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Das Ruhrgebiet als Ziel ausländischer Direktinvestitionen: Bildungsprojekt, gefördert durch die Brost-Akademie. Endbericht
No full textGrenzüberschreitende Direktinvestitionen aus dem Ausland (Foreign Direct Investment, FDI) sind sichtbare Kennzeichen einer erfolgreichen internationalen Wirtschaftsverflechtung. Das Ruhrgebiet ist als großer industrieller Ballungsraum das Ziel von Direktinvestitionen aus verschiedenen Herkunftsländern. Sie tragen zur Schaffung von Arbeitsplätzen und Standortsicherung von Unternehmen bei. Jedoch geben die massiven Verschiebungen der Wirtschaftsstrukturen im Zuge der Transformation zur Nachhaltigkeit sowie die steigende Verunsicherung hinsichtlich der Stabilität der politischen und gesellschaftlichen Rahmenbedingungen Anlass zu diesem Bildungsprojekt, das über den Zusammenhang von FDI und Regionalentwicklung aufklärt. Mit Hilfe umfangreicher Daten zu Unternehmensbilanzen beleuchten wir, aus welchen Herkunftsländern und Branchen die FDI im Ruhrgebiet stammen und welche regionale Bedeutung Unternehmen haben, in die investiert wird. Bisher liegen keine entsprechend vertiefenden Auswertungen für das Ruhrgebiet vor. Die Mehrheit der Beschäftigten in NRW ist in Unternehmen mit ausländischen Direktinvestitionen tätig. Während der Anteil an Unternehmen mit FDI im Ruhrgebiet geringer ist als etwa im benachbarten Düsseldorf, ist die regionalökonomische Bedeutung dieser Unternehmen im Ruhrgebiet höher. Der Anteil der Bilanzsumme der Unternehmen mit FDI an der Bilanzsumme aller Unternehmen liegt im Ruhrgebiet bei 78%, in Düsseldorf bei 50% und in Rest-NRW bei 60%. Betrachtet man die Investitionen der vergangenen zehn Jahre, so verzeichnen das Ruhrgebiet und NRW insgesamt eine stabile Entwicklung der FDI-Zuflüsse und widerstehen damit einem globalen Trend zurückgehender Direktinvestitionen. Im Ruhrgebiet lag wie auch im restlichen NRW der Schwerpunkt der Direktinvestitionen auf verschiedenen Branchen des Verarbeitenden Gewerbes sowie auf bisher traditionell starken Industrien wie Chemie und Gesundheit. Das Ruhrgebiet steht vor zahlreichen Herausforderungen bei der Bewältigung des Strukturwandels. So sind Arbeitnehmerinnen und Arbeitnehmer, die hochqualifizierte berufliche Tätigkeiten ausüben, unterrepräsentiert. Diese stellen aber einen wichtigen Standortfaktor dar und sind besonders wichtig im Prozess der industriellen Dekarbonisierung. Die Zusammenarbeit zwischen Bildungs- und Ausbildungssektor und Unternehmen innerhalb des regionalwirtschaftlichen "Ökosystems" gehört zu den Aufgaben beim Aufbau und bei der Förderung von Wirtschaftsclustern. Eine erhöhte Ansiedlung von FDI könnte dabei helfen, Die Resilienz des Ruhrgebietes im Strukturwandel und gegenüber globalen Schocks zu erhöhen. Angesichts der Größe der Region, die ihre Agglomerationsvorteile im internationalen Wettbewerb nur als Gesamtheit voll zur Geltung bringen kann, ist dabei eine Kooperation zwischen den Akteuren der Wirtschaftsförderung auf Ebene des Landes, des Regionalverbands Ruhr und der Kommunen erforderlich
Carbon taxes on consumption: Distributional implications for a just transition in the EU
No full textCarbon taxes on household consumption can simultaneously increase public funding and promote greener consumption habits, an appealing combination for the just transition plans of the European Union (EU). However, concerns about equity and public support pose challenges. This paper assesses the distributional and budgetary effects of various designs for an EU-wide hypothetical carbon tax on households consumption. To this end, we extend the EU tax-benefit microsimulation model, EUROMOD, with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions data from input-output tables and estimate households' carbon footprints. We show that a carbon tax on households GHG emissions would be regressive, thereby inequality-increasing. This is primarily due to the low income elasticity of highly GHG-intense necessity goods, such as food and heating, which represent larger shares of income at the bottom of the distribution. Still, we demonstrate that this inequality-increasing impact can be offset with compensatory cash transfers (though these may be challenging to implement), and at least partially reverted with more progressive (and presumably feasible) tax designs, including rate differentiation by products and tax allowances
One who hesitates is lost: Monetary policy under model uncertainty and model misspecification
No full textThis paper investigates how different parametrisations of the monetary policy reaction function and different mechanisms of expectation formation shape the macroeconomic outcomes in the estimated Smets-Wouters type of DSGE model. The initial macroeconomic conditions of the simulations correspond to the high inflation environment of early 2022. The simulation results show that, under the hybrid expectations, the terminal monetary policy rate is significantly higher than under the rational expectations for all Taylor rule parametrisations. Under hybrid expectations, the inflation rate is much more persistent than under the rational expectations; three years is not enough to reach the inflation target of two percent, even for the quite hawkish calibration of the Taylor rule. In the modelled economy, relatively fast inflation stabilisation for the hawkish Taylor rule has its own price in form of the cumulative output loss when compared with the dovish Taylor rule. Simulations are also performed for the case where the central bank misspecifies the expectation formation mechanism in the DSGE model and follows an interest rate path implied by a false model. The results show that the hawkish reaction is preferable for both correctly and incorrectly specified models
