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Forecasting Exchange Rate Dynamics: A Comparative Study of Traditional Econometric Models and Machine Learning Models
No full textA research report submitted in fulfillment of the requirements for the Master of Economic Science, in the Faculty of Commerce Law and Management, School of Economics and Finance, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2025Accurate exchange rate forecasting is crucial for economic policy, risk management, and financial decision-making. This study compares traditional hybrid econometric models, specifically the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARIMAX-GARCH), with machine learning approaches, including Random Forest, Multi-Layer Perceptron, and Long Short-Term Memory networks, to predict the South African Rand (ZAR) against major global currencies: the United States Dollar (USD), Euro (EUR), British Pound (GBP), Japanese Yen (JPY), and Chinese Yuan (CNY). Using daily exchange rate data from 2000 to 2024, model performance is evaluated based on Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (sMAPE), and Mean Directional Accuracy (MDA). The results indicate that no single model consistently outperforms across all currency pairs. The ARIMAX-GARCH model excels in trend prediction, the Random Forest model balances predictive accuracy and adaptability, the Multi- Layer Perceptron model minimizes absolute errors but struggles with directional accuracy, and the Long Short-Term Memory model captures long-term dependencies but underperforms in volatile markets. These findings highlight the need for hybrid forecasting models that integrate machine learning and econometric techniques while incorporating macroeconomic indicators to enhance predictive reliability.MM202
Social media and digital flourishing in South Africa
No full textA research report submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Arts in the field of Social and Psychological Research in the Department of Psychology, Faculty of Humanities, School of Human and Community Development, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2025The global shift towards digitalisation has seen the prominence of social media increase throughout the twenty-first century, while the rising prevalence of reported mental illness in the face of this has promoted research into the association between social media use and people’s psychological well-being (Chekole & Abate, 2021; Richter et al., 2019; Sherif, 2024; Wongkoblap et al., 2017). Research on this topic has predominantly focused on the negative effects social media has on users’ psychological well-being, however it is imperative that the positive effects of social media use, in addition to the aspects or features of this use that lead to these effects, be investigated in order to provide a comprehensive account of this phenomenon. Therefore, the current study explored the associative and predictive relationships between digital flourishing, a novel conception of online psychological well-being, and different aspects of social media use (types of social media use, perceived social media literacy, and motives for social media use) in a sample of 207 South African young adults. To investigate these relationships, a quantitative, non-experimental, correlational, and cross-sectional research design was employed with data collected using an online survey. The survey consisted of questionnaires that assessed participants’ demographic characteristics, general social media use, passive and active use of social media, rational and emotional use of social media, perceived social media literacy, and motives for using social media. The sample was obtained using convenience and snowball sampling and the participants were mostly female (75.8%), mostly full-time students (73.4%), and mostly aged 18 to 25 (65.2%). On average, participants belonged to 5.34 social media sites, and a majority (69.1%) spent between two and six hours on social media per day. The data was analysed using descriptive statistics, bivariate correlations, and multiple regressions. The sample reported moderate levels of digital flourishing and perceived social media literacy with their social media use being more passive and rational/routine in nature. They predominantly used social media for information seeking and connectedness, academic, and entertainment purposes. For the associative relationships, this study found that within this sample the different types of social media use (i.e. active, passive, rational and emotional use) were either weakly or moderately positively associated with all the dimensions of digital flourishing outside of self-control. Perceived social media literacy and its competencies were either weakly or moderately positively associated with all five dimensions of digital flourishing. All nine of the motives for social media use were weakly or moderately associated with digital flourishing, while only the escapism and the following and monitoring others motives were negatively associated with digital flourishing. For the predictive relationships, this study found that the different dimensions of digital flourishing were predicted by all the aspects of social media except one form of active social media use (posting) and two motives for social media use (academic purposes and dating and friendship. Furthermore, the escapism, following and monitoring others, and entertainment motives were the only aspects of social media use in this study that negatively predicted different dimensions of digital flourishing. This study was the first to investigate digital flourishing in a South African context, expanding current knowledge on the novel conception and theoretical framework of digital flourishing. Furthermore, in identifying the aspects of social media use that were positively associated with and predicted digital flourishing, the study ultimately contributes to the limited literature on the positive effects of social media on psychological well-being.MMM202
