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A polycentric approach for addressing wicked social problems
No full textMost social problems are "wicked", meaning that they are highly complex, intractable, open-ended, and multi-dimensional. In wicked learning environments, information is ambiguous, feedback may be slow, or causes and effects are difficult to ascertain. Using the insights from the Bloomington school of political economy, this paper argues that a polycentric approach is the most effective way to address wicked social problems. Polycentric systems are characterized by multiple, overlapping decision-making centers that have varying degrees of independence and interdependence. When decision-makers in governments, markets, and civil society tackle complex social problems simultaneously, various forms of cooperation and contestation emerge. These interactions subsequently produce the relevant knowledge and incentives to address wicked social problems on a variety of margins. Centralized, one-size-fits-all approaches are less likely to succeed because they have weaker epistemic and incentive-related qualities. We use two examples to illustrate our argument, including post-disaster recovery and climate change mitigation
Assessment of socio-economic impacts of hyperloop technology on European trade routes
No full textThis study investigates the possible socio-economic impacts of Hyperloop technology on establishing and reshaping EU trade routes. Hyperloop - a novel ultra-high-speed transportation system - demonstrates the capability to achieve supersonic speeds to move cargo and passengers. Delivering goods in a faster and sustainable way could change the existing trade routes and offer new opportunities for the development of international trade. This research focuses on assessing how Hyperloop may influence existing EU trade routes by improving delivery times and reducing energy usage/carbon emissions (these terms will be used interchangeably throughout the paper where both reducing long-terms costs and meeting climate goals are equally impacted by this technology). Further objectives include evaluating potential new trade routes that could emerge due to Hyperloop's capabilities. In this paper, twelve different scenarios are constructed and compared; these scenarios contain the description of current EU trade routes that could be influenced by Hyperloop and those that could be introduced given the improved delivery times and sustainable business opportunities. The gravity model is proposed and an equation is estimated using the PPML (Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood) method based on Eurostat and IMF open data. Based on the research results, different socio-economic outcomes for different layers of EU trade, including negative and positive impacts, are identified. The findings suggest that deploying Hyperloop technology would result in a 15% increase in exports and a 10% increase in imports for European trade. Both positive and negative socio-economic impacts are identified, highlighting the complexities of adopting such a disruptive technology. The research results could be used in the process of decision-making for estimating risks and performing economic analysis on various aspects of the EU trade policy. The study results could also guide EU decision-makers in assessing the main impacts of Hyperloop technology on the transportation industry, on the environment, and on society, in the context of further developing EU trade routes
Foreign or Domestic Affairs? Unpacking Mechanisms Behind Colombia and Peru's Policies on Venezuelan Displacement
No full textWhile forced displacement policies are shaped by both international and domestic considerations, little is known about how states navigate conflicting pressures when adopting liberal or restrictive approaches. This article addresses this gap by examining the divergent responses of the two largest recipients of Venezuelan displaced people: Peru under Martín Vizcarra (2018–2020) and Colombia under Iván Duque (2018–2022). Although both Peru and Colombia are middle-income countries with significant emigration and share growing public resentment toward migrants and strained relations with Nicolás Maduro's regime, they pursued opposite policies. In 2019, Peru imposed a visa requirement for Venezuelan migrants, restricting access, whereas in 2021 Colombia created the Temporary Protection Status, allowing for regularization and a path to residency. Using 65 interviews with policymakers and experts, over 200 statements by public officials, and secondary literature, this study identifies the mechanisms behind these contradictory policies. It argues that whether forced displacement is perceived by executive actors as a foreign or domestic issue shapes the nature of policy in countries that would otherwise be expected to respond similarly. These perceptions are ultimately explained by executives’ need for self-preservation and self-legitimation within strategic political contexts. Four key factors—importance given to Venezuela, international reputation, executive strength, and, to a lesser extent, bureaucratic frameworks—determine whether foreign or domestic logics prevail. By showing how Latin American responses integrate both logics rather than fitting neatly into Global North/South binaries, this study challenges dominant dichotomies in migration scholarship
How does banking concentration affect financial inclusion in the Southern African region?