Processing macroeconomic signals: Voter responses to growth, unemployment, inflation and stock markets
No full textEconomic voting theory suggests that voters reward incumbents for strong economic performance and punish them for weak performance. However, this view often ignores the multidimensional nature of the economy. Hence, we lack systematic evidence about how voters simultaneously process multiple economic signals. This study provides a comprehensive examination of how voters respond to four key economic dimensions: growth, unemployment, inflation, and stock markets. We develop a theoretical framework distinguishing between different types of economic reasoning: macroeconomic, egotropic, sociotropic, and distributive reasoning. We first use descriptive data from OECD countries to understand the economy's dimensionality and analyze survey data from national election studies to assess the impact on economic evaluations. Finally, we present findings from survey experiments conducted in Germany, Sweden, and the United States, tailored to analyze the impact of the four economic dimensions in an ideal information setting. Our results reveal interesting patterns in how voters process economic information. Voters can discern relationships between economic dimensions and their effects on personal and economic circumstances, and distributional outcomes. Subsequently, all four signals independently affect preferences for economic policy and voting intentions. Inflation emerges as a dominant factor, shaping personal and national economic evaluations. Our findings challenge traditional approaches to economic voting by exploring how voters integrate multiple economic signals. By emphasizing the multidimensionality of economic signals, we highlight implications for democratic accountability
The effects of electronic monitoring on offenders and their families
No full textElectronic monitoring (EM) has emerged as a popular tool for curbing the growth of large prison populations. Evidence on the causal effects of EM on criminal recidivism is, however, limited and it is unclear how this alternative to incarceration affects the labor supply of offenders and the outcomes of their family members. We study the countrywide expansion of EM in Sweden in 1997 wherein offenders sentenced to up to three months in prison were granted the option to substitute incarceration with EM. Our difference-in-differences estimates, which compare the change in the prison inflow rate of treated offenders to that of non-treated offenders with slightly longer sentences, show that the reform significantly decreased the number of incarcerations. Our main finding is that EM not only lowers criminal recidivism but also increases labor supply. Additionally, EM improves the educational attainment and early-life earnings of the children whose parents were exposed to the reform. The primary mechanisms through which EM operates appear to involve the preservation of offenders' ties to the labor market, by reducing the barriers to both finding a job and changing employers. Our calculations suggest that the social benefits stemming from EM are about seven times larger than the fiscal savings associated with reduced prison expenditures, implying that the welfare gains from EM could be much greater than previously acknowledged
Integrating the EU twin (green and digital) transition? Synergies, tensions and pathways for the future of work
No full textThe green and digital transitions are increasingly described as the 'twin transition' in EU policy documents, social partners' strategic plans and academic debates. However, the exact meaning of this term remains ambiguous, and the interconnections between these transitions are largely unexplored. This paper aims to clarify the motivations and pitfalls behind their 'twinning' and assess where and how their convergence might be successful. It considers the socioeconomic risks, policy trade-offs and implications for the future of work. The analysis covers major EU employment and social policy developments concerning workers' environmental and digital rights, as enshrined in legislation that presents a 'mix' between two distinct legal areas. A key finding is that the transitions are often treated as separate rather than integrated phenomena, with limited direct spillovers. However, despite shifts in institutional agendas and inconsistencies in understanding, the underlying priorities remain deeply entrenched. This paper identifies regulatory gaps and rigidities that maintain outdated, inflexible and hierarchical organisational paradigms, which are ill-suited to the demands of the twin transitions. It also calls for regenerating labour regulation to foster positive interactions and modernisation of work practices. The proposed normative changes should promote worker-oriented flexibility, universal labour protection and worker participation in technological and green initiatives, paving the way for more sustainable working arrangements
Examining the effects of technical vocational education and training (TVET) on employment outcomes in the Philippines