Comparison of old and new treatment regimen for Cryptococcal Meningitis within the induction phase at Klerksdorp/Tshepong Hospital Complex, a retrospective audit
No full textA research report submitted in fulfillment of the requirements for the Master of Medicine, in the Faculty of Health Sciences, School of Medicine, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2025Background Cryptococcal meningitis causes substantial morbidity and mortality in people living with HIV(LWH), especially in sub-Saharan Africa. Appropriate therapy with effective and safe regimens mitigates consequences of cryptococcal meningitis. Objectives This study compares mortality rates during and after the induction phase between the prior and current regimens for treating cryptococcal meningitis. Methods. In this retrospective review, we included adults LWH diagnosed with cryptococcal meningitis, who received either amphotericin B 1mg/kg/day with fluconazole (1200mg) for 14 days -old regimen - or amphotericin B (1mg/kg/day) with flucytosine(100mg/kg/day) in the first week followed by fluconazole (1200mg) in the second week-new regimen. We evaluated differences in mortality during and after the induction phase and compared characteristics and side effects between the groups using descriptive statistics. Results From a potential total group of 300 patients, we included the data of 91 patients between Jan 2015 to Dec 2022; 29 (31.87%) received the old regimen while 62 (68.13%) received the new regimen. All patients had laboratory-confirmed cerebrospinal fluid evidence of cryptococcal meningitis. After the start of induction , there were seven deaths among the patients treated with the old regimen ,compared to four deaths in the group treated with the new regimen. Conclusion. Both regimens demonstrated safety : however ,our findings indicate that the old regimen was less effective than the new regimen.. Moreover the new regimen’s potential for reduced hospital stay suggests preference for its use compared to the old 4 regimenMM202
Evaluating strategic leadership factors contributing to middle management employee retention in a South African mining company
No full textA research report submitted in fulfillment of the requirements for the Master of Management in the field of Digital Business, in the Faculty of Commerce Law and Management, Wits Business School, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2025Background: The South African mining sector plays a pivotal role in the national economy but faces persistent challenges in retaining middle management employees. These professionals are critical for operational efficiency, regulatory compliance, and achieving strategic objectives. High turnover rates, driven by demanding work conditions, limited career growth, and insufficient leadership support, necessitate an investigation into the role of strategic leadership in employee retention. Aim: This study examines the impact of strategic leadership—specifically transformational, servant, and supportive leadership styles—on middle management retention in one South African mining company. The research identifies key leadership practices, organizational support mechanisms, and talent management strategies that mitigate turnover and enhance workforce stability. Methodology: A qualitative case study approach was employed, utilizing semi-structured interviews with 15 middle managers and 3 top managers. Data were analyzed using thematic analysis, and findings were triangulated with organizational records and existing literature to ensure credibility and depth. Results: The findings indicate that transformational and servant leadership styles significantly enhance middle managers’ job satisfaction and commitment. Middle managers emphasized the importance of transparent communication, participative decision-making, structured career development, and recognition programs. Conversely, top management prioritises long-term talent pipelines and strategic oversight. Significant barriers to retention include geographical isolation, limited local amenities, and career stagnation, while flexible work arrangements, leadership development programs, and an inclusive organizational culture emerge as effective retention strategies. Conclusion: Strategic leadership practices rooted in empathy, vision, and professional development are crucial in reducing turnover and fostering organizational resilience. Mining companies can strengthen middle management retention by addressing immediate job satisfaction drivers and long-term succession planning, ensuring operational stability and sustainable leadership pipelines.MM202
Modelling of MF2 Platinum Concentrators with Blended Feeds
