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Forecasting inflation: The sum of the cycles outperforms the whole
No full textInflation dynamics reflect forces operating at different cycles, from short-lived shocks to longterm structural trends. We introduce the sum-of-the-cycles (SOC) method, which exploits this multifrequency structure of inflation for forecasting. SOC decomposes inflation into cyclical components, applies forecasting models suited to their persistence, and recombines them into an aggregate forecast. Across U.S. inflation measures and horizons, SOC consistently outperforms leading time-series benchmarks, reducing forecast errors by about 25 percent at short horizons and nearly 50 percent at long horizons. During the 2020-21 inflation surge, when many models - including advanced machine-learning methods - struggled, SOC retained strong performance by incorporating shortage indicators. Beyond accuracy, SOC enhances interpretability: financial variables dominate high- and business-cycle frequencies, Phillips Curve models are most informative at medium frequencies, and factor-based methods, forecast combinations, and shortage indices prevail at low frequencies. This combination of accuracy and transparency makes SOC a practical complement to existing tools for inflation forecasting and policy analysis
Jevons Stanley (Stan) Metcalfe and his contributions to the Journal of Evolutionary Economics
No full textHeterogeneity in health insurance choice: An experimental investigation of consumer choice and feature preferences
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We investigate heterogeneity in health insurance choice using data from a controlled laboratory experiment. Participants make consecutive choices from sets of insurance plans that vary in premium, deductible, and complementary coverage of illnesses. We find that there is considerable heterogeneity in how much individuals are willing to pay for certain plan attributes. To better understand these differences, we account for individual risk preferences using a rank‐dependent expected utility (RDEU) model and assess the welfare effects of plan choices. At the aggregate level, we find welfare losses under both the normative RDEU model and the descriptive EV model. At the individual level, however, the results are more differentiated: for some individuals, choices are consistent with their RDEU preferences, whereas for others, choices do not fit either model, suggesting either decision errors or reliance on heuristics
The Mission (Im)possible of Climate Action through Quixotic Institutional Work
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The ‘iron cage’ of the (neo‐) liberal‐capitalist system prioritizes economic returns over climate protection. Formerly powerful nation‐states are subordinated to the rule of markets, whereas business elites have been freed from substantial responsibility for social and environmental concerns. While we agree in principle with the Point that a reassertion of state power may facilitate more decided climate action, our Counterpoint adopts a cultural institutionalist perspective that highlights the embeddedness of actors in a broader cultural order. From this perspective, actors enact scripts while often lacking substantive agency towards protecting the natural environment. Cultural change in meanings, myths, practices, and rituals is needed to remodel the currently dominant scripts and templates of modern, liberal‐capitalist ‘world society’, including the script of state actorhood. We suggest the notion of ‘quixotic institutional work’ as a way of envisioning and prefiguring alternative cultural templates when both the physical and the social reality start showing cracks due to the climate crisis. Quixotic institutional work follows the logic of appropriateness rather than consequential purposiveness, and thus constitutes a different, often overlooked and mocked, form of agency for systems change relevant in the light of powerful forces towards maintaining an unsustainable world order
Overcome the gender gap: analyzing massive open online courses through the lens of stereotype threat theory
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Despite ongoing progress towards gender equality in education, women remain significantly underrepresented in computer science—a field still shaped by stereotypical expectations in our society. This gap is evident in both traditional classroom settings and online learning platforms such as MOOCs, where women face psychological barriers that hinder their learning success. As MOOCs increase accessibility and democratize education, it’s particularly important to address the barriers women face in these platforms. By analyzing 338,459 negative reviews from 8,067 IT and software courses offered by the MOOC provider Udemy, we explored the differences in how men and women experience these online learning environments. Our analysis was complemented by ten expert interviews, which helped us develop key propositions to explain these gender-based differences and derive guidelines to overcome them. Our results reveal that men and women criticize similar topics in IT courses, demonstrating that they do not belong to different user groups. However, differences between male and female reviews emerge within each topic. These differences are reflected in different communication styles, demands and areas of emphasis, shaped by gender-specific backgrounds, socialization processes and stereotypes. To overcome these differences, we propose seven guidelines drawing form Stereotype Threat Theory for designing gender-inclusive online courses that focus on inclusive communication and representation, creating supportive learning environments, and implementing high-quality, bias-aware educational practices. Aiming to foster greater participation and success for women in computer science
Humane work design: How does the digitization of work change core work characteristics in different occupations?
