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Economic principles for European rearmament
No full text• We present five guiding principles for European rearmament. Europe's rearmament should be (i) innovation-driven to support European technological capabilities, competitiveness, and productivity growth; (ii) aim for a rapid increase in production capacities for a high-low mix of military capabilities; (iii) rely on quantitative goalpost for R&D expenditures and an unmanned autonomous systems; (iv) build on independent European capabilities alongside NATO to reduce dependence on increasingly unreliable American assets; (v) substantially increase military support for Ukraine as the cost-efficient way towards European security in the short-run. • The central steps are the creation of a European defense single market, the reduction of national fragmentation, and the development of joint European defense capabilities.• In diesem Papier formulieren wir fünf Leitprinzipien für die europäische Aufrüstung. Die europäische Aufrüstung sollte (i) innovationsgetrieben sein, um die technologischen Fähigkeiten, die Wettbewerbsfähigkeit und das Produktivitätswachstum Europas zu stärken; (ii) auf einem schnellen Hochfahren industrieller Kapazitäten sowohl im Hoch- als auch im Niedrigtechnologiebereich abzielen; (iii) auf quantitativen Zielvorgaben für FE-Ausgaben und den Ausbau unbemannter autonomer Systeme beruhen; (iv) unabhängige europäische Fähigkeiten neben der NATO aufbauen, um die Abhängigkeit von zunehmend unzuverlässigen amerikanischen Ressourcen zu verringern; (v) die militärische Unterstützung für die Ukraine substanziell ausweiten, da eine siegreiche Ukraine kurzfristig der günstigste Weg für mehr Sicherheit in Europa darstellt. • Zentrale Schritte dorthin sind die Schaffung eines europäischen Verteidigungsbinnenmarktes, der Abbau nationaler Fragmentierung und der Aufbau gemeinsamer europäischer Verteidigungskapazitäten
The Costs of Job Displacement and the Demand for Industry-Specific Human Capital
No full textIt is well established that job displacement leads to large and persistent earnings losses, but the reasons for these long-term losses remain unclear. A leading theory ties earnings losses to the demand laid-off workers face for their industry-specific human capital, yet evidence in support of this theory is lacking. This paper proposes a novel method for estimating the demand for workers' industry-specific skills. I proxy for the worker's skill set with her occupation, and measure how industry-specific her occupation is by the share of the occupation that is employed in her industry. The demand for the worker's industry-specific skills is then estimated by the industry growth rate. Applying this measure, I test for heterogeneity in the costs of displacement for manufacturing workers in Israel. I show that workers laid off from shrinking industries who held highly industry-specific occupations suffer from substantially greater earnings losses, as predicted by the theory. Within shrinking industries, these workers experience earnings losses that are 76% higher than workers in occupations with low industry-specificity. These losses in earnings are driven by a persistent effect on employment, as workers with industry-specific occupations are 2.5 times more likely to exit the labor market in the years following displacement. The findings are robust to within-firm analysis, indicating that these results are not explained by a loss of firm wage premiums
Bridging climate and social equity: Progressive carbon tax simulations for Belgium
No full textThis paper explores the distributive impact of a hypothetical carbon tax on households' transport and energy consumption in Belgium. It focuses on the welfare effects across population groups and along the income distribution, as well as on the expected budgetary and environmental effects, accounting for consumer responses under a partial equilibrium microsimulation framework. Given the well-known regressive features of consumption taxes in general, and of energy- or carbon-related taxes in particular, this study evaluates various methods for making the carbon tax more progressive and assesses how these methods affect the overall distributional outcomes. We assess both the expected results as well as the feasibility of each of the tax design scenarios, considering the effect on household income and its distribution vis-a-vis the expected reduction in greenhouse gas emissions
Political life after ethnic war
No full textIn post-war elections a large number of citizens vote for political parties with deep roots in the violent organizations of the past. However, despite the prevalence of rebel, militia, and military successor parties, their success varies dramatically. This study explores the correlates of civil war belligerent party performance in contexts emerging from ethnic wars fought over government control and over territory. It seeks to understand how parties with coercive legacies seek votes and why, in turn, citizens go to the polls and elect these parties to political office following these different types of conflicts. The study embeds illustrative case studies of ethnic wars within an original cross-national database of founding post-war elections between 1970 and 2015
A behavioral perspective on visualization in manufacturing and operations management: a review, framework, and research agenda
No full textVisualizations are ubiquitous in today's manufacturing operations, whether in the form of time series, scatter plots, flow charts, or dashboards. Managers, engineers, and shop-floor workers use visualizations to understand and act on production data for monitoring, problem solving, decision making, and strategy development. How we present the information we need influences our actions and behaviors. Therefore, we systematically review and analyze the current literature in manufacturing and operations management on visualizations and their relationship to behavioral operations in terms of social, cognitive, and emotional benefits as well as resulting performance improvements of production systems. Through content analysis of 64 papers from 1997 to 2023 across eight operational contexts and types of visualizations, we find typical purposes, benefits, and pitfalls where behavioral mechanisms are prevalent. Visualizations are used to facilitate knowledge explanation and sharing for improved communication and collaboration, or to reduce cognitive load and mental cost for increased quality and resource efficiency in task execution. The results are synthesized in an integrative framework that explains the links between visualizations and operations through their common behavioral mechanisms. We propose eight directions and map concrete hypotheses for future research in this area to promote the targeted development, deployment, and evaluation of visualizations in manufacturing considering behavioral and operational performance factors. Our study contributes to the emerging literature on visualizations in operations management, provides an overview and guidance for further efforts in this area, and helps practitioners reflect on and improve their design and use of visualizations, thereby advancing their management toolbox