No full textA research report submitted in fulfillment of the requirements for the Master of Science, in the Faculty of Engineering and the Built Environment, School of Chemical and Metallurgical Engineering, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2025This study presents a data-driven approach to modelling mill-float-mill-float (MF2) platinum concentrator performance when processing blended feeds of Merensky and UG2 ores. Conventional phenomenological models are often limited by data availability and delayed laboratory results, hindering timely decision-making in complex mineral processing environments. Using real plant data from Two Rivers Platinum, this research seeks to understand how the MF2 circuit is operated with and without blended feeds and apply machine learning (ML) algorithms to predict ore mineralogy and plant performance. After comprehensive data cleaning and feature selection, four ML models: Linear Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF), Extra Tree (ET), and k- Nearest Neighbours (kNN) were developed and evaluated. The ET algorithm achieved superior accuracy in predicting ore mineralogy, while RF was most effective in forecasting key plant performance indicators. Despite constraints in data granularity, particularly with weekly mineralogical data, the models demonstrated robust performance and potential for integration into production planning. These findings underscore the value of ML in enhancing metallurgical plant responsiveness and optimising recovery in MF2 circuits handling variable ore blends. The research advocates for more granular data collection to unlock the full potential of predictive modelling and highlights machine learning as a scalable tool for process control in the platinum mining sector using blended feeds.MM202
Managing cultural diversity for high teams’ performance in the PGM mining industry around the Brits Area
No full textA research report submitted in fulfillment of the requirements for the Master of Business Administration, in the Faculty of Commerce Law and Management, Wits Business School, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2025The Platinum Group Metals (PGM) mining industry, particularly in South Africa, operates in a highly diverse cultural environment. Managing this diversity is essential for improving team dynamics, productivity, and innovation. However, challenges such as language barriers, cultural conflicts, and limited awareness of diversity management principles hinder organizational performance in this sector. This study critically analyzes the management of cultural diversity within the PGM mining industry in the Brits Area, North West Province, South AfricaIt aims to understand the main factors affecting diversity management and its impact on team performance, thereafter proposing strategies for optimizing workforce inclusiveness and productivity. A qualitative approach was employed, focusing on interviews and focus groups with 21 participants, including senior managers, middle managers, human resources personnel, and team members from production and engineering departments. The study utilized thematic analysis to explore perceptions of diversity management, challenges encountered, and the effectiveness of current strategies. The findings revealed varying levels of awareness of diversity management across organizational hierarchies. Senior management showed high awareness, while operational teams had significantly lower levels of awareness. The main challenges included language barriers and cultural conflicts, which negatively affected communication and collaboration. Leadership commitment and diversity training were identified as necessary for fostering inclusion, though the effectiveness of these initiatives was inconsistent. The study concludes that to enhance team performance and organizational outcomes, PGM mining companies must adopt long-term diversity strategies that include tailored training programmes, measurable goals, and sustained leadership involvement. Addressing communication barriers and promoting cultural competence are critical to achieving these objectives.MM202
The effect of banking sector competition on firm creation in Sub-Saharan Africa
No full textA research report submitted in fulfillment of the requirements for the Master of Economic Science, in the Faculty of Commerce Law and Management, School of Economics and Finance, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2025This study determines the effect of banking sector competition on firm creation in Sub- Saharan Africa (SSA). The study uses country-level data from multiple World Bank databases covering the period 2006-2021. While the analysis initially included all 48 SSA countries, only 40 countries were part of the final sample due to missing data in 8 countries. For a comprehensive view of the banking sector competition in the region, we use two non- structural measures of competition (Boone Indicator and the Lerner Index) and one structural measure (The concentration ratio calculated based on the top five banks, CR5). The Fixed Effects (FE) model and the two-step system Generalized Method of Moment (system-GMM) estimators are used to estimate the results of the analysis. Employing two estimators enhances robustness of the findings and ensures their consistency across different estimation techniques. Our findings support the market power hypothesis for SSA countries, indicating a positive relationship between banking sector competition and firm creation. This supports the view that increased competition in the banking sector will lead to an increase in the rate of firm creation. Based on the results, economic growth and higher levels of education lead to opportunities for firm creation. Our findings also show that new firm registration rates are lower in upper-income countries compared to lower-income countries in the region. The findings from this paper can inform policy decisions around banking sector competition regulation, and support initiatives that leverage firm creation as a tool to address unemployment and poverty in the region.MM202
