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Konjunkturelle Belebung in Deutschland: Strukturelle Probleme und US-Handelspolitik belasten
No full textDie Erwartung deutlich höherer Zollsätze hat im ersten Quartal 2025 einen Boom der US-Importe ausgelöst. Im Euro-raum bekam die gesamtwirtschaftliche Expansion dadurch einen kleinen Schub. Die Preisdynamik hat in den USA wie im Euroraum in den vergangenen Monaten weiter nachgelassen, auch wegen des Rückgangs des Erdölpreises. In bei-den Wirtschaftsräumen dürften die Leitzinsen im Jahresverlauf weiter gesenkt werden. Dagegen belastet die Finanz-politik in den USA die Konjunktur in diesem und im nächsten Jahr spürbar. Im Euroraum ist die Finanzpolitik in etwa neutral ausgerichtet. In der zweiten Jahreshälfte 2025 wird der Welthandel aufgrund der Zollerhöhungen in den USA wohl deutlich zurückgehen. Unter der in dieser Prognose getroffenen Annahme, dass die Handelskonflikte nicht es-kalieren, kommt es aber zu keiner Rezession. Alles in allem steigt die Weltproduktion nach vorliegender Prognose in den Jahren 2025 und 2026 um jeweils 2,3%. Für die deutsche Wirtschaft gibt es mehr und mehr Anzeichen für eine konjunkturelle Erholung. So hellen sich die Geschäftsaussichten der Unternehmen seit Jahresanfang langsam auf, und die Produktion hat im ersten Quartal 2025 um 0,4% expandiert. Dass die Exporte um 3,2% zunahmen, liegt allerdings zu einem Gutteil an der vorübergehend höheren Nachfrage aus den USA. Neben den Exporten expandierte auch der private Konsum das erste Mal seit länge-rer Zeit wieder deutlich. Die privaten Ausrüstungsinvestitionen sind dagegen gesunken, wie sie es im Trend schon seit zwei Jahren tun. Nach wie vor belasten strukturelle Probleme die deutsche Wirtschaft (Demografie, Energie-wende, Strukturwandel in China). Dabei stützt die geldpolitische Lockerung durch die Europäische Zentralbank die Konjunktur, insbesondere über günstigere Finanzierungskonditionen für die Immobilienwirtschaft. Im zweiten und vor allem im dritten Quartal dürfte es zu einem Rückschlag für den deutschen Export kommen. Die konjunkturelle Belebung wird dadurch deutlich gedämpft, aber nicht abgewürgt. Die finanzpolitische Wende dürfte sich erst ab dem Jahr 2026 spürbar in der Produktion niederschlagen
Towards Sustainability of AI – Identifying Design Patterns for Sustainable Machine Learning Development
No full textAs artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) advance, concerns about their sustainability impact grow. The emerging field "Sustainability of AI" addresses this issue, with papers exploring distinct aspects of ML’s sustainability. However, it lacks a comprehensive approach that considers all ML development phases, treats sustainability holistically, and incorporates practitioner feedback. In response, we developed the sustainable ML design pattern matrix (SML-DPM) consisting of 35 design patterns grounded in justificatory knowledge from research, refined with naturalistic insights from expert interviews and validated in three real-world case studies using a web-based instantiation. The design patterns are structured along a four-phased ML development process, the sustainability dimensions of environmental, social, and governance (ESG), and allocated to five ML stakeholder groups. It represents the first artifact to enhance each ML development phase along each ESG dimension. The SML-DPM fuels advancement by aggregating distinct research, laying the groundwork for future investigations, and providing a roadmap for sustainable ML development
Why do firms fail? A new view on bankruptcy from the angle of top management team heterogeneity
Get PDFAvoiding bankruptcy is a crucial task for any firm’s top management team (TMT), and reasons for the failure to accomplish it have long been studied. While financial metrics can predict near-term bankruptcy, governance characteristics increase precision in the long term. With TMT heterogeneity, we introduce a powerful predictor for the critical time frame in between. Grounded in upper echelons theory, we argue that TMT age heterogeneity increases while heterogeneity in TMT pay and TMT functional backgrounds decreases the bankruptcy probability. We test our hypotheses using a unique dataset of large, public U.S. firms, about half of which filed for bankruptcy between 2001 and 2020. Our results support our research model and show how TMT heterogeneity significantly predicts bankruptcy. We contribute to both bankruptcy and strategic management research by underscoring the importance of TMT heterogeneity as a level of analysis when predicting bankruptcy and add to the ongoing discussion on the impact of TMT pay differences on firm performance. Additionally, we offer valuable insights to practitioners navigating their firms in times of crisis and to regulators shaping the insolvency statutes of the future
