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Limiting Prices or Transferring Money? An ex ante assessment of alternative measures to cope with the hike in energy prices
No full textThe hike in energy prices across Europe in 2022 and 2023 led to significant government interventions. Several governments introduced ‘energy price cap’ measures to alleviate the increased burden on households’ expenditures. This paper presents an ex ante assessment of the expected distributional impact of the inflation surge and the cushioning effect of these price cap policies introduced in 2023 in Germany, the Netherlands and Austria. Our analysis combines macroforecasting techniques with microsimulation methods and shows that the inflationary shock of 2023 will more severely affect those households at the bottom of the income distribution. Our results also highlight that the price cap measures will only partly absorb the negative distributional consequences of the inflationary shock while it would completely offset the increase in energy poverty. Additionally, we show that simpler measures, such as lump-sum cash transfers, are more efficient (considering government’s budgetary costs) in cushioning the inequality-increasing effects of inflation, especially when such measures are targeted. Price caps, on the other hand, are more efficient in reducing energy poverty, given the non-negligible incidence of energy poverty in middle-income groups.JRC.B.2 - Fiscal Policy Analysi
Mortality and risk of cardiovascular diseases by age at retirement in three Italian cohorts
No full textThe relationship between age at retirement and subsequent physical health appears still contradictory in the literature, with more recent studies suggesting possible adverse health effects linked to employment at later ages. Aim of this study was to assess the long-term risk of overall mortality and incidence of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) associated with age at retirement in three large Italian cohorts using both survey and administrative data.
The risk of mortality and CVDs associated with age at retirement, kept continuous, was assessed separately for gender using age-adjusted Cox models, further controlled for chronic morbidity, education, socioeconomic and previous working characteristics. In another analysis, age at retirement was examined treating it as a dichotomous variable, comparing, in a set of analyses with age at retirement from 52 to 65 years, the incidence of the health outcomes among subjects who retired after a certain age, compared to those who retired up to that age.
Higher age at retirement was associated with significantly higher mortality among men in the three cohorts, while among women the association was not significant, although in the same direction as for men. The risk of CVDs was also significantly associated with higher age at retirement in all the datasets among men, and in two of them among women. The set of the analyses on age at retirement dichotomized confirmed the results based on continuous age at retirement for both genders. Several robustness analyses, including IV Poisson instrumental variable, confirm the validity of results for men, whereas female results were less stable and robust.
Policy makers should be aware of the risk for public health of policies that increase retirement age.JRC.S.3 - Science for Modelling, Monitoring and Evaluatio
Challenges for Governmental Venture Capital Institutions and Funds
Get PDFThis report provides an analysis of the current financial and techno-economic landscape in Europe,
with a specific focus on the role of public organizations investing in innovative companies. While the
primary focus is on equity-based instruments, the report addresses the interplay between equity
financing and complementary financial instruments, as well as factual challenges to put them into
practice. It contributes to the understanding of Europe’s complex funding landscape, particularly
from the angle of public funding bodies. It examines the mandate and activities of governmental
venture capital organizations within the broader venture capital ecosystem. Drawing on empirical
evidence, the report highlights key challenges faced by Governmental Venture Capital (GovVC)
initiatives and explores potential avenues for improvement. The report is sustained by the outcomes
of a workshop held in Seville that brought together experts and practitioners who share experiences
and best practices on government-backed initiatives.JRC.B.6 - Industrial strategy, skills and technology transfe
Preparing for biodiversity assessment: mapping invasive species’ introduction dates
Get PDFThis brief examines the first introduction events of 85 out of 88 invasive alien species of Union concern (IAS of UC) within the European Union (EU), highlighting the significant threats posed to biodiversity, the environment, economy, and human health. In alignment with Regulation (EU) No 1143/2014, which aims to mitigate risks through prevention, rapid eradication, and management, this analysis evaluates IAS trends in time and space to monitor the implementation of EU policies. The findings serve as a benchmark for assessing surveillance systems and commitments to global biodiversity targets, particularly the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework's Target 6.JRC.D.2 - Ocean and Wate
Harmonised rules for the calculation of the carbon footprint of photovoltaic modules in the context of the EU Ecodesign Directive
Get PDFThe decarbonisation of EU energy systems is critical to reach climate objectives in 2030 and 2050 as announced in the European Green Deal and, in this context, photovoltaics (PV) is called to have a prominent contribution, according to the REPowerEU plan.
In this direction, it is crucial to ensure that newly installed PV panel capacities in the EU are affordable and competitive, but also that they are manufactured in a sustainable manner.
The aim of this Science for Policy Report is to outline a set of harmonized rules for accounting the carbon footprint of PV panels, designed to be applicable in the regulatory context and in particular for the potential development of Ecodesign requirements (as in line with Directive 2009/125/EC for the Ecodesign of energy related products).
The harmonized rules proposed in the present report are based on the Environmental Footprint method developed by the European Commission (EC Recommendations 2279/2021) and the Product Environmental Footprint Category Rules (PEFCR) for PV. In particular, the PEFCR for PV have been used as pillar for building these harmonized rules with adaptations due to the application in a regulatory context.
The method has been the outcome of a consensus building process based on various positions from different stakeholders received at different stages.JRC.D.3 - Land Resources and Supply Chain Assessment
Assessing the impact of high energy prices on tourism in the EU
No full textIn this paper, we use the computable general equilibrium model JRC-GEM-E3 to assess how energy price shocks affect the tourism industry in the EU. The tourism sