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A new geopolitical positioning of South Africa: Strategies for a modern "Swing State"
No full textThe evolving geopolitical landscape has placed South Africa at a crossroads, torn between its historical ties to the West and its growing relationships with BRICS+ nations, particularly China and Russia. The country's recent political shift, marked by the African National Congress (ANC) losing its parliamentary majority, has intensified debates over its international alignment. As a "Global Swing State," South Africa must navigate a complex global order by balancing cooperation with both power blocs-mainly Europe and China-while maintaining independence. A pragmatic foreign policy-one that prioritises economic development, democratic stability, and institutional reform- will be crucial in positioning South Africa as a bridge between the Global South and the West
Manager characteristics and the informativeness of banks’ loan loss provisioning
No full textAbstract
This study investigates the role of individual managers in banks’ financial reporting. We exploit the connectedness between different managers and find that individual bank managers explain approximately 19 percent of banks’ loan loss provisions. This observation is consistent with the substantial reporting discretion that individual bank managers use in the estimation of loan loss provisions and that is increasingly subject to financial stability concerns by prudential supervisors. Our results suggest that these concerns are valid, as individual management discretion is associated with greater discretionary loan loss provisions and proxies for opportunistic accounting, especially the reduction in the timeliness of these provisions and the lesser degree to which the allowance for credit losses maps into future charge-offs. These findings are relevant for the design of regulatory measures aimed at limiting the managerial influence on accounting choices in banking and can inform debates on the desirability of discretion within the reporting process of banks.M14;M41;M48;M52;G2
Tax expenditures and redistribution - The case of Portugal
No full textThis paper assesses the fiscal and distributional effects of personal income tax expenditures in Portugal using EUROMOD and 2022 EU-SILC microdata. We compare the 2023 tax-benefit system with a counterfactual scenario in which tax expenditures are removed to estimate first-round impacts. We find that tax expenditures account for almost 40% of personal income tax revenues and predominantly benefit middle- and higher-income households, with large variation in redistributive effectiveness across instruments. While the Net Minimum Income Guarantee is progressive and cost-efficient in reducing inequality, most work- and pensionrelated allowances deliver limited equity gains, suggesting scope for reform
Corporate Environmental Sustainability Via Stakeholder Collaboration: Insights from Classical Institutional Economics
No full textAbstract
Stakeholder scholarship has made significant progress in identifying the factors that contribute to the successful impact of stakeholder collaborations on corporate environmental sustainability. An issue that has received less attention in this scholarship is an analysis of cases where stakeholder collaborations fail or encounter difficulties. To address this issue, we combine stakeholder theory with the unconventional perspective of classical institutional economics, which offers a critical view of corporate behavior. On this basis, we develop a conceptual framework that distinguishes four types of corporate behavior, ranging from disinterest in environmental protection to effective environmental behavior through managing for stakeholders. This framework allows us to formulate four propositions extending the extant stakeholder-theoretic analysis of corporate environmental sustainability. Our argument accommodates both successful and not so successful cases of stakeholder collaboration, strengthens the institutional economics foundation of stakeholder theory, and provides practical implications for corporate managers and policymakers
Geopolitical conflicts and economic disruptions: Germany’s China policy under pressure
No full textAbstract
The European Union’s policy on China provided the foundation for Germany’s ‘Strategy on China’, published in 2023. By framing China as ‘partner, competitor, and systemic rival’, the EU’s 2019 policy signalled flexibility. However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the attempt to weaponise energy imports in 2022 shifted the EU’s focus towards economic security and a ‘de-risking’ approach to China. Germany’s strategy revealed open dissension on two levels: within the ‘traffic light’ coalition government, and between government policy and the interests of German business. Business representatives, pointing to a weakening domestic economy and structural challenges in major industries, questioned the de-risking approach. This internal dissent hindered the development of a consistent China policy and obstructed effective responses to mounting economic and geopolitical challenges. Following the February 2025 election, a new coalition government was formed with the stated aim of reviving the domestic economy and pursuing a more assertive foreign policy. It announced a revision of the China strategy, continuing to follow the principle of de-risking. The first section of this paper examines the formation of Germany’s China strategy. The second section explores geopolitical and industrial factors. The third section analyses the response from German businesses. The fourth section discusses the current government’s approach to China
Identifying nested preference structures in choice models based on stated choice data
No full textAbstract
Nowadays, choice modelling based on stated choice data is widely used for assessing consumer preferences, with the hierarchical Bayes multinomial logit (HB-MNL) model being typically embedded as choice model for preference estimation. The HB-MNL model accounts for individual preference heterogeneity and is therefore able to weaken the Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives property (IIA) the standard MNL model suffers from. The IIA property states that the ratio of choice probabilities of two alternatives remains constant independent of the availability of further alternatives and hence implies an often unrealistic proportional substitution pattern among alternatives. The IIA property can also be addressed by applying nested multinomial logit (NMNL) models, which explicitly allow for a representation of different degrees of similarity between subsets of alternatives (nests). In this paper, we consider a HB-NMNL model which combines both the idea of nested market structures and heterogeneous consumer preferences with the expectation to handle the IIA property even better. We propose an extensive simulation study in which we compare the performance of the established HB-MNL model to the HB-NMNL model under varying experimental conditions for model fit, prediction accuracy, and parameter recovery. Our findings from this Monte Carlo study are twofold: first, both types of models perform rather close with regard to predictive validity (and model fit). This result is quite surprising and provides strong support for the use of the less complex HB-MNL model. Second, as could be expected, the HB-NMNL model shows advantages in terms of parameter recovery which is an important criterion for product design decision-making. We further present results from applying and comparing both models in an empirical study for summer tires. Model estimation is carried out using the publicly available R software package RSGHB .M31;C11;C1
Continuing Vocational Educational Training, Self-Directed Ageism, and Extending Working Lives: Evidence from the German Ageing Survey
No full textAbstract
Continuing vocational education and training (CVET) is essential for prolonging working lives, as it improves the qualifications and skills of older workers, helps to prevent skill mismatches, and increases their employability. Research indicates that access to training throughout life is unequally distributed in society, with certain labour market groups, such as those with higher education and better working conditions, benefiting more. This disparity results in social inequality and long-term negative effects on the employment trajectories of disadvantaged older workers. The impact of internalised ageist stereotypes regarding older workers’ ability to acquire knowledge later in life is underexplored but may significantly affect their motivation to participate in CVET and indirectly influence their labour market participation in later life. Utilising data from three waves of the German Ageing Survey (DEAS) covering the years 2014 to 2021, descriptive statistics and mediation analyses are employed to investigate the unequal distribution of CVET participation among older workers and to examine how self-directed ageism—specifically, one’s perceived ability to learn—affects the degree of CVET participation and subsequent employment trajectories in later life. The findings reveal differences in the level of CVET participation among older workers and highlight the role of ageist self-stereotyping in CVET engagement and late working-life employment trajectories. To extend working lives, policymakers, trade unions, employers, and stakeholders must provide CVET opportunities for older workers while actively combating age stereotypes to encourage participation and maximise training benefits. @Kontinuierliche berufliche Weiterbildung (CVET) ist entscheidend für die Verlängerung der Erwerbskarrieren, da sie die Qualifikationen und Fähigkeiten älterer Arbeitnehmerinnen und Arbeitnehmer verbessert, die Passung zu sich wandelnden Kompetenzanforderungen erhöht und somit insgesamt die Beschäftigungsfähigkeit älterer Arbeitnehmender erhält. Forschungen zeigen, dass der Zugang zu Weiterbildung im Erwerbsverlauf ungleich verteilt ist, wobei bestimmte Arbeitsmarktgruppen, wie Personen mit höherer Bildung und besseren Arbeitsbedingungen, stärker profitieren. Diese Ungleichheit kann zu sozialer Benachteiligung und zu langfristigen negativen Auswirkungen auf die Erwerbskarrieren von älteren Arbeitnehmenden führen. In diesem Kontext sind die Auswirkungen negativer, internalisierter Stereotype auf die eigene Lernfähigkeit im höheren Alter wenig erforscht, obwohl Studien zeigen, dass sie die Motivation zur Teilnahme an CVET erheblich negativ beeinflussen und somit indirekt die Beschäftigungschancen im späteren Erwerbsleben beeinträchtigen. Anhand von Daten aus drei Wellen der Deutschen Alterssurvey (DEAS) von 2014 bis 2021 verwenden wir deskriptive Statistiken und Mediationsanalysen, um die ungleiche Verteilung der CVET-Teilnahme unter älteren Arbeitnehmerinnen und Arbeitnehmern zu untersuchen. Wir analysieren, wie internalisierte Altersstereotype – konkret bezogen auf das eigene wahrgenommene Lernvermögen – die CVET-Teilnahme und den anschließenden späteren Beschäftigungsstatus beeinflussen. Die Ergebnisse zeigen Unterschiede in Bezug auf die Teilnahme an CVET Maßnahmen zwischen verschiedenen Gruppen älterer Arbeitnehmenden. Darüber hinaus verdeutlichen sie, dass negative internalisierte Altersstereotypen die Teilnahme an CVET beeinträchtigen und dass diese Teilnahme wiederum einen Einfluss auf den Erwerbsstatus im späteren Erwerbsleben hat. Um Erwerbskarrieren zu verlängern, sollten politische Entscheidungsträgerinnen und -träger, Gewerkschaften, Firmen und weitere Arbeitsmarktakteure CVET-Möglichkeiten auch für ältere Arbeitnehmende bereitstellen. Darüber hinaus sollte aktiv gegen Altersstereotype angekämpft werden, um die Teilnahme an Weiterbildung zu fördern und die daraus resultierenden positiven Erwerbseffekte für ältere Arbeitnehmerinnen und -nehmer zu maximieren
Parental Separation and Children’s Education - Changes Over Time?
