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Optimizing Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting : Evaluating the Impact of Data-Driven Generation Shift Keys on Power Transfer Distribution Factor Estimation
No full textThe ongoing transformation of the Nordic power system, driven by the increasing share of renewable generation and the implementation of Flow-Based Market Coupling (FBMC) in October 2024, has introduced new challenges for electricity price forecasting. To improve short-term price models, market participants require an accurate representation of network sensitivities, which depend on the estimation of Power Transfer Distribution Factors (PTDFs). A key input in these calculations is Generation Shift Keys (GSKs), which define whether a node responds to a price change and participates in a change of a bidding zone’s net position. The choice of a GSK strategy directly influences how PTDFs are represented in market models, thus impacting the capacity allocation and market results. This thesis, conducted at Vattenfall AB, investigates how data-driven GSKs based on actual generation data affect the accuracy of zonal PTDF calculations within the Nordic day-ahead electricity market. Three time-resolution levels – monthly, weekly, and daily – were evaluated and compared against a simplified flat GSK reference. Each GSK was computed using hourly production data and complemented with internal capacity documentation. The PTDFs were calculated using Vattenfall’s grid model based on PyPSA which is an open-source framework for simulating and optimizing electrical networks, and performance was assessed using the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) between modeled and official PTDFs from the Joint Allocation Office (JAO). The results show that all three data-driven approaches outperform the flat reference by improving PTDF accuracy across most bidding zones. Among them, the monthly GSKs achieve the best overall balance between accuracy and numerical stability, while the weekly and daily GSKs capture short-term variations more dynamically but at the cost of increased volatility. These findings suggest that even relatively simple, data-based GSK formulations can enhance the reliability of power flow representation in flow-based models. Improved PTDF estimation can in turn contribute to more accurate flow-based capacity calculations and, ultimately, to more reliable short-term electricity price forecasts
The Development of a European Registry for Facial Dysostosis Syndromes : A Delphi-Guided Approach
No full textFacial dysostosis syndromes (FDS) are rare congenital conditions that significantly impact facial function and appearance. At the time of this writing, standardised monitoring protocols for FDS are lacking, hampering research, and evidence-based care. Thus, a comprehensive dataset was developed within the European Reference Network for Rare and Complex Craniofacial Anomalies (ERN CRANIO). Candidate data elements were identified through a systematic literature review (1985–2024) and supplemented with elements from existing ERN CRANIO datasets and expert panel suggestions. A Delphi survey was then conducted among 61 clinicians and 3 patient representatives to assess each element’s relevance and reliability using a 9-point Likert scale. A subsequent hybrid consensus meeting with the expert panel shaped the final dataset, ensuring comprehensive coverage, avoiding overlap, and determining the appropriate timing for data collection. Of 200 data elements that entered the Delphi voting, 98 were strongly recommended, 102 scored neutral, and none were strongly discouraged. Ultimately, 110 elements were included, organised into 2 levels: Level 1, comprising exclusively patient-reported and parent-reported outcome measures; and Level 2, encompassing patient characteristics, treatment information, clinical outcomes, and imaging/diagnostics. This newly developed dataset marks the first international registry for FDS, offering considerable potential for collaborative research, cross-centre comparisons, and substantial improvements in care for patients with FDS worldwide. Real-world implementation will be essential to evaluate its feasibility and guide further refinements
Integrating traditional medicine into antimicrobial resistance education : Community-centric preparedness in Zimbabwe
No full textAntimicrobial resistance (AMR) constitutes a growing risk to global health, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) like Zimbabwe. AMR education has often focused on prevention, with limited emphasis on preparedness, especially in community-based approaches. Education and practice frequently overlook how preparedness can limit the spread of resistance once it has emerged. Traditional medicine, a key component of primary health care in Zimbabwe, may offer culturally grounded approaches to AMR preparedness. This study explores the role of traditional medicine in AMR preparedness in Zimbabwe. Using a participatory research workshop method, it included 25 health practitioners (medical doctors, nurses, and pharmacists) from two major teaching hospitals in Harare. The workshops explored practitioners’ perceptions of traditional medicine in relation to AMR education and preparedness. Generated research data included audio recordings, which were analysed thematically. The participatory method enabled knowledge co-creation among practitioners during the discussions. Three themes emerged in the results: (1) traditional medicine is central to community healthcare access and early-stage treatment, especially in rural areas, reducing the need for antimicrobials; (2) it complements conventional medical practices by supporting health management and resilience, reducing antimicrobial dependency; and (3) traditional practitioners, embedded in communities, are key in disease surveillance through early outbreak detection. Recurring across these themes is the patient- and community-centric character of traditional medicine that supports AMR preparedness. This paper illustrates how traditional medicine is a crucial but often underutilized resource for preparedness in AMR education, offering community-based and culturally adapted approaches in Zimbabwe. Integrating traditional medicine into AMR education could strengthen health system resilience and public health outcomes, particularly in LMICs. AMR policy efforts should promote integration with conventional practices to leverage traditional knowledge in building more resilient and effective approaches to resistance
Plasma density variations in the ionosphere over Sweden and their effects on radio scintillations and delays
No full textThe effectiveness of the ever increasing use of GNSS is hindered by the ionosphere in two ways, delay and scintillations. Using Lantmäteriet’s Ionosphere monitor, the average uncertainty in different regions was plotted. These measurements were then compared to the changes in the ionospheric electron density as measured by ESA’s Swarm satellites. In addition to this the uncertainty measurements were also compared to solar activity using the f10.7 solar index. It was found that the uncertainties in the southern regions, that being Svealand and Götaland, correlated to the plasma density which sees a peak around noon local time while the northern regions, that being northern and southern Norrland, correlated strongly to the standard deviation of the plasma density which sees a peak at around midnight. It was also found that the uncertainties in all regions correlated to the 11-year solar cycle
Contemporaneous Stress in Taiwan : Evidence for Orogen-Parallel Extension and Lower Crustal Extrusion
No full textSyn-to late-orogenic extension caused by gravitational collapse is a process that has been documented in most orogens. In this paper, we investigate the contemporaneous stress field in Taiwan to examine syn-orogenic extensional faulting and the possible gravitational collapse modes by which it is taking place. We use a new, large, well-constrained, clustered earthquake focal mechanism data set from which we calculate the stress field (sigma 1, sigma 2, sigma 3), the direction of the maximum compressive horizontal stress (S H), and determine the most likely fault plane orientations and kinematics. Our results show that, in the upper 21 km of the crust, shearing, with lesser compression are the dominant stress regimes in the Western Foothills and Hsuehshan Range, resulting in a complex interaction of strike-slip (with transpression and transtension) and thrust faulting. Extension is predominately localized in the upper 14 km of the crust in the Central Range (CR), where it is roughly orogen-parallel. S H and the best-fit fault planes in the CR strike roughly NW-SE, at a high angle to the structural and topographic grain. At depths greater than 21 km, compression and shear, with transpression and minor extension are the dominant stress regimes throughout Taiwan. Along the eastern flank of the mountain belt, mixed compression and shear stress regimes at depths greater than 50 km are related to the Manila and Ryukyu subduction zones. Our new results allow, for the first time, to characterize an ongoing, large-scale, orogen-parallel extension in Taiwan related to lateral extrusion with free-boundary gravitational collapse
Time-trends in body mass index, and overweight and obesity as independent risk factors for diabetes angiopathy in young females with type 1 diabetes : - A nationwide study in Sweden
No full textAims To examine time-trends in BMI-distributions of young females with and without type 1 diabetes (T1D), with focus on the upper half of the distribution i.e., the median and above, and Methods Population-based cohort study of 3,473 females with T1D, 16–35 years, identified in the Swedish National Diabetes Registers, January 2005 to October 2015, and 8,487 females from the background population. BMI-distributions were examined using kernel density estimates and quantile regression. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) for angiopathy in overweight/obese subjects were estimated with adjusted Cox regression. Results The BMI-distribution in females with T1D was right shifted to that of the background population (p < 0.001). The 90th percentile and median BMI increased equally overtime in both groups, but females with T1D started from a higher baseline. In T1D, HRs were significantly increased for any angiopathy in individuals with obesity (adj HR 1.37 (CI 1.14–1.64)), and for retinopathy; adj HRs (CIs): overweight; 1.15 (1.02–1.29), obesity; 1.30 (1.08–1.56). Conclusions Females with T1D have increasing BMI overtime and are heavier than females without T1D. Overweight and obesity are by themselves risk factors for angiopathy.Previous article in issueCorrection in: “Time-trends in body mass index, and overweight andobesity as independent risk factors for diabetes angiopathy in youngfemales with type 1 diabetes – A nationwide study in Sweden” [Diab. Res.Clin. Pract. 204 (2023) 110899] DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.diabres.2025.112276</p