The effect of child-related benefits on child poverty and deprivation in Ireland
No full textChild poverty is of growing concern in Ireland and internationally due to the growing body of evidence on the detrimental effects of childhood socio-economic disadvantage on children, both in the short term and in the long term through loss of education, earnings and health. In Ireland, child poverty has been typically higher than that of other groups of the population over the last few years by many metrics. There are a number of ways that policy can tackle child poverty. One such way is increasing the earnings of families with children by reducing barriers to work. Another way is reform to the tax-benefit system, including in-kind benefits, in a manner that targets families with children. This research is concerned with the latter and investigates the effect on child poverty of the existing tax-benefit system, accounting for many in-kind benefits; analysis includes consideration of the At Risk of Poverty rate, the deprivation rate and the consistent poverty rate. Using the microsimulation model, SWITCH, and accounting for in-kind child benefits, we simulate the child AROP rate for 2025 to be 13.9 per cent, the child material deprivation rate to be 19.5 per cent and the child consistent poverty rate to be 5.6 per cent. We estimate that, in the absence of child-contingent benefits, child poverty rates would be considerably higher. Child-contingent in-cash benefits reduce the child AROP rate by 10 percentage points, the child material deprivation rate by 3.2 percentage points and the child consistent poverty rate by 6.7 percentage points. We estimate that in-kind childcontingent benefits also reduce child poverty, albeit by a more modest magnitude. In the absence of in-kind child-contingent benefits, the child AROP rate would be 1.5 percentage points higher, the child material deprivation rate would be 0.6 percentage points higher, and the child consistent poverty rate would be 1 percentage point higher. Using SWITCH, the ESRI's tax-benefit model, we also simulate some reforms to the tax-benefit system that could further reduce child poverty. These reforms include increasesto the Working Families Payment, to Child Support Payments and to Child Benefit, as well as the introduction of a means-tested second tier of Child Benefit. We find that a second tier of Child Benefit would be the most cost effective of these reforms at tackling child poverty, reducing the child AROP rate by 4.6 percentage points, the child material deprivation rate by 0.7 percentage points and the child consistent poverty rate by 2.1 percentage points
A review of traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralised finance (DeFi), and its challenges to the lending market.
No full textIn this work, we systematically analyse the differences and similarities between TradFi (Traditional Finance) and DeFi (Decentralised Finance). Financial technology is rapidly expanding, and large technology firms are making advances in credit markets. The Internet of Value (IOV), with its distributed ledger technology (DLT) as a basis, has developed new types of loan marketplaces. In this paper, we enumerate the prospects & challenges of Traditional Finance (TradFi) lending markets driven by banks and other lending institutes, as well as the opportunities of DeFi lending protocols that may support the resolution of long-standing concerns in the conventional lending landscape. Overall, fintech and big tech credit appear to complement rather than substitute the traditional forms of lending
Self-Selection into Health Professions
No full textThe health sector requires skilled, altruistic, and motivated individuals to perform complex tasks for which ex-post incentives may prove ineffective. Understanding the determinants of self-selection into health professions is therefore critical. We investigate this issue relying on data from surveys and incentivized dictator games. We compare applicants to medical and healthcare schools in Italy and Austria with non-applicants from the same regions and age cohorts. Drawing on a wide range of individual characteristics, we employ machine learning techniques for variable selection. Our findings show that higher cognitive ability, greater altruism, and the personality trait of conscientiousness are positively associated with the likelihood of applying to medical or nursing school, while neuroticism is negatively associated. Additionally, individuals with a strong identification with societal goals and those with parents working as doctors are more likely to pursue medical education. These results provide evidence of capable, altruistic, and motivated individuals self-selecting into the health sector, a necessary condition for building a high-quality healthcare workforce
Forschungsmonitoring "Arbeit der Zukunft", Ausgabe 30 - April bis Juni 2025 (Berichtszeitraum)
No full textDas Forschungsmonitoring Nr. 30 gibt einen Überblick über aktuelle Studien und Publikationen zur Arbeitswelt der Zukunft für den Berichtszeitraum April bis Juni 2025. Es orientiert sich an den Schwerpunkten der Forschungsstelle "Arbeit der Zukunft": Digitalisierung und Arbeit der Zukunft, Standards für digitale Arbeitsformen, Beschäftigung im Wandel, Arbeit aufwerten, Atmende Arbeitszeiten und Zeitarrangements, Künstliche Intelligenz und Sozial-ökologische Transformatio
When markets merge: Evidence from Ireland's integration with the European wholesale electricity market
No full textHow does electricity market integration affect cross-border electricity flows, wholesale prices and renewable electricity generation? We employ a synthetic control method to contribute to literature on electricity market integration using the 2018 integration of Ireland's Single Electricity Market with the European market as an empirical case study. Results indicate a decrease in inefficient electricity flows between Ireland and Great Britain and an increase in the level of market integration with Great Britain. We find no effect on the average wholesale electricity price in Ireland, and this may reflect interconnector congestion. We also find no short-term increase in renewable generation