No full textThe association between parental separation and children’s education has been widely studied, but mainly at a single time point and for marital dissolution only. We examine whether the (generally negative) association has changed across cohorts for several educational outcomes and whether the association differs by parental union type (marriage, cohabitation) and socioeconomic family background (parental education).We use Finnish total population register data. We focus on child cohorts born between 1987 and 2003 ( N = 967,242) and analyse grade point averages, secondary education and tertiary education using linear regression and linear probability models with standard errors clustered within families.The association between parental separation and educational achievement is negative and has remained similar across the birth cohorts. Differences according to parental union type and socioeconomic family background are rather small. The stability of the association over time suggests that the consequences of parental separation on children’s education have not changed over time, and they do not depend much on parental union type or family background
Resilience Orientation in Bioeconomy Policies - A Global Comparative Analysis
No full textAbstract
Resilience and in particular resilience-oriented bioeconomy policies have become essential for dealing with long- and short-term stresses such as climate change, pandemics, and geopolitical conflicts. Meanwhile, concerns are growing about the resilience of the bioeconomy, but the scholarly attention given to the resilience orientation of bioeconomy policies worldwide has been limited. To fill this gap, we build on the concept of resilience, the Resilience Assessment Tool, and the new policy design approach to study whether bioeconomy policies enhance the resilience capacities of bio-based production systems, namely robustness, adaptability and transformability. Our systematic content analysis of 78 national bioeconomy policy documents from 50 countries shows that bioeconomic policies are characterized mainly by adaptability and transformability. Our descriptive statistical analyses indicate that these two resilience capacities and resilience orientation at large vary strongly and widely across documents. Our correlational analysis identifies political, economic, and environmental factors that begin to explain this strong cross-case variation. Our findings contribute to a better understanding of the role of resilience in (bioeconomy) policy making and the strengths and weaknesses of bioeconomy policy designs with regard to the resilience capacities. In doing so, we aim to contribute to the design of inclusive and innovative policies that support sustainable solutions, ecological standards, and broad stakeholder involvement
Following the blind? Database coding policies and the case of IFRS noncompliance
No full textAbstract
We present a case illustrating the pitfalls of insufficient disclosure of commercial databases' coding policies. We replicate the finding in the literature that a nontrivial percentage of firms mandated to adopt IFRS ignore this obligation. Specifically, Pownall and Wieczynska (2018, Contemporary Accounting Research , 35 (2), 1029–1066) report more than 3,000 cases, or 10% of all mandated firms in the European Union. When using primary data sources (applicable local regulations and firms' annual reports), we find that noncompliance with IFRS adoption is nonexistent in the one‐to‐one replication using the same firm‐year observations. We attribute the prior misperception to the commercial database's insufficient disclosure of a misleading coding policy of the consolidation item. We also show that no other data provider correctly captures consolidation status, which determines whether firms must report under IFRS. In response to this gap, we showcase the application of bidirectional encoder representations from transformers (BERT) models for extracting the consolidation status and offer guidance for coding IFRS‐mandated firms. Our article underscores the need to exercise caution when using secondary data sources