Doing Digital Research at KBLab : A Practical Introduction to Using the National Library of Sweden’s Data Lab
No full textThe emergence of digital heritage data and the rapid development of new AI tools for computational analysis are transforming GLAM institutions, particularly in the design of digital research infrastructure. Researchers in the digital humanities and social sciences increasingly expect to access collections at unprecedented scales. This chapter addresses such expectations by providing a hands-on guide to KBLab, the data lab at the National Library of Sweden (KB). It outlines the lab’s resources, including access to KB’s digitized collections and AI models like KB-BERT, and showcases innovative development projects like Bildsök, which makes visual archives more accessible. The chapter also details the steps to initiate research collaborations and discusses best practices for utilizing KBLab’s tools effectively. By bridging technical insights with practical applications, it serves as a comprehensive starting point for conducting large-scale digital research at KB and beyond
Professor Helmut Acker (1939-2025) : A Pioneer in Oxygen Sensing and Molecular Physiology
No full textStreams of contestation, streams of cooperation : Toward a research agenda on water and peace
No full textWater stress is intensifying under climate change, demographic growth, and socio-political pressures, raising urgent questions about how shared waters are governed. This article has a dual aim: to take stock of scholarship on water, conflict, and cooperation, and to frame the contributions of this Special Issue on “Water, Environment, and Security.” We combine a bibliometric mapping (2010–2024) with a thematic synthesis to trace field-level trends and recurring debates. The review highlights seven focal areas: power and hydro-hegemony; river-basin organizations; climate change framing on compound risks; environmental peacebuilding across scales; technological innovations; justice and equity; and the targeting of water in war. We show that conflict and cooperation frequently coexist and are mediated less by hydrology than by institutions, power relations, and inclusion. As a whole, the Special Issue advances this research agenda through diverse epistemologies and methods, conceptual frameworks, comparative and ethnographic studies, and large-N analyses, linking outcomes from households to basins. Looking ahead, we outline research frontiers in water research, including open hydrology data, justice-centered governance, war impacts, and translating transboundary commitments into local practice. Together, these insights point to pathways for more equitable, resilient cooperation over shared waters
Vitamin D pathway as a multi-level predictor of COVID-19 severity and mortality : Integrating serum levels, FokI (rs2228570) VDR polymorphism, and lung tissue expression
No full textBackground: Vitamin D is a known immunomodulator, but its predictive value in COVID-19 remains incompletely understood. This study investigates the role of vitamin D across molecular, biochemical, and histopathological levels to evaluate its association with COVID-19 severity and mortality. Methods: A prospective case-control study was conducted in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq from May to October 2021. Ninety-five confirmed COVID-19 patients (75 survivors, 20 non-survivors) and 75 healthy controls were enrolled. Serum 25(OH)D levels were quantified by ELISA. Clinical severity was assessed using CURB-65, NEWS, and SOFA scores. Genotyping for the FokI (rs2228570) polymorphism in the VDR gene was performed via allele-specific PCR. Lung tissue from five survivors (biopsy) and five non-survivors (autopsy) underwent immunohistochemical staining to evaluate VDR expression. Result: Serum vitamin D concentrations were markedly reduced in non-survivors (20.34 ± 0.46 ng/mL) relative to survivors (40.11 ± 0.28 ng/mL, p < 0.001). Vitamin D exhibited a negative correlation with CURB-65 (r = -0.828), NEWS (r = -0.794), and SOFA (r = -0.762) scores. Regression analysis established that vitamin D was independently associated with disease severity in our population. The TT genotype of the FokI VDR polymorphism correlated with markedly reduced vitamin D levels and elevated severity scores. Mortality exhibited a strong association with the TT genotype (OR = 10.29, 95 % CI: 2.204-49.19, p = 0.003) and the T allele (OR = 3.923, p = 0.0006). ROC analysis determined a vitamin D threshold of ≤ 20.56 ng/mL as indicative of mortality (AUC = 0.784, p < 0.0001). Immunohistochemistry demonstrated elevated VDR expression in lung tissues of deceased COVID-19 patients relative to VDR-negative controls. Conclusion: This study indicates that serum vitamin D levels, VDR gene polymorphism (rs2228570), and lung tissue VDR expression are strongly correlated with the severity and mortality of COVID-19. These findings validate the clinical use of vitamin D and VDR profiling may have associative markers and prospective treatment targets in the management of COVID-19