No full textHuman capital theory suggests that accumulating skills through training leads to higher productivity and better employment outcomes. However, empirical evidence, including in the Philippines, shows mixed and limited results on the impact of technical and vocational education and training (TVET). Using labor force and graduate tracer surveys, this study examined whether pursuing TVET improves labor force participation (LFP), employment, and job quality, considering variations across education levels and program characteristics, by applying probabilistic regression and treatment effects estimations. Additionally, interviews with employers from priority sectors were conducted to gain insights into their views on TVET graduates' employability. The study found that completing a TVET program increases the likelihood of being economically active and seeking work, but there was no strong evidence that it improves the chances of obtaining employment or quality jobs. The employment effects of TVET vary by education level, benefiting only those with at least secondary education. These effects were strongest among secondary education graduates, which decreased with higher levels of education. TVET did not improve the employment outcomes of those with less than secondary education. Additionally, employment outcomes varied across training modalities, but not by program registration, certification, or scholarship status. Based on key informant interviews (KIIs) and a desk review, these findings can be attributed to supply-side, demand-side, and systemic factors, such as a mismatch of program offerings with industry standards, potential bias against TVET graduates, lack of recognition of certifications, and limited private sector involvement in training provision, development, certification, and assessment. The study concludes by offering policy recommendations to improve TVET's impact on employability and employment outcomes, along with suggestions for further research
Economics of an export tax in the standard Keynesian framework: the case of Nigeria
No full textThe standard textbook treatment of expansionary fiscal policy at intermediate macroeconomics level (and specifically implemented via a tax rate reduction), e.g., Blanchard (2021), Burda and Wyplosz (2023), or even at an advanced level, e.g., Romer (2018) - only considers tax cuts affecting the economy through the consumption function, by increasing the level of disposable income. Motivated by the public finance model in Nigeria, in this paper we introduce taxes on oil exports in the Keynesian cross framework and study the effects of a cut in those taxes. As expected, a cut in the export tax rate stimulates aggregate demand. There is also a multiplier effect, which we refer to the ”export tax multiplier effect.” Our findings are novel in the literature and could be of interest both to policy makers, as well as economists interested in economic education and teaching
Building net-zero African cities: Decarbonization and structural transformation
No full textThis paper examines how African cities can reconcile rapid urbanization and development imperatives with urgent decarbonization goals through structural transformation. It begins by mapping key sources of urban carbon - energy poverty, inefficient buildings, poor planning, transport systems, waste management, and construction practices - and quantifies their contributions to emissions. Building on the concept of a 'latecomer advantage', the study argues that African cities can bypass legacy fossil-fuel systems by investing directly in decentralized renewables, net-zero energy buildings, green transport, and waste-to-energy technologies. It emphasizes how targeted green investment can simultaneously alleviate energy poverty, create skilled employment, and reduce carbon dioxide, while underscoring the critical roles of governance, finance, and policy coherence. Persistent barriers, constrained public and private finance, weak institutional capacity, skills gaps, policy fragmentation, and digital divides are analysed to highlight where interventions are most needed. The paper then proposes an integrated, cross-sectoral framework that aligns urban planning, energy, waste, and construction under coherent policies, supported by inclusive stakeholder engagement and innovative financing instruments such as green bonds and public-private partnerships. It concludes with recommendations for strengthening multilevel governance, formalizing informal sectors, and fostering South-South cooperation to accelerate a just transition towards low-carbon, resilient, and inclusive African cities
The health effects of economic growth: Evidence from PM2.5-attributable mortality in China
No full textEconomic growth can bring material prosperity and improvements in public services to a country yet can simultaneously lead to environmental pollution that threatens population health, which has important implications for shaping macro-level policies. Here, we investigate the relationship between economic growth and mortality attributable to air pollution in China from 2002 to 2021, using data analyzed with Stata 18 software. We identify a counterintuitive U-shaped relationship between the two, with the coefficient of the primary term for economic growth at -1.222 and the quadratic term at -0.053, both statistically significant at the 1% level. The inflection point, with accounting for control variables, is calculated to be 99,708 yuan (CNY) per person. These results withstand different empirical testing. We then perform heterogeneity analyses at the city level and find that disparities in social, economic, and physical geographical conditions lead to an unequal mortality burden that persists. Economic growth may have negative impacts on population health after crossing a certain threshold, although the effects vary across different regions. Our findings reveal that the benefits of economic growth may not 'trickle down' to improve population health. Policymakers cannot take economic growth as an intrinsic good that would inevitably lead to better population health. Greater emphasis should be placed on egalitarian welfare systems, investments in environmental improvements, and other life-supporting priorities, as these measures could mitigate the negative health impacts of economic growth and promote a virtuous cycle between the economy and population health