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There must be an error here! Experimental evidence on coding errors' biases
No full textQuantitative research relies heavily on coding, and coding errors are relatively common even in published research. In this paper, we examine whether individuals are more or less likely to check their code depending on the results they obtain. We test this hypothesis in a randomized experiment embedded in the recruitment process for research positions at a large international economic organization. In a coding task designed to assess candidates' programming abilities, we randomize whether participants obtain an expected or unexpected result if they commit a simple coding error. We find that individuals are almost 20% more likely to detect coding errors when they lead to unexpected results. This asymmetry in error detection depending on the results they generate suggests that coding errors may lead to biased findings in scientific research
Wars Come and Go, International Society Changes, and Religions Endure: Narratives of Religious Actors on the Ukraine War
No full textIn the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, reactions by religious leaders have differed greatly, with the Shia Ayatollah blaming the United States for the war, the Catholic Pope calling the United Nations “impotent,” and the Dalai Lama stating that “war is outdated.” But has there been a change in any of these religious narratives when it comes to war? Does the Ukraine war signify a turning point, or can we observe more of the same? Embedded in an English School framework, this article conducts a narrative analysis to better understand whether and how the primary institutions of war and international law are being (re)interpreted. The article analyses these three religious actors’ narratives on the Ukraine war and compares them to their respective past war narratives. The article examines how these narratives reflect a strengthening and even an expansion or an undermining and thus weakening of international society, with a particular emphasis on the primary institutions of war and international law as well as the secondary institution of the United Nations. The article argues that at least for religious actors in international politics, the Ukraine war does not pose a formative event in global security policy. Instead, these actors may have missed a critical juncture for strengthening or even upholding international law. -Die Reaktionen von Religionsführern infolge des russischen Angriffskriegs auf die Ukraine fielen sehr unterschiedlich aus. Während der schiitische Ayatollah die USA für den Krieg verantwortlich machte, bezeichnete der römisch-katholische Papst die Vereinten Nationen als „impotent“; und der Dalai Lama erklärte, Krieg wäre überholt. Aber hat es seit dem Ukraine-Krieg eine Veränderung der religiösen Narrative gegeben? Handelt es sich bei dem Ukraine-Krieg um formatives Ereignis (eine „Zeitenwende“) oder bleibt alles beim Alten? Die Englische Schule bildet das theoretische Rahmenwerk des Artikels, der mithilfe einer narrativen Analyse untersucht, ob und wie die Primärinstitutionen Krieg und Völkerrecht (neu) interpretiert werden. Die Narrative dieser drei Religionsführer zum Ukraine-Krieg werden mit vergangenen Kriegsnarrativen verglichen. Auf dieser Analyse aufbauend, erforscht der Artikel, inwiefern diese Narrative ein Erstarken oder gar ein Ausweiten oder ein Untergraben und somit eine Schwächung der internationalen Gesellschaft widerspiegelt. Dabei wird ein Schwerpunkt auf die Primärinstitutionen Krieg und Völkerrecht sowie auf die Sekundärinstitution Vereinte Nationen gelegt. Der Artikel argumentiert, dass der Ukraine-Krieg zumindest für religiöse Akteure in der internationalen Politik kein formatives Ereignis für die globale Sicherheitspolitik bedeutet. Im Gegenteil wird argumentiert, dass diese Akteure solch einen Zeitpunkt, um das Völkerrecht zu stärken oder überhaupt aufrechtzuerhalten, womöglich versäumt haben
Peepoo! Uncovering the Impact of the Eastern European Immigration Shock on Wages Employment and Unemployment in the UK
No full textNo empirical evidence has ever been reported that the large inflow of accession immigrants – following the 2004 expansion of the European Union – led to a fall in wages or employment, or a rise in unemployment in the UK between 2004 and 2006. This immigration shock was unexpectedly larger and faster – as well as more concentrated into areas and occupations – than anticipated, seemingly more akin to an exogenous supply shock than most immigration shocks. Exploiting rich but underused individual level data from the Lifetime Labour Market Database (LLMDB) we estimate the effect of this immigration shock on wages, employment and unemployment of natives and previously existing immigrants in the UK. We confirm once again the finding of little evidence that the inflow of accession immigrants led to a fall in wages, a fall in employment, or a rise in unemployment of natives in the UK between 2004 and 2006. However, we uncover, for the first time, novel evidence of adverse employment and unemployment effects for low paid existing immigrants as a result of the accession immigration inflow. This is more severe for low paid immigrants and young low paid immigrants as well as for long term unemployed immigrants
Market power and wages: evidence from Brazil
No full textPurpose: The paper examines the impact of market power on wages within the context of a developing country, focusing on Brazil. Design/methodology/approach: With access to matched employer-employee data from Brazil, we first characterized the evolution of the local labor market concentration (Municipality Herfindahl-Hirschman Index [HHI]). Then, we built a fixed-effect model with instrumental variables to verify the association between the local labor market concentration and wages. Finally, a difference-in-difference (DiD) was implemented to verify whether a merger transaction impacted the workers' earnings in the Brazilian banking sector. Findings: The paper's findings suggest that there may be a negative relationship between market power and workers' earnings. Originality/value: This research conducted an in-depth investigation of the labor market power in a developing country. As far as we know, our work is the first to evaluate the extension of local concentration in Brazilian formal labor markets and to illustrate its evolution over the last decades. Additionally, when going through the effects of market concentration on wages, we use a new identification strategy that explores changes in the HHI that are caused by national trends in an industry as a source of exogenous variation. Finally, the last part of the paper assesses the effects of antitrust policy on the labor market, a kind of investigation that is still scarce