Identifying the transcriptional regulators of PXDN in the kidney and determining the impact of genetic variation in PXDN and its transcriptional regulators in chronic kidney disease in a South African cohort
No full textDissertation submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science, to the Faculty of Science, School of Molecular and Cell Biology, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2025Chronic kidney disease (CKD), characterised by impaired glomerular filtration, is a global heath challenge that disproportionately affects African populations. South Africa exhibits high CKD incidence (8.7%), with many cases observed in individuals lacking common risk factors. PXDN is expressed in kidney tissue, and its dysregulated expression leads to excessive PXDN deposition, contributing to renal fibrosis, a key driver of CKD progression. However, regulation of PXDN in the kidney and the impact of genetic variation in PXDN and its regulators on kidney function is largely unknown. Firstly, ChIP-seq data from ChIP-Atlas, comprising over 380 experiments across 36 transcriptional regulators, were analysed. Putative TF binding sites in the promoter and intron 1 region of PXDN were identified using ChIP-seeker. High-confidence binding sites were identified using FIMO with position-weight matrices from JASPAR, HOCOMOCO and Factorbook, and mapped using NCBI Genome Data Viewer. Thirteen high-confidence TF binding sites were mapped, and TFs were characterised based on their potential role in kidney function. Several TFs, such as SIX2 and CTCF, have established roles in kidney function, while others, including EGR2, ZEB1 andTWIST1, are implicated in kidney dysfunction. Secondly, to investigate whether variation in PXDN, its identified TFs and key kidney disease associated genes are implicated in kidney dysfunction in a black South African cohort, we conducted an association analysis using estimate glomerular rate (eGFR) as the phenotype. Identified variants were annotated and characterised. No variants remained statistically significant after correcting for multiple testing, likely due to the small sample size used. However, identified variants may still contribute to low eGFR levels, as variants in ZNF423, KLF4 and PXDN in the South African cohort are predicted to be damaging, and these genes have established roles in kidney dysfunction. These findings identify transcriptional regulators of PXDN in the kidney and highlight their potential roles in kidney dysfunction. Experimental validation and functional assays are required to confirm identified binding sites and determine the regulatory role of these TFs. While a PXDN variant was associated with low eGFR levels, larger-scale studies are required to confirm this association and further investigate its impact.National Research Foundation (NRF)WITS Postgraduate Merit AwardMMM202
Mitigating poverty to attain SDG 1 no poverty in South Africa Experiences of social relief of distress grant beneficiaries
No full textEmployee adoption of mental health interventions by employees in the South African workplace
No full textA research report submitted in fulfillment of the requirements for the Master of Business Administration, in the Faculty of Commerce Law and Management, Wits Business School, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, 2025The subject of mental health is currently trending in the global community as mental health conditions (MHCs), including stress, anxiety, insomnia, depression, and burnout, are a major cause of concern due to their negative impact on individuals or employees. These conditions can cause related physical health issues, including chronic illnesses like high blood pressure (hypertension) and common musculoskeletal issues, including neck or back pain. Affected employees may experience poor performance and low productivity, which can impact business profitability. Considering that people are a company’s best asset, organisations worldwide are placing more focus on employee well-being by providing interventions to improve employee engagement and productivity in the interests of the individual and to achieve their business goals. Mental health awareness (MHA) programmes have been implemented and widely publicised through government initiatives, while mental health promotion (MHP) is also conducted internally within organisations. Based on this study's results, most modern-day employees are informed on mental health, and the job demands-resources (JD-R) model indicates that they can be equipped with resources to overcome stressors through several interventions. This research aims to determine the mental health interventions (MHIs) that employees use to manage MHCs at a personal level in order to inform policymakers or HR practitioners of the acceptable and effective mechanisms for improving overall employee well-being. Interviews were carried out on a sample of eighteen participants drawn from the financial services industry in South Africa. Thematic analysis was used to review and interpret the data, leading to a conclusion and recommendations regarding the adoption of MHIs. The research results indicate that prayer or spirituality and exercise were the most utilised interventions, while the emergence of Artificial Intelligence (AI) is transforming mental health through futuristic technology like chatbots and digital gaming.MM202