Enhancing OCR in historical documents with complex layouts through machine learning
No full textThis paper explores the challenge of processing and extracting information from large quantities of printed serial sources from the 19th century, which have been largely untapped due to the inadequacies of existing extraction techniques. We focus on the Habsburg Central Europe’s Hof- und Staatsschematismus , a comprehensive record published between 1702 and 1918 that documents the Habsburg civil service’s hierarchy and the evolution of its central administration over two centuries. Our approach sees the significant investment into machine learning-driven layout detection prior to the OCR-process. We generated synthetic data mimicking the Hof- und Staatsschematismus style for initial training of a Faster R-CNN model, followed by fine-tuning the model with a smaller dataset of manually annotated historical documents. Subsequently, we optimised Tesseract-OCR for our document style to enhance the combined structure extraction and OCR process. Our evaluation demonstrates significant improvements in OCR performance metrics (WER and CER), with the combined structure detection and fine-tuned OCR process showing a decrease in error rates of 15.68 percentage points for CER and 19.95 percentage points for WER. These findings underscore the potential of ML techniques in facilitating the extraction and analysis of historical documents
Field and farm-level data on agricultural land use for the European Union
No full textWe present field-level land-use data from the Integrated Administration and Control System (IACS), featuring extended thematic details on farm-level indicators and organic cultivation. The data cover 19 of 27 EU member states, with annual time series that extend up to 17 years in some member states. The IACS data are invaluable for analysing land-use changes and farm-level characteristics with fine spatial, thematic, and temporal details. We provide an overview of the data sources, outline the pre-processing and harmonisation workflow and provide maps that exemplify the coverage and potential analyses. The data inventory constitutes a living document to which we will add additional data should these become available
Estado digital: Para entender o estado como plataforma
No full textIn the context of the digital transformation of the state, this Discussion Paper aims to analyze the literature on the "Government as a platform" (GaaP). A common point in this bibliography is the reference to Tim O'Reilly's 2011 essay, which proposed lessons that the public sector could learn from the experiences of digital platform companies. To this end, a semi-systematic approach to the literature review was adopted, with searches using specific terms and Boolean operators in the Web of Science databases (including SciELO) and Cairn.info. The search resulted in 67 references, of which 33 directly address GaaP. The analysis of this literature revealed a concerning trend toward the naturalization of the logic of large digital platforms, suggesting that the concept of GaaP is linked to an agenda of privatizing public services and policies, marked by the adoption of digital products and services by the public sector. The literature also highlights the central role of digital data from public services and policies in this transformation, while discussing little about the ownership regime, development, and use of the technologies that give material form to the GaaP. A rhetoric focused on reducing the state and fiscal austerity is evident, and social and citizen participation in the formulation and delivery of public services is often confused with the dynamics of data extraction. As a final consideration, we suggest future research agendas to deepen the debate on the concept of GaaP and digital transformation
China's Arctic turn: Reasons, developments, perspectives
No full textApart from several infrastructure projects which ultimately failed, and a surprise visit by the icebreaker Xuelong off the Greenlandic capital, Nuuk, the People's Republic of China has long maintained a cautious and reserved presence in the Arctic in the shadow of Russia and its fleet of icebreakers. But in July and August 2024, three icebreakers - Xuelong 2, Ji Di and Zhong Shan Da Xue Ji Di - made China's growing presence felt in the Arctic for the first time ever. Beijing is thus signalling more ambitious intentions, and the construction of a heavy icebreaker could enable China to establish a permanent presence in the Arctic Ocean. This development reached a peculiar climax in October 2024, when the Russian state news agency RIA Novosti ran the headline: "The Arctic is becoming Chinese." What are the reasons and implications of China's Arctic turn
