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AI evidence pathway for operationalising trustworthy AI in health: An ontology unfolding ethical principles into translational and fundamental concepts
Get PDFHealth, inherently rich in multi-modal data, could profit significantly from artificial intelligence (AI). Yet, adoption of AI in health remains challenging due to three key issues: (1) The “trust barrier”: while a plethora of documents based on AI (ethical) principles are available, there remains a significant interpretation gap between high-level desiderata and detailed actionable concepts. This hampers determination of both type and level of evidence that would render AI tools sufficiently trustworthy for adoption and integration into use contexts and environments. This is further complicated by the heterogeneous landscape of principles used by various organisations - despite robust evidence on a convergence towards ca 10 principles. (2) The “complexity barrier”: health is complex in terms of life cycle and value chains, involving specialised communities that need to develop and translate AI governance into pragmatic approaches that integrate up- and downstream life cycle stages in terms of evidence requirements. This requires networked thinking, forward-looking planning and bridging of disciplines and domains. However, out-of-domain literacy is typically limited, impeding effective collaboration for trustworthy AI. (3) The “technical barrier”: interoperability and infrastructure needs that may collide with the underfunding of health systems. To tackle these issues, we propose an ‘AI evidence pathway for health’ aimed at collaboration for evidence on trustworthy AI. The present ontology is its cornerstone. It lays out a pathway for evidence identification, using 10 consensus ethical principles which are unfolded into 42 high-level ‘translational concepts’ that branch into further 110 lower-level concepts (part A of the ontology). The translational concepts connect to 12 clusters of 179 fundamental socio-ethical, scientific, technical, and clinical concepts relevant for AI design, development, evaluation, use and monitoring (part B). Relationships between individual concepts are indicated throughout. The ontology defines user communities for AI innovation in health and outlines a comprehensive life cycle and value chain framework. We introduce the concept of “algorithm-to-model transition” to capture all decisions that may impact on benefits and risks of a model – throughout the life cycle and across value chains. The ontology embraces the benefit-risk ratio concept, emphasising the need for robust real-world evidence on possible benefits of AI tools. The concept descriptions are enriched by a total of ca. 900 publication references. The ontology provides an innovative and comprehensive knowledge resource to support the bridging of relevant actor communities and foster collaboration in view of ‘operationalising’ trustworthy AI in health.JRC.F.2 - Technologies for Healt
Multilayer Material System Analysis of wind turbines: correlation of stocks and flows in the EU of six metals and two drivetrain technologies
No full textProjections anticipate wind energy as the EU's primary electricity source by 2050. Despite EU leadership in wind power component manufacturing, heavy reliance on imported raw materials, many critical, poses challenges. Understanding wind turbine material cycles' connection to raw materials supply chains is limited, hindering efforts to establish a domestic supply chain. To address this gap, a Multilayer Material System Analysis (MMSA) is employed at the EU level, estimating flows and stocks of six metals (aluminium, copper, iron, manganese, neodymium, and nickel) in wind turbines, differentiated by drivetrain technologies. Five indicators, including self-sufficiency potential (SSP), were calculated for each metal and for wind turbines overall. In 2021, around 4100 kt of material entered the use phase, with 1130 kt leaving at end-of-life; 88 % due to component failures, and 12 % from decommissioning. Recycling processes recovered around 990 kt. Nickel, manganese, aluminium, and neodymium exhibit SSP values below 50 %, with Nd being particularly critical, resulting in a zero SSP and 100 % End-of-Life Downcycling Rate (EoL-DR). A comprehensive understanding of wind turbine value chains enables tailored policy measures to maximize product and component circularity, thereby prolonging material lifecycles. This study serves as a foundation for further analysis exploring the impacts of various circular strategies.JRC.D.3 - Land Resources and Supply Chain Assessment
Financial Absorption of Cohesion Policy Funds: How Do Programmes and Territorial Characteristics Influence the Pace of Spending?
