this thesis develops an institutionalist theory of jurisprudential change that fleshes out two distinct modes of change: disruptive and continuous change. These modes are associated with permissive conditions that arise from different combinations of contextual factors. Depending on how specific factors are combined, stronger or weaker incentives for either type of change emerge. This thesis combines quantitative methods with case study evidence to corroborate the hypotheses on which the proposed theory rests. Based on an original dataset containing 263 hand-coded observations, it uses statistical modelling to identify paradigmatic opinions in which the AG opted for change over consolidation. In line with the theory developed, it concludes that disruptive change is more likely in cases where the AG enjoys little discretion, but barriers to change are low. In turn, continuous change is more likely when the AG has a wide margin of discretion, but barriers to change are high. The thesis finds that it is the AG’s role as an actor of change that renders her presence distinct and indispensable for the Court.Chapter 4 ‘Substantive modernization in EU competition law I' of the PhD thesis draws upon an earlier version published as an article 'Judicial Review & Anticompetitive Agreements: An Overview of EU and National Case Law' (2022) in the journal ‘E-Competitions Bulletin’
Essays in financial economics
No full textDefence date: 25 October 2022Examining Board: Prof. Piero Gottardi, (Eropean University Institute and University of Essex, supervisor); Prof. Giacomo Calzolari, (European University Institute, co-supervisor); Prof. Martina Jasova, (Columbia University); Prof. Todd Keister, (Rutgers University)This dissertation consists of three independent chapters that each shed light on a particular aspect of the banking sector. The first chapter is joint work with Agostino Capponi and Joseph E. Stiglitz (both of Columbia University), and it is motivated by the fact that banks usually hold large amounts of domestic debt which makes them vulnerable to their own sovereign’s default risk. At the same time, governments often resort to costly bailouts when their banking sector is in trouble. We investigate how the network structure and the distribution of sovereign debt ownership within the banking sector jointly affect the optimal bailout policy under this “doom loop”. We argue that rescuing banks with high domestic sovereign exposure is optimal if these banks are sufficiently central, even though that requires larger bailout expenditures than rescuing otherwise identical low-exposure banks. Our model illustrates how the “doom loop” exacerbates the “too interconnected to fail” problem. The second chapter, written jointly with Melina Papoutsi (European Central Bank), studies potential side-effects of large exposure disclosure requirements for banks. Banks in the euro area must inform banking supervisors about exposures to individual counterparties that exceed 10% of the bank’s capital. Using a new granular dataset that combines banks’ loan and security exposures, we employ a Regression Discontinuity (RD) model to test whether banks pass on the cost of complying with the large exposures framework to borrowers above the threshold in the form of higher interest rates. We find no statistically significant evidence of bunching of exposures below the threshold, but we present preliminary evidence in support of a sizable interest rate premium for large exposures. Our results suggest that, ceteris paribus, when a firm becomes a large exposure for its bank, its interest rate increases by 6–8 basis points on average, which implies an increase in interest cost for the average loan of 3.5–4.5%. The third chapter investigates the nature of the constraints banks face in extending their balance sheet to originate loans. Many papers in the banking and finance literature (and even more so in macroeconomics) either postulate or empirically find a positive causal link between banks’ deposit and loan growth. A naive interpretation of this result is that deposit inflows increase the amount of funds available to a bank for lending purposes and therefore trigger additional lending. However, this interpretation is at odds with banks’ ability to create money-like liabilities at will. This paper argues that if an inflow of deposits triggers additional lending, it must be because it relaxes some previously binding constraint. Otherwise, the bank could just as well have increased lending in the absence of deposit inflows. In this paper, I empirically explore three possible channels that could explain the observed positive relation between deposit and loan growth: Relaxation of either (a) a dynamic leverage constraint, (b) a dynamic liquidity constraint, and (c) a “hot potato effect”.-- 1. Optimal Bailouts and the Doom Loop with a Financial Network
-- 2. Bank Behavior Around Large Exposure Thresholds
-- 3. What Constrains Bank Lending?