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As digital tools are used more and more and work is done from home, working conditions are changing. This article analyzes these changes using eight cases and identifies similarities and differences. Predicting learning, well-being, and work performance makes it possible to assess undesirable developments in work design. Practical relevance : By paying attention to potential undesirable developments, countermeasures can be taken, such as improving communication and social support for distributed work, or adapting the design of AI systems. @Wenn vermehrt digitale Tools eingesetzt werden und Arbeit im Homeoffice stattfindet, verändern sich Arbeitsbedingungen. Der vorliegende Beitrag analysiert diese Veränderungen anhand von 8 Fällen und arbeitet Gemeinsamkeiten und Unterschiede heraus. Die Prognose von Lernen, Wohlbefinden und Arbeitsleistung erlaubt es, Fehlentwicklungen in der Arbeitsgestaltungen abzuschätzen. Praktische Relevanz : Durch Aufmerksamkeit auf mögliche Fehlentwicklungen können Gegenmaßnahmen getroffen werden, etwa zur Verbesserung der Kommunikation und sozialen Unterstützung bei ortsverteilter Arbeit, oder der angepassten Gestaltung von KI-Systemen
Transforming Urban Landscapes: Circular Economy Practices in European Cities
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The transition to a circular economy (CE) is a cornerstone of sustainable urban development, directly addressing environmental, social, and economic challenges. This article explores the varied approaches to CE adopted by six European cities - Guimarães, Lisbon, Riga, Oulu, Munich, and Malmö - highlighting their innovative initiatives in digitalization, awareness raising, governance schemes, waste management, public procurements, mapping of flows, and the exploitation of unused spaces. By analyzing these domains, this article provides actionable insights for cities aiming to enhance sustainability through CE practices
Eurozone governance and the German demand and growth regimes, 1999–2024
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This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the German demand and growth regimes from 1999 to 2024 within the framework of Eurozone macroeconomic governance for three sub-periods: 1999–2009, 2010–2020, and 2021–2024. Applying a national income and financial accounting decomposition approach, we find an extreme export-led mercantilist (ELM) regime during the first period, a moderated ELM regime in the second period, and a weakly export-led (WEL) regime in the third period. Also, the application of the Sraffian supermultiplier growth accounting approach indicates that exports were the primary autonomous growth driver, though with a declining trend over time. The examination of the structural underpinnings of Germany’s export-led regime reveals that exports are mainly in capital goods and medium to high-technology products with a high income elasticity of demand and thus rely on growth dynamics in the respective destination countries. The analysis of the German macroeconomic policy regime shaped by the Eurozone governance system finds for the first period a restrictive macroeconomic policy stance that suppressed domestic demand, making exports the primary growth driver. The second period saw a more expansionary stance, leading to a less extreme ELM regime. This trend continued into the third period, leading to a WEL regime with balanced domestic and external growth drivers. The paper concludes by advocating for a coordinated Eurozone macroeconomic policy mix that generates sufficient domestic demand and imports to balance the structurally shaped German export dynamics and to prevent regional and global current account imbalances.E11;E12;E61;O5
Is there a compression of morbidity and does it vary across social strata among older European adults? A retrospective cohort study of two waves 15 years apart
No full text[Background:] Compression of morbidity may be linked to belonging to particular social strata defined by intersections of age, gender, migration and occupation. Extending the approach by Crimmins and Beltrán-Sánchez, we investigated compression of morbidity, defined as reduced socially stratified prevalence of self-reported heart disease, stroke, cancer, diabetes and functional limitations, using two samples 15 years apart. [Methods:] We used data of eleven European countries from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), comparing 2004 (N = 29,224) and 2019/2020 (N = 46,498) samples, to apply multilevel logistic regressions within an intersectional MAIHDA (Multilevel Analysis of Individual Heterogeneity and Discriminatory Accuracy) framework. [Findings:] Overall patterns did not show compression of morbidity in terms of lower prevalence after 15 years, but intersectional analyses revealed specific compression patterns. Certain strata showed reduced heart disease prevalence, with older men with migration background experiencing the strongest declines from initially high levels. However, no social stratum showed morbidity compression for stroke. Blue-collar low-skill men exhibited particularly increased cancer prevalence across waves. Among older men, diabetes prevalence increased substantially. Reductions in functional limitation prevalence emerged across waves for all female groups aged 70–79, and for blue-collar high-skill men. [Interpretation:] Overall, we found that compression of morbidity was largely intersectionally stratified, evidencing the impact of social inequalities in healthy life expectancy. This calls for stratified preventive measures at public health level in the future. [Funding:] Einstein Foundation Berlin (EZ-2019–555–2)
Risk aversion in the Eurozone
No full textWe propose a New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model where a risk aversion shock enters a separable utility function. We analyze five periods from 1971 through 2011, each lasting for 20 years, to follow over time the dynamics of several parameters such as the risk aversion parameter; the Taylor rule coefficients; and the role of the risk aversion shock in output, inflation, interest rate, and real money balances in the Eurozone. Our analysis suggests that risk aversion was a more important component of output and real money balance dynamics between 2006 and 2011 than it was between 1971 and 2006, at least in the short run