No full textUsing data from the execution of 2014–2020 cohesion policy, this article presents a novel indicator to measure how fast European territories were able to spend their allocated budget and then explores the drivers of such financial performance. This analysis aims to fill a gap in scientific literature as most existing studies tend to focus solely on the total absorption at the end of the period without looking at the average financial performance over time. The article also explores the influence on financial absorption of the governance model (nationally or regionally managed programmes) and the thematic structure of the funds, which has never been done before. The determinants of the speed of financial absorption are investigated through a Tobit model. Results show that both programme-specific and territorial characteristics are relevant factors in explaining the varying levels of fund absorption. This suggests that increased flexibility in spending rules and the adoption of more tailored strategies could be instrumental in improving fund absorption.JRC.B.7 - Innovation Policies and Economic Impac
Economic assessment of GHG mitigation policy options for EU agriculture
Get PDFThe European Climate Law mandates the European Union’s climate neutrality objectives by 2050, aligning with the European Green Deal and interim greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets. The Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sectors play a crucial role due to their dual function in sequestering carbon and emitting GHGs. This report assesses the potential contribution of the AFOLU sectors to the EU's 2050 targets using CAPRI model scenarios. Recent model enhancements enable a more integrated analysis of GHG emissions and carbon removals, allowing for a detailed assessment of land-based mitigation options. The scenarios assess increased afforestation, sustainable forest management, protection of peatlands, and pricing of AFOLU GHG emissions and removals. Results indicate that reversing GHG emission trends requires significant action, particularly enhanced soil carbon sequestration and climate-smart agricultural practices. The protection of histosols and land conversion towards grassland and forest areas significantly increase carbon dioxide removals, while lower livestock and crop production reduce methane and nitrous oxide emissions. Policies strengthening forest protection and afforestation further enhance the carbon sink capacity of the AFOLU sectors, potentially achieving negative net emissions by 2050. However, it is important to note that emission leakage (i.e., increases in emissions outside the EU) could limit global net reductions.JRC.D.4 - Economics of the Food Syste
The Life Sciences sectors in the EU: drivers of economic growth and innovation
Get PDFLife sciences-related sectors play a vital role in addressing EU challenges, driving innovation in key areas like healthcare, biotechnology, and agriculture to enhance competitiveness, sustainability, and strategic autonomy. This policy brief examines the socioeconomic relevance, structure, and trends of Life Sciences sectors using three key economic indicators: employment, value added and R&D business expenditure. The analysis shows that Life Sciences sectors are crucial to the EU economy, accounting for 9.4% of GDP and employing 29 million people. These sectors have also driven economic growth in recent years, with increasing GDP contributions and job creation in productive sectors, and offer high growth potential and innovation capacity to address EU challenges.JRC.D.4 - Economics of the Food Syste
The Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Non-deferrable Diseases
No full textThe COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly disrupted healthcare systems globally, raising concerns about its impact on non-COVID19 patients requiring immediate and intensive cares. This paper investigates the effects of the pandemic on the quality of care for Acute Myocardial Infarction (AMI) patients in Lombardy, Italy. Taking advantage of rich administrative data (i.e. hospital discharges data, emergency call and mortality registry) and leveraging the national lockdown as an exogenous shock in a quasi-experimental framework, we estimate the causal effects of COVID-19 on in-hospital and out-of-hospital mortality rates and on changes in ambulance response time. Our results reveal a 63% increase in daily out-of-hospital deaths during the pandemic and significant delays, of average 11 min, in ambulance response times. In-hospital mortality remained stable, suggesting that delays in ambulance transport did not directly affect outcomes for patients who reached hospitalsJRC.S.3 - Science for Modelling, Monitoring and Evaluatio
EU-funded investment in Artificial Intelligence and regional specialization
No full textThe paper assesses the geographical distribution at NUTS2-level of European Union-funded investments related to artificial intelligence (AI) during the programming period 2014–2020. It also examines the relationship between this specialization pattern and regional characteristics using a spatial autoregressive model. The results show that in the period 2014–2020, around EUR 8 billion of EU funds were targeted for AI investments in the European regions. More developed regions have a higher specialization in AI EU-funded investments. This specialization also generates spillover effects that enhance similar specialization patterns in neighboring regions. AI-related investments are more concentrated in regions with a higher concentration of ICT activities and that are more innovative, highlighting the importance of agglomeration effects. Regions that have selected AI as an innovation priority for their Smart Specialization Strategies are also more likely to have a higher funding specialization in AI.JRC.B.7 - Innovation Policies and Economic Impac
Exploring rural energy poverty and needs