No full textFinancial inclusion is an important enabler of economic development and aligns with several United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. In most sub-Saharan African countries, financial inclusion efforts take place in the presence of concentrated and bank-dominated systems. This study investigates the relationship between banking concentration and financial inclusion, focusing on account ownership, savings, and loans from 2010 to 2021. This paper employs dynamic panel threshold modelling to identify concentration thresholds that influence the direction of the relationship. A U-shaped relationship is identified, indicating relatively high levels of bank concentration that can benefit bank account ownership and loans. Thresholds for savings are relatively low. The effect of bank concentration on savings and loans is tempered by mobile phone penetration. Strong property rights and low levels of corruption also moderate this relationship, underscoring the importance of institutional frameworks in fostering trust and reducing informational asymmetries
Mobilität 2040: Warum Smart Mobility den ÖPNV nicht ersetzt, sondern rettet
No full textDie urbane Mobilität befindet sich in einem fundamentalen Wandel. Digitalisierung, Klimaziele und neue Nutzerpräferenzen treiben die Entwicklung integrierter, datengestützter Mobilitätsangebote voran - von Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) über autonome Flotten bis hin zu smarter Fahrradinfrastruktur. Gleichzeitig geraten klassische ÖPNV-Modelle unter ökonomischen Druck: Sie basieren auf statischer Planung, hohen Fixkosten und benötigen für ihre Effizienz eine kritische Auslastung. Dieser Policy Impuls zeigt: Der ÖPNV kann seine Stärken - Raumeffizienz, Klimaverträglichkeit, hohe Beförderungskapazitäten - nur dann entfalten, wenn er sich auf stark frequentierte Kernnetze fokussiert. In weniger stark genutzten Relationen drohen Fehlallokationen. Hier braucht es die intelligente Ergänzung durch geteilte Mobilitätsangebote, die flexibler, digital integrierbar und weitgehend privatwirtschaftlich organisiert sind. Die Zukunft liegt in einer funktionalen Arbeitsteilung: Kernnetze des ÖPNV bilden das Rückgrat urbaner Mobilität, während Shared Mobility als dezentrales, adaptives Komplement dient. Voraussetzung ist eine tiefe physische und digitale Integration beider Systeme. Nur so lassen sich Effizienz, Nutzerfreundlichkeit und Nachhaltigkeit in Einklang bringen - und eine ökonomisch tragfähige Mobilitätswende realisieren
Hemmnisse und Herausforderungen bei der Bewältigung der demografischen Produktivitätslücke in Deutschland
No full textDas Gewicht der Erwerbspersonen an der Gesamtbevölkerung wird in Deutschland deutlich abnehmen. Deshalb muss die Arbeitsproduktivität ansteigen, um zumindest das (reale) Pro-Kopf-Einkommen der Bevölkerung zu stabilisieren. Wird das ProKopf-Wachstum der letzten drei Dekaden von 1,2 Prozent angestrebt, dann muss die Arbeitsproduktivität pro Jahr um 1,8 Prozent zulegen. Diese demografisch bedingte Produktivitätslücke kann nur durch fortschreitende Kapitalintensivierung und technisch-organisatorischen Fortschritt geschlossen werden. Im Durchschnitt der letzten fünf Jahre haben technisch-organisatorische Veränderungen das Produktivitätswachstum jedoch vermindert. Die Beiträge der Kapitalintensivierung fallen bereits seit rund 20 Jahren schwächer aus. Die Erwartungen der Unternehmen hinsichtlich ihrer zukünftigen Produktivitätsentwicklung sind nicht optimistisch. Die Hälfte der vom IW befragten Unternehmen erwartet für die nächsten fünf bis zehn Jahre ein schwaches, weitere 36 Prozent erwarten ein normales Produktivitätswachstum. Nur 8 Prozent gehen von einer beschleunigten Produktivitätsdynamik aus. Hemmnisse für eine bessere Produktivitätsentwicklung sind die Regulierungsdichte, die hohen bürokratischen Hürden und Reportingpflichten. Fachkräftemangel und fehlendes Personal für Forschung und Entwicklung bremsen Produktivitätsfortschritte. Die Organisation sichererer Lieferketten und kundenspezifische Produktion erfordern personellen Mehraufwand, der für über ein Drittel der Firmen negative Produktivitätswirkungen hat. Eine unzureichende Forschungsförderung wird ebenso als Hemmnis genannt sowie Unsicherheiten bei der Transformation und ihre Kosten.Germany's workforce is set to decline significantly as a proportion of the total population. This means that if (real) per capita income is to at least remain stable, labour productivity will need to rise. Indeed, maintaining the per capita growth rate of 1.2 percent achieved over the last three decades will require an annual labour productivity increase of 1.8 percent. This demographic productivity gap can only be closed by means of accelerated capital intensification and technical and organisational progress. Averaged over the last five years, however, technical and organisational changes have actually slowed productivity growth, while the contribution of capital intensification has been weaker for the last 20-odd years. Moreover, companies' estimates of their scope for future productivity increases are not optimistic. Half of the companies surveyed by the German Economic Institute (IW) expect their productivity growth over the next five to ten years to be weak, a further 36 percent expect it to be normal, with only 8 percent anticipating an acceleration. Obstacles to more rapid improvements in productivity include the regulatory thicket, high levels of red tape and excessive reporting requirements. Skills shortages and a lack of personnel for research and development also hobble progress on productivity. Over a third of companies report that securing supply chains and customising products are a drain on human resources and thus have a negative impact on productivity, while one in three companies cites insufficient government research grants as an obstacle. Uncertainties surrounding the green and digital transformation and its costs are also seen as hindering productivity
Great expectations: Quantifying the potential economic impact of the WTO Agreement on E-commerce
No full textAs digital trade becomes an increasingly vital component of the global economy, identifying the impact of wider international cooperation on digital trade issues becomes a growing policy imperative. This paper seeks to provide a quantitative analysis of the potential economic impacts of concluding the WTO Agreement on E-commerce (AoE). Immediate adoption of the AoE by the 71 economies that currently support its incorporation is projected to raise their GDP by 0.43% and trade by 0.97% with global GDP increasing by 0.14% and global trade by 0.58%. For each year that the implementation is delayed, USD 159 billion is being left on the table (cumulative USD 2.4 trillion until 2040). The quantitative analysis also indicates that if the AoE were to be extended to all WTO Member States, the global economic benefits would nearly quadruple from a 0.14% to a 0.51% increase in GDP and a 2.3% increase in global trade, or USD 8.7 trillion by 2040, mostly favouring low- and lower-middle-income economies, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. As WTO Members continue to deliberate about how best to incorporate the AoE into the WTO architecture, the findings from this paper underscore the economic benefits of enacting the AoE and the importance of expanding participation as much as possible to maximise its development potential
Governance and institutional frameworks in Ethiopian Integrated Agro-Industrial Parks: Enhancing innovation ecosystems and multi stakeholder coordination for global market competitiveness
No full textThis study investigates the interrelationships between institutional frameworks, innovation ecosystems, and stakeholder coordination in enhancing the global competitiveness of Ethiopia's Integrated Agro-Industrial Parks (IAIPs) in Yirgalem and Bulbula. A mixed-methods approach combining qualitative thematic analysis, Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM), and SWOT analysis was employed to evaluate the influence of governance structures on innovation and competitiveness. Findings suggest that while strong institutional frameworks and effective stakeholder coordination foster innovation, a misalignment between the innovation ecosystem and global market demands limits competitiveness. Rigid institutional structures hinder IAIPs' adaptability to market fluctuations. Future research should explore the role of digital transformation, such as digital agriculture tools and traceability systems, in enhancing competitiveness. Additionally, examining the influence of public-private partnerships and conducting longitudinal studies on adaptive governance’s effect on IAIP resilience could provide valuable insights for the development of Ethiopia’s agro-industrial sector. The study underscores the need for flexible, market-responsive frameworks and enhanced stakeholder engagement