Digitale Transformation und Well-being in unterschiedlichen Lebensphasen
No full textDie Einflüsse der digitalen Transformation (DT) haben Veränderungen in vielen Aspekten der Arbeit ausgelöst, was zu veränderten Anforderungen, nicht nur an die Fähigkeiten und Leistungen von Mitarbeiter*innen führt, sondern insbesondere deren Wohlbefinden (Well-being) beeinflusst. Ein positives Wohlbefinden ist wiederum Schlüssel zu einer erfolgreichen digitalen Transformation. Dieser Artikel zeigt auf, wie sich die DT insbesondere auf die Motivation im Hinblick auf psychologische Grundbedürfnisse gemäß der Selbstbestimmungstheorie von Mitarbeiter*innen in verschiedenen Lebensphasen und somit auf das Well-being auswirkt. Hierzu wurden Fokusgruppen mit Expert*innen aus dem Handwerk befragt. Im Vergleich der in dieser Studie betrachteten Bedürfnisse (Autonomie, Verbundenheit, Kompetenz und physische Gesundheit) wird die Notwendigkeit einer digitalen Kompetenz deutlich und als wesentlicher Erfolgsfaktor für das Well-being identifiziert. Die Ergebnisse der Studie zeigen weiterhin, dass die DT sowohl positive als auch negative Auswirkungen auf psychologische Grundbedürfnisse hat, allerdings je nach Lebensphase und Arbeitsumfeld unterschiedlich wahrgenommen wird. So wurden beispielsweise im Handwerk positive Einflüsse auf das digitale Kompetenzbedürfnis von jungen Mitarbeiter*innen deutlich, die bei älteren Generationen als stresserzeugende Anforderungen wahrgenommen werden und sich langfristig negativ auf die physische Gesundheit auswirken können. Dieser Artikel bietet Impulse für die weitere Forschung im Kontext der Auswirkungen der DT sowie Implikationen für die erfolgreiche Umsetzung der DT in der Praxis.The recent impetus for digital transformation has triggered changes in many aspects of work, resulting in varied requirements not only regrading workers’ skills and performance, but also affects workers’ well-being. In return, positive workers’ well-being is the key for the success of companies’ digital transformation. This paper refers to the self-determination theory and shows how digital transformation particularly affects workers’ motivation in terms of basic psychological needs in different stages of their life. For this purpose, focus groups with experts from the craft sector were surveyed. By comparing the needs in this study (autonomy, relatedness, competence and physical health), the importance for digital competence becomes clear and is identified as a key success factor for well-being. Our findings illustrate that DT has both positive and negative effects on psychological basic needs. However, these effects are perceived differently depending on the life phase and work environment of workers. For example, young craft workers welcome the increased demand for more digital competences. In contrast, older workers see increased demands for digital competencies as a threat and induce stress, which eventually have long-term negative effects on physical health. This article provides insights for further research on the impacts of DT and implications for the successful implementation of DT in practice
Generative KI: Ein Wachstumstrend
No full textSeit der Veröffentlichung von ChatGPT Ende 2022 sind zahlreiche Anwendungen der sogenannten generativen KI entstanden. Diese auf großen Sprachmodellen basierenden Chatbots werden immer häufiger genutzt. Erkennbar ist dies unter anderem an der zunehmenden Anzahl an Stellenanzeigen, in denen deutsche Unternehmen Kompetenzen im Umgang mit generativer KI fordern
Social Gaps, Perceived Inequality and Protests
No full textLatent feelings of economic vulnerability and social stagnation may have catalyzed the unprecedented uprisings that shook Latin America and other parts of the world in 2018-2019. We document this process in the context of Chile, leveraging survey data on protest participation and its potential determinants. Specifically, we construct a "social gap" index, measuring the disconnect between objective and perceived social status. Our findings suggest that this social gap predicts protest involvement beyond factors such as perceived living costs, the subjective value of public services, peer influence, or political demands. Notably, it complements broader feelings of anger toward inequalities in explaining protests