-- Bibliography
-- Appendices
-- A. Graphical Illustration and the Tax Capacity Function
-- B. Bailout Space: Comparative Statics
-- C. Proofs
-- D. Assumption on Spectral Radius
-- E. Algorithm to Find Equilibria with Optimal Bailouts
-- F. Alternative Bandwidths
-- G. Additional Material on Aggregate Loan and Deposit Growt
Three essays on the political consequences of different types of conflict experiences
No full textDefence date: 28 June 2022Examining Board: Professor Elias Dinas (European University Institute, EUI Supervisor); Professor Miriam Golden (European University Institute); Professor Laia Balcells (Georgetown University); Professor Arturas Rozenas (New York University)This dissertation tests how different conflict experiences impact political identities. The main argument is that community or collective experiences such as indiscriminate violence may raise ingroup identification and backfire on the perpetrator’s interest by increasing victims’ keenness to outgroup threat narratives. This is particularly the case when compared to atomizing conflict experiences such as selective repression, which relies on denunciations from neighbors and can deter social life. While a long-standing theoretical literature supports this argument, the main contribution of this dissertation is empirical. I put this argument to the test in three stand-alone articles employing a comparative approach. The first article discusses the effect of indiscriminate vis-a-vis selective fascist repression executed during the Spanish civil war in the Basque Country. Municipalities that received fascist airstrikes, an instance of indiscriminate repression, were more likely to support Basque nationalist parties after the democratic transition. Instead, selective repression based on denunciations reduced Basque nationalist votes. The second paper tests whether the selectiveness of individualized Francoist repression in Galicia shaped its political consequences. I find that a greater capacity to restrict repression to the most-wanted impelled an indoctrination effect on the regime by ensuring its monopoly over narratives. Fascist policies and post-authoritarian successor parties received more votes wherever Francoist repression focused on leftist civic leaders with high human capital. The third article, alternatively, explores the impact of a conflict resolution agreement concerning an international confrontation over the monopoly of symbolic capital. In joint work with Vicente Valentim and Elias Dinas, we look at the political consequences of the Prespa Agreement, the treaty solving the naming dispute between (henceforth) North Macedonia and Greece. Concessions made by the Greek prime minister on symbolic capital increased nationalism. The treaty boosted public expressions of national identity in Athens and, especially in Thessaloniki, where the increase of radical right-wing votes contributed to its permanence on the national parliament. This dissertation contributes to the literature on post-conflict political behaviors by adding a nuanced, local understanding of the nature of a conflict to predict its political consequences and mechanisms of transmission of this effect
Regime outcome thirty years after the end of socialism : an analysis of elites, civil society, and state structures in post-Yugoslav successor states
No full textDefence date: 02 March 2022Examining Board : Professor Dorothee Bohle (formerly EUI, University of Vienna); Professor Hanspeter Kriesi (European University Institute); Professor Florian Bieber (University of Graz); Professor Béla Greskovits (Central European University)This dissertation looks at the regime outcome in the Yugoslav successor states from 1990 to 2020. It examines how civil society, state structures, and the elite influence the trajectories of Croatia, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Slovenia after the end of socialism. First, I explore whether classes, an independent civil society, and independent state structures matter for democracy by conducting a cross-sectional time-series analysis on 13 post-communist countries. The findings reveal that an independent civil society and non-captured state structures are positively associated with democracy; in contrast, the working class seems irrelevant for the post-socialist democratisation process. Second, based on the results of the large N-analysis, case studies open the black box and examine the interaction between the state, civil society, and the elite. The qualitative analysis is based on extensive primary and secondary data collected through field research conducted in Croatia, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Slovenia over the 2018-2019 period. As the quantitative analysis does not incorporate the role of the elite, case studies reveal under which elite context agency mattered. The qualitative analysis also reveals the impact of the European Union on domestic conditions, paying special attention to timing and context. The study finds that no factor alone explains the occurrence of democracy. Democracy cannot be achieved without combining the following factors: an autonomous civil society, a non-captured state, and ruling elites willing to implement democratic reforms. In a similar vein, the analysis provides evidence that the only sufficient condition is non-captured state structures. State capacity, therefore, plays a central role in democratisation. Institutional reforms can therefore not be implemented without an independent bureaucracy. At the same time, EU conditionality can help to increase state capacity, especially when reform-willing elites are in power. EU conditionality can, however, also have unintended negative effects by fortifying illiberal governments. The other crucial variable, civil society, is not sufficient for democracy when considered alone. Interpreted this way, civil society organisations, trade unions or NGOs, need independent state structures and reform-willing elites that govern the country to lead to democracy. Lastly, the qualitative analysis shows that agency does play a role. Not for democracy, as for that one needs favourable structural conditions, but at least for the absence of autocratic regimes, the presence of reform-willing elites is crucial. Yet, the analysis also reveals agency limits. In the absence of autonomous civil society and autonomous state structures, elites have few possibilities to implement reforms and are likely to find themselves trapped in a never-ending limbo of hybrid regimes with chances and actual instances of democratic backsliding