Shining a Light on Resilience: Overcoming Hurricane Odile's Impact on Electricity and the Economy
No full textOver the past decades, Latin America and the Caribbean have experienced a significant increase in natural disasters, posing significant threats to infrastructure and economic activity, particularly in regions with poor infrastructure. Understanding the patterns in recovery time after disasters is key to designing accurate responses to natural hazards. In this paper, we develop a methodological approach and use Hurricane Odile, which struck Baja California Sur, Mexico, in September 2014, as a case study to understand the recovery paths following such disasters. We rely on nighttime lights data to capture the initial impact and eventual recovery of electricity service and economic activity in the area of impact of the hurricane. We find that the average luminosity dropped to 78% of pre-hurricane levels immediately after the event and did not fully recover within a year. Impacts are heterogeneous, with localities such as Cabo San Lucas and San José del Cabo experiencing more severe impacts and slower recovery compared to La Paz, which recovered faster. These results suggest that disaster evaluation, mitigation policies, and preventive measures against disaster impacts should be tailored to local realities
Harnessing AI for accounting integrity: Innovations in fraud detection and prevention
No full textAccounting fraud poses significant financial and reputational risks for organizations. Traditional detection methods - such as manual audits and red-flag indicators - struggle to keep pace with the growing volume and complexity of financial data. In contrast, artificial intelligence technologies, including machine learning, anomaly detection, and natural language processing, offer scalable, realtime solutions to identify suspicious activity more efficiently. This paper compares conventional fraud detection techniques with AI-driven approaches, highlighting their respective strengths and limitations in terms of accuracy, efficiency, scalability, and adaptability. While AI enables faster and more comprehensive analysis, it also raises challenges related to data quality, algorithmic bias, and transparency. Ethical and legal considerations, including data privacy and compliance with regulations, are crucial for responsible implementation. The paper concludes with strategic recommendations for adopting AI-based fraud detection systems - emphasizing AI readiness, robust data governance, and human oversight. With a thoughtful approach, AI has the potential to significantly enhance the detection and prevention of accounting fraud
Regional embeddedness is the key: Quantity and quality of regional business opportunity perception
No full textThe perception of regional opportunities is the crucial starting point of the entrepreneurial process. To explain regional opportunity perception in general and innovative regional opportunity perception specifically is of key interest for steering regional entrepreneurial activities. It is known that entrepreneurship is a regional phenomenon; thus, the interrelation between individual inhabitants of a region and their regional context is of crucial relevance. A primary data collection in Germany assessed the regional embeddedness of inhabitants on four levels—actor, network, environment, and culture. The relation between these levels and the likelihood of opportunity perception is analysed by applying binary logistic regression analyses. The results suggest that regional embeddedness matters, although innovative regional opportunity perception is less dependent on regional embeddedness than regional opportunity perception in general. Derived from the results, entrepreneurship policies aiming at regional economic development, potentially profit most when policies focus on innovative entrepreneurial endeavours
Retrieval-Augmented Generation of Event Collections from Web Archives and the Live Web
No full textCreating collections of societally impactful events is a challenging task given the sheer amount of information about such events covering a large variety of aspects and perspectives in web archives and the live web. The automatic creation of such collections from web archives typically does not live up to the high standards of web archivists, who put lots of manual effort into carefully curating collections. Furthermore, the lack of engaging presentation methods sets up a burden for any users aiming to interact effectively with event collections in order to explore an event in its entirety. Therefore, we (i) conduct expert interviews to determine the requirements for building and utilising event collections from the perspectives of web archivists, (ii) introduce EventExplorer – a retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) approach to create event collections through efficient retrieval and diversified ranking – and make it available in an interactive web system, (iii) apply EventExplorer on different sources including a web archive and the live web, (iv) discuss which requirements are met by EventExplorer as well as the challenges that remain for future work, with a specific emphasis on the distinctive characteristics of both archived web and the live web environments. We demonstrate the effectiveness of EventExplorer applied on web archives through a user study of our interactive system. Then, we transfer our lessons learned to the live web by creating event collections of 166 elections in Europe. Our evaluation results show the effectiveness of EventExplorer in addressing the requirements identified in our expert interviews. Further, we derive a set of challenges and potential future steps for bringing together the automatic creation of web archive collections and manual curation. Finally, we discuss how to make web archives ready for their use in RAG systems
Vertical mergers without foreclosure
No full textThe typical concern about vertical mergers is the foreclosure of downstream rivals. In a vertically related industry where downstream firms have a common supplier, margins can reveal whether upstream competition constrains that supplier. I develop a test (based on margins) to identify whether the supplier is constrained premerger and, consequently, cannot raise input prices postmerger. However, even without foreclosure in equilibrium, vertical mergers can harm consumers. Vertical mergers increase consumer prices and benefit all firms, including downstream rivals, when downstream (horizontal) competition weakens sufficiently. This theory of harm differs from typical theories, which pit the merged entity against downstream rivals