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Forecasting Recessions in Germany with Feature Selection and Machine Learning
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This study evaluates whether feature selection improves machine learning forecasts of German business cycles. Using a high-dimensional dataset with 73 indicators, primarily from the OECD Main Economic Indicator Database, covering a period from 1973 to 2023, Sequential Floating Forward Selection (SFFS) is applied to build compact, explainable, and performant models. The focus is on regularized regression models (LASSO, Ridge, Elastic Net) and tree-based classification models (Random Forest, Gradient Boosting and AdaBoost). SFFS yields models with up to eleven indicators that outperform a standard term-spread probit model—especially during Quantitative Easing. Regularized regressions provide the most accurate recession signals. Feature selection increased the forecasting power of tree-based models, while marginally reducing the performance of regression models. The findings contribute to the ongoing discussion on the use of machine learning in economic forecasting, especially in the context of limited and imbalanced data.C52;C55;E32;E3
Reconsidering the costs of commitment: Learning and state acceptance of the UN human rights treaties’ individual complaint procedures
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How do states react to adverse decisions resulting from human rights treaties’ individual complaint procedures? While recent scholarship has shown particular interest in states’ reactions to international court judgments, research on state behavior vis-à-vis an increasing treaty body output remains scarce. I argue that states generally want to avoid the costs implied by adverse decisions, or ‘views’. Rising numbers of rebukes lead them to update their beliefs about the costliness of complaint procedure acceptance in a Bayesian manner. As a result, states become less inclined to accept further petition mechanisms under different human rights treaties. I test these assumptions on an original dataset containing information on individual complaint procedure acceptance and the distribution of 1320 views for a total number of 169 countries ranging from the year 1965 to 2018. Results from Cox proportional hazards regressions suggest that both the number of views against neighboring states and against the examined state itself decrease the likelihood of acceptance of most of the six individual complaint procedures under observation. I also find evidence that this effect is exacerbated if states are more likely to actually bear the costs of implementation. Findings indicate that the omission of further commitment can be a negative spillover of the treaty bodies’ quasi-judicial output
The EU, China, and the future of climate finance
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Relations between the European Union (EU) and the People’s Republic of China (China) face substantial strains. Cooperation in the fight against global warming seems to be one of the few areas where a strategic partnership might still be possible. Within the field of climate change governance, the issue of climate finance has gained substantial significance and was at the core of COP29. Here, important developments indicate a complex scenario for future collaboration: the EU’s hopes to preserve climate change as an “island of opportunity” for collaboration meet a Chinese revision of climate policy that seeks to raise it to a key foreign policy issue—thus linking it with core interests. At the technical level, despite several MoUs and declarations of intended cooperation, in climate finance, China and the EU have not agreed on a Chinese contribution to the Loss and Damage Fund at COP28. Finally, regarding the New Collective Quantified Goal on Finance, the EU and China are aligned on the importance of an updated goal but differ on how climate finance obligations should be structured. In the paper, we explore the current state of affairs in EU-China cooperation regarding climate finance (governance). We highlight the recent revision of China’s foreign policy approach and trace the positioning of both sides toward and at COP29. The paper identifies where the EU and China are diverging and converging in their approaches to climate finance and indicates future policy options
Repayment under flexible loan contracts: evidence based on high‐frequency data
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We study repayment in the context of an alternative financial product that enables the purchase of a large asset—a solar panel home system—while offering complete repayment flexibility. Using a large administrative dataset on daily repayment of 38,400 borrowers in Tanzania over 5.5 years, we perform unsupervised pattern analysis to classify repayment behaviour. We show that borrowers with fluctuating incomes make more use of the loan's flexibility, and adjust their repayment to cash flow. In further analysis, we show that in particular, farmers use the flexibility provided by the loan contract to adjust to seasonal fluctuations and to deal with unexpected shocks. Our results indicate that low‐income households can finance large assets through innovative financial approaches that allow aligning payments to financial circumstances
The Wealth of Nations: Origins of Prosperity and Seeds of Inequality
No full textWhat ignited humanity's momentous ascent from millennia of stagnation to an era of sustained economic growth? And what are the roots of the vast disparities in the wealth of nations? These enduring mysteries, which have preoccupied scholars across generations, lie at the core of Unified Growth Theory. This encompassing framework captures the evolution of societies over the entire course of human history and identifies the universal wheels of change that governed humanity's long journey, propelled the growth process, and shaped inequality across the globe. The theory uncovers the forces underlying the dramatic transformation in living standards over the past two centuries, emerging from an economic ice age of near stagnation, while highlighting the enduring historical roots of the immense divergence in the prosperity of nations. It suggests that forces set in motion in the distant past played a pivotal role in shaping development across the globe and remain essential for the design of effective policies that foster economic progress and mitigate inequality in the wealth of nations