Get PDFIn the context of the European path towards carbon neutrality and energy resilience, this report investigates energy poverty in EU households and energy need challenges in the EU’s building stock, focusing on the vulnerabilities and opportunities for rural areas. Based on measures of consensual comfort levels, economic strain and dwelling energy efficiency from the Household Budget Survey and the EU Statistics on Income and Living Conditions, our results indicate that rural households could face higher levels of energy poverty. A high-resolution analysis of the building stock shows that rural areas feature higher residential building volumes per inhabitant and less compact shapes, which challenges their energy efficiency and increases heating needs. On the other hand, rural areas lead in energy efficiency improvements, and are particularly suited for the implementation of self-consumption renewable systems such as rooftop photovoltaics thanks to large roof areas per inhabitant and a high share of rural ownership (78% of owned dwellings). With rooftop PV, rural areas could potentially produce 2 200 kWh/inhabitant annually, 38% more than the average household electricity consumption in the EU.JRC.B.3 - Territorial Developmen
Biogeographical regions and climate change: lanternfishes shed light on the role of climatic barriers in the Southern Ocean
No full textTo predict the spatial responses of biodiversity to climate change, studies typically rely on species-specific approaches, such as species distribution models. In this study, we propose an alternative methodology that investigates the collective response of species groups by modelling biogeographical regions. Biogeographical regions are areas defined by homogeneous species compositions and separated by barriers to dispersal. When climate acts as such a barrier, species within the same region are expected to respond similar to changing climatic conditions, enabling the prediction of entire region shifts in response to future climate scenarios. We applied this approach to the Southern Ocean, which exhibits sharp climatic transitions known as oceanic fronts, focusing on the mesopelagic lanternfishes (family Myctophidae). We compiled occurrence data for 115 lanternfish species from 1950 onwards and employed a network-based analysis to identify two major biogeographical regions: a southern and a subtropical region. These regions were found to be distinct, with minimal overlap in species distributions along the temperature gradient and a separation around 8°C, indicating that temperature likely acts as a climatic barrier. Using an ensemble modelling approach, we projected the response of these regions to future temperature changes under various climate scenarios. Our results suggest a circumpolar expansion of the subtropical region and a contraction of the southern region, with the Southern Ocean becoming a cul-de-sac for southern species. Ultimately, our results suggest that when support is found for the climatic barrier hypothesis, community-level models from a ‘group first, then predict’ strategy may effectively predict future shifts in species assemblages.JRC.D.6 - Nature Conservation and Observation
Assessment of sea-floor integrity under the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive
Get PDFThe assessment of the sea-floor and benthic habitats of Europe’s seas is a requirement of the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) under the qualitative descriptor 6 (“Sea-floor integrity is at a level that ensures that the structure and functions of the ecosystems are safeguarded and benthic ecosystems, in particular, are not adversely affected”). Article 8 of the MSFD requires this assessment, while Commission Decision 848/2017 lays down the criteria and methodological standards for such an assessment. The guidance document #19 for the MSFD implementation provides an overview of the assessments under Article 8 for all the qualitative descriptors, while this report aims to give a more elaborated guidance for Descriptor 6, and provide supplementary information, with examples and proposed ways of handling data, using indicators, and agreed thresholds.
The assessment approach for sea-floor and benthic habitats is novel and not yet tested on the pan-European scale. Therefore, this report should be seen as an interim view of the marine benthic experts of the Technical Group on seabed habitats and sea-floor integrity (TG Seabed; the technical group established by the Member States and the European Commission under the MSFD Common Implementation Strategy).
This report provides supplementary information to the Article 8 assessment guidance document (European Commission, 2022) where:
— the physical pressures impacting the sea-floor and benthic habitats are defined,
— human activities causing such pressures are discussed,
— elements to be assessed are identified,
— assessment scales and marine reporting units are proposed,
— inter-relations with other MSFD criteria and other policies are identified and integration with them suggested,
— the agreed threshold values are presented, and
— approaches to address uncertainty are discussed.
In this report, TG Seabed has agreed on the general principles of the assessment of sea-floor and benthic habitats, such as pressure definitions, definition of adverse effects and necessary thresholds indicating good status. With these general principles, the coherence of the Member States assessments under Descriptor 6 will improve, and it is anticipated that many details will likely become clearer once good practices have accumulated from the upcoming assessments.
This report has been updated to integrate the latest developments under TG Seabed until December 2023, and thus includes references to the D6C4 and D6C5 threshold values proposed by TG Seabed and adopted by MSCG on 15 March 2023 and endorsed by Marine Directors on 4 June 2023.JRC.D.2 - Ocean and Wate