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Local Banks and flood risk: the case of Germany
No full textThis paper uses a simulation model to evaluate the effects of river flooding events occurring within Germany on regional’ banks. Under a 1.5℃ increase in temperature, the impact is overall rather small, even accounting for the devaluation of loans exposed to floods. Specifically, climate related risks would increase bank losses by 0.1% with large variability across NUTS2 regions. However, under a 3℃ increase, bank losses increases up to 1% of total assets. We show that the implementation of adaptation solutions would be successful in keeping risks at the current level. By supporting adaptation initiatives, such as investing in climate-resilient infrastructure or providing financial services to support sustainable practices, banks can play a crucial role in building the resilience of the financial sector and reducing the overall impact on the economy.JRC.B.1 - Economic and Financial Resilienc
Enhanced simulation of gross and net carbon fluxes in a managed Mediterranean forest by the use of multi-sensor data
No full textThe current paper presents the last advancements introduced into a modelling strategy capable of simulating gross and net forest carbon (C) fluxes, i.e. gross and net primary and net ecosystem production (GPP, NPP and NEP, respectively). The simulation is performed by combining the outputs of a NDVI driven model, Modified C-Fix, and a bio-geochemical model, BIOME-BGC, taking into account the effects of forest disturbances. The proposed advancements are aimed at improving the model performance in managed Mediterranean forests and concern: i) the calibration of C-Fix GPP sensitivity to water stress; ii) the quantification of the green, woody and soil C pools which regulate the prediction of NPP and NEP. These two issues are addressed by the processing of additional remotely sensed datasets, i.e. low spatial resolution satellite imagery and high spatial resolution airborne laser scanner data. The original and modified model versions are tested in a Mediterranean pine forest which has been the subject of several investigations and where a new eddy covariance flux tower was installed at the end of 2012. This allows the assessment of the GPP and NEP estimates versus daily tower observations of eleven years (2013–2023), while mean stand NPP estimates are evaluated against measurements of current annual increments (CAI) taken in the pine forest. The results obtained support the capability of the proposed modifications to improve the model accounting for the major environmental factors which regulate the three C fluxes. The calibration of C-Fix, in particular, improves the reproduction of the high mean daily GPP observations consequent on the moderate ecosystem sensitivity to water stress (r2 increases from 0.87 to 0.91, whilst RMSE and MBE decrease from 1.65 to 1.04 and from −1.37 to −0.56 g C m−2 day−1, respectively). The quantification of the forest C pools enables the consideration of stand aging, which is decisive for the correct simulation of the relatively low NPP and NEP observations. The assessment of the final CAI estimates, in fact, yields a high accuracy (r2 = 0.653, RMSE = 1.38 m3 ha−1 y−1 and MBE = 0.42 m3 ha−1 y−1); the case is similar for the mean daily NEP estimates, which accurately reproduce the flux tower observations (r2 = 0.669, RMSE = 0.91 g C m−2 day−1 and MBE = 0.11 g C m−2 day−1).JRC.C.5 - Clean Air and Climat
JRC MARS Bulletin - Crop monitoring in Europe - May 2025 - Vol. 33 No 4
No full textSpring 2025 has been marked by a severe rainfall deficit in north-western Europe, with the Benelux countries, northern France, Germany, western and southern Poland, and Sweden experiencing one of the driest springs on record. This has raised concerns about crop yield expectations, particularly for winter and spring crops, while actual impacts have been observed locally only so far.
Meanwhile, the Iberian Peninsula, Italy, and Greece have benefited from abundant rainfall, resulting in positive yield expectations, particularly in Spain and Portugal, where yields are forecast to be 15-20 % above the five-year average. Adequate rainfall allowed lifting the concerns raised for Bulgaria and Romania in the April bulletin.
Sowings for grain maize, soybean, and spring barley are largely complete across Europe, even if initially delayed in Portugal and northern Spain due to excessive rainfall.
Actual impacts leading to below-average yield expectations for eastern Ukraine, Türkiye, western Maghreb and Cyprus.
Severe water deficit in north-western Europe challenges farmers and puts crop yields at risk
In the Benelux countries, northern France, Germany, western Poland and Sweden, the spring of 2025 was one of the driest in our records (since 1991), with most regions receiving only 0–50 % of the normal precipitation for the period analysed. Winter and spring crops are still in fair condition due to moderate temperatures; nevertheless, the first signs of drought impacts are becoming apparent, particularly as winter crops approach flowering. Where possible, farmers are irrigating crops, but winter and spring crops are likely to continue to suffer from limited rainfall and above-average temperatures, forecast for the coming weeks. In contrast, summer crops are less affected by the dry conditions, as their water demand is still relatively low, and field operations have benefited from the dry period. In Belgium, the western regions (West-Vlaanderen and Oost-Vlaanderen) are the most affected, and the impacts of drought are already visible. In Germany, negative impacts on crops have not yet been significant; however, they are likely to become more apparent in the coming weeks, which are projected to bring only limited precipitation, mostly in the north.
Dry weather causes concern in central and eastern Europe
There are concerns about dry weather in central (Poland, Czechia, Slovakia) and south-eastern Europe (Romania), although the rainfall deficit is less severe than in northern-western Europe, and substantial rain is forecast (Romania).
Early end to winter season in Cyprus: low yield expectations ahead
In Cyprus, the winter season has ended earlier than usual due to limited availability of water for crops in an already below-average growing season, resulting in lower-than-average yield expectations.
Excessive moisture and pest pressure cause concern in Tunisia
Minor concerns associated with overly wet conditions and pest pressure have been observed in Tunisia.
Below-average yield expectations in drought-stricken regions (eastern Ukraine, Türkiye and western Maghreb)
The impacts observed in eastern Ukraine, Türkiye and western Maghreb are attributed to a dry winter and/or spring period, resulting in unfavourable growing conditions for winter crops. Consequently, the yield expectations in those regions are below the five-year average.JRC.D.5 - Food Securit
Drought research priorities, trends, and geographic patterns
No full textDrought research addresses one of the major natural hazards that threatens progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals. This study aims to map the evolution and interdisciplinarity of drought research over time and across regions, offering insights for decision-makers, researchers, and funding agencies. By analysing more than 130 000 peer-reviewed articles indexed in SCOPUS from 1901 to 2022 using latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) for topic modelling, we identified distinct shifts in research priorities and emerging trends. The results reveal that plant genetic research for drought-tolerant genotypes and advancements in drought forecasting are the most dominant and continuously growing areas of focus. In contrast, the relative importance of topics such as ecology, water resource management, and forest research has decreased. Geospatial patterns highlight a universal focus on forecasting methods, with a strong secondary emphasis on policy and societal issues in Africa and Oceania. Interdisciplinarity in drought research experienced a marked decline until 1983, followed by a steady increase from 2007 onward, suggesting a growing integration of diverse fields. Emerging topics in recent years signal evolving priorities for future research. This analysis provides a comprehensive overview of drought research trends across sectors and regions, offering strategic guidance for aligning research efforts with drought resilience goals. The findings are crucial for research funding agencies and policymakers aiming to prioritize areas with the highest potential to mitigate drought impacts effectively.JRC.E.1 - Disaster Risk Managemen
Monitoring SMEs’ performance in Europe
Get PDFThe European Commission’s Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs (DG GROW), with the scientific support by the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC), assesses the Performance of Small and Medium Enterprises in Europe. We study performance across ten dimensions: (1) Entrepreneurship, (2) ‘Second chance’, (3), ‘Think small first’ and ‘Responsive administration’, (4) State aid and public procurement, (5) Access to finance, (6) Single market, (7) Skills and innovation, (8) Environment, (9) Internationalisation, and (10) Digitalisation.
This JRC technical report describes the underlying rationale for the quantitative measurement of these principles. It discusses the methodological approach to calculate how countries perform in the outlined principles. This takes into account the choice of the indicators, the data quality controls (including missing data and outliers), normalisation and weightings, and the statistical coherence and robustness checks of the SBA 2024 edition.JRC.S.3 - Science for Modelling, Monitoring and Evaluatio
JRC Modelling Hub
Get PDFUnlocking the potential of nuclear energy through integrated modelling and expertise.JRC.02 - Euratom Coordinatio
JRC Statistical Audit of the 2024 Network Readiness Index
No full textThis document contains the Statistical Audit of the 2024 Network Readiness Index (NRI) conducted by the European Commission’s Competence Centre on Composite Indicators and Scoreboards (COIN) at the Joint Research Centre (JRC). The NRI was first published in 2002 by the World Economic Forum as part of the Global Information Technology Report, and the present Statistical Audit is the fourth conducted by the JRC-COIN. The audit focuses on the statistical soundness of the multi-level structure of the index as well as on the impact of key modelling assumptions on the results. The findings confirm that the NRI 2024 is a reliable tool with a statistically coherent framework, which manages to adequately capture the multifaceted phenomenon of ICT deployment.JRC.S.3 - Science for Modelling, Monitoring and Evaluatio
The effects of intangibles on productivity and resilience during the green transition
No full textIntangible capital is a key driver of productivity growth, competitiveness and resilience. Unlike tangible investment such as machinery and equipment, investment in intangible assets, especially R&D, shows low sensitivity to adverse demand shocks. R&D intensive firms seem to be more resilient (higher employment) during crises and recover faster (higher productivity) afterwards. Productivity growth can contribute to decarbonisation, but in many instances productivity growth and decarbonisation lead to conflicting objectives, which needs to be addressed through policy action.JRC.B.6 - Industrial strategy, skills and technology transfe
China’s land carbon sinks: from improved estimates to opportunities for better management
No full textA recent wave of studies addressed China’s land carbon sink. This News and Views highlights how these studies begin to address two among the main challenges hindering the accurate and independent assessment of land use’s contribution to national climate targets, namely data quality for models the the definition of anthropogenic land CO₂ sinks.JRC.D.1 - Land and Climat
A Decade of 3D Laser Scanning for Design Information Verification: Lessons Learned from Onkalo
No full textSince 2014, 3D laser scanning has been utilized for Design Information Verification (DIV) activities at the Onkalo disposal facility for spent nuclear fuel in Finland. High-precision static laser scanners are used for initial verification of tunnel sections following excavation, with the 3D model being incrementally updated as construction progresses. Mobile laser scanning is subsequently used for re-verification, enabling efficient detection of changes in the tunnel’s current status relative to the reference model acquired using static scanning.
This paper presents a comprehensive overview of the past decade of DIV activities, outlining the generation of the final 3D model and discussing key results, implications, and recommendations for future applications.JRC.G.7 - Digital Systems for Safeguards and Non-Proliferatio