AI regulation and policy pathways in China, European Union, and the USA
No full textWith the emergence of generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools (including large language models) in the popular discourse, the debate on managing, governing, and regulating the impacts of AI on society has grown considerably. In part due to the unique breadth of AI's impacts and its varying implications for the various strata of human workforce, and society, approaches to AI regulation appear to diverge significantly. This combination of scale and potential disruption has caught the attention of regulators worldwide, with China, European Union (EU), and the United States of America (USA) as the forerunners in the regulatory activity. The aim of this paper is to examine the current state-of-play vis-à-vis regulatory approaches to AI and related technologies in China, EU, and the USA. The paper draws on documentary sources and peer-reviewed literature to examine the political and market dynamics at work, the policy pathways, including the processes, the decision-making approaches, and the intended outcomes of these regulatory and legislative approaches. The findings suggest that China's state-directed approach is aimed at integration of technical oversight, social harmony, and the growth of its sovereign AI capabilities. The EU's approach is a comprehensive, risk-based regulatory framework for AI building on its strengths in exporting technology-related rule-making. The USA’s approach to AI regulation is decentralised with multi-agency legislation targeting specific AI applications and outcomes while retaining its advantages in AI innovation. The findings are expected to be of interest to academics, researchers, and key stakeholders from government, industry, and the third sector actively engaged in regulation and governance of AI.Revised version: January 202
On the Divergence of Function and Service: Knowledge and Technology Transfer Understood as the Service Processes of the Science System
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The idea here is to derive properties and categories of knowledge and technology transfer from a theoretical model of the science system, for which we draw on the work of the German sociologists Niklas Luhmann and Rudolf Stichweh. The aim is to determine the characteristics of transfer that are already defined by the autopoiesis of the science system. We will explain why transfer can be understood as the collection of input–output processes across the boundaries of the academic system and can be associated with the science system’s exchange of services with other subsystems of society, but is independent of the fulfilment of the science system’s function. With this distinction between “function” and “service,” we can address two apparent contradictions: How is the paradigm of openness that determines transfer compatible with the closedness that underlies the autopoiesis of science, and how can transfer across system boundaries and multipolar innovation networks be brought together conceptually? This paper distinguishes between three process classes of transfer. While the first two process classes precede or follow a real research process (inside-out and outside-in), the third process class is of the form out → in → out and follows the scheme that a solution is sought for a specific problem that serves external purposes. Then, ten different categories of knowledge and technology transfer are compiled and discussed for the three process classes derived. They show how complex transfer structures can be constructed from elementary processes without having to sacrifice the idea of a system boundary, which is indispensable for the functioning of science, which casts doubt on the assertion often made in the literature that this boundary is dissolving (“blurring of boundaries”). In the end, we also address other important practical and theoretical implications of these considerations
Beyond disintermediation: A multiple case study of emerging intermediary roles in blockchain applications
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Since the introduction of blockchain technology, both academic and practical discourse has explored its impact on intermediation. Early research emphasized the notion of disintermediation, removing traditional intermediaries through decentralized trust and automated coordination. Yet, more recent studies highlight that blockchain systems often give rise to new forms of intermediation. These roles may not resemble legacy intermediaries but nonetheless fulfil essential functions such as compliance, governance, and technical integration. Based on a multiple case study, we investigate how and why such re-intermediation occurs in blockchain ecosystems. Our analysis identifies three recurring drivers, system integrity and resilience, boundary and interface management, and governance efficiency, that structurally necessitate new coordination layers. This study thereby contributes to electronic markets and blockchain literature by offering a refined conceptualization of intermediation dynamics in distributed systems.L1;M0;O3
Let’s join forces: boundary resources as enablers of value co-creation in e-commerce ecosystems
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Collaboration and value co-creation are important drivers of the continuous growth of e-commerce, which is expected to reach US $6.4 trillion in 2024 despite current global crises. Only a few transaction platforms currently dominate e-commerce (eg., Amazon, Walmart), but other participants are likely to join these platforms’ ecosystems. Third-party developers can provide extensions to these ecosystems to enhance the platforms’ functionality, but third-party developers’ role in e-commerce ecosystems’ success and generativity remains underexamined in academia. The present study scrutinizes the efficacy of boundary resources in attracting and managing third-party developers in e-commerce ecosystems. This investigation is predicated upon qualitative data gathered through interviews with 14 domain experts. The insights derived from these interviews have culminated in the formulation of seven design principles. These design principles are envisaged to serve as a guiding framework for owners of innovation and transaction platforms within the e-commerce sphere, facilitating the strategic deployment of boundary resources. It is anticipated that collaboration, value creation, and the overall generative capacity as well as the success of e-commerce ecosystems shall be considerably enhanced