The case of cash-pooling in European corporate group law : from general to concrete, practice-related regulation
No full textDefence date: 18 October 2022Examining Board: Professor Stefan Grundmann (European University Institute, Supervisor); Professor Jesús Alfaro Águila-Real (Universidad Autónoma de Madrid); Professor Mathias Siems (European University Institute); Professor Luca Enriques (Oxford University)The main contribution of this thesis is the study of the mechanisms and alternatives for regulation of the cash-pooling contract. Cash-pooling, or treasury centralization, is a well-established but still very understudied phenomenon in the arena of corporate groups, where group companies cooperate to fulfill the liquidity needs of each other. The interest of the phenomenon is that cash-pooling represents an alternative for the allocation of resources different than the market that is available only to group companies. Previous studies of the law of the corporate group have contemplated the rules that apply to the group phenomenon in broad terms, but have not addressed specific practices or arrangements. Attention to cash-pooling, therefore, adds to the literature on corporate groups, providing a more grounded view on how this sort of group relationship develops, and whether corporate and insolvency law are equipped to deal with the challenges that it poses. The thesis is divided into four chapters. In the first chapter, the current state of the discussion about corporate groups is addressed. Corporate groups are back on the agenda of the European Commission, but the lack of attention to specific group transactions such as cash-pooling and the loose proposals that are being made are hindering the way forward. In the second chapter, the efficiency and legal architecture of cash-pooling are considered. Cash-pooling can be an efficient contract because it allows the group to work as an organization while each of the group companies maintains their legal personality. This chapter aims at explaining the (to date) mostly understudied clauses of the contract, and showing how cash-pooling differs from any other organizational capital market. In the third and fourth chapters, cash-pooling will be studied through the lens of corporate law. The main challenge of the cash-pooling contract for corporate law is the conflict of interest the parent company incurs because it is on both sides of the transaction. This chapter aims at identifying this source of opportunism and makes a proposal for regulation in light of the specific features of the contract. Finally, the last chapter discusses the risk that the cash-pooling contract poses for creditors of subsidiary companies within insolvency. Creditors at subsidiary companies face the risk that the insolvency of other group companies will be transferred to their credit claims through the wrong execution of cash-pooling
Sex- and gender-disaggregated data - National Statistics Offices survey (FEMETRICS project)
No full text1 data file, 1 documentation fileThe dataset comprises responses to a survey administered to the National Statistics Offices of the European Union member states and Eurostat. The survey questions investigated the current state of collection, distribution, availability, and accessibility of sex- and gender-disaggregated data at the EU level.The FEMETRICS project has received funding via the EUI Widening Programme call 2024. The EUI Widening Europe Programme initiative, backed by contributions from the European Union and EUI Contracting States, is designed to strengthen internationalisation, competitiveness, and quality in research in Widening countries, and thus foster a more cohesive European Higher Education and Research area
Report on citizenship law : Cape Verde
No full textThis report discusses citizenship in Cape Verde. It explores the history of citizenship in this country, modes of acquisition and loss, and current debates and reform plans regarding citizenship policy.Research for the 2026 GLOBALCIT Reports has been supported by the European University Institute's Global Governance Programme and the British Academy Research Project CITMODES (co-directed by the EUI and the University of Edinburgh)
The World Economic Conference, Geneva, 1927: A structured relational dataset of delegates, bodies, and membership
No full text4 data file, 1 documentation fileThis dataset provides a relational, machine-readable transcription of delegates to the League of Nations World Economic Conference (Geneva), 4-23 May 1927. It includes (1) a table of delegates/persons, (2) a table of conference bodies (conference, committees, subcommittees and related units) with hierarchical links, and (3) a membership table connecting persons to bodies with role information. The dataset supports reproducible historical analysis and data visualisation of conference representation, appointment patterns, and committee participation.ECOINT is funded by the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement No 885285 ). Grant holder is Prof Glenda Sluga, EUI
The EU law of energy infrastructure planning and the multi-dimensional principle of integration
No full textPublished online: October 2025This article zooms in on an area of EU energy law which relates to a particularly complex and technical matter, i.e., energy infrastructure planning law, and offers its systematic overview through the prism of a multi-dimensional principle of integration. In such a way, the article allows bringing together and explaining the common logic, normative content and implementation issues pertaining to several discreet instruments of EU energy infrastructure planning such as Member State-level network development plans (NDPs), EU-wide ten-year network development plans (EU-TYNDPs) and the Union list of projects of common and mutual interest (PCI/PMI list). As part of this exercise, the principle of integration, its three dimensions and their various aspects are developed in an effort to provide a helpful analytical framework for assessing the current state of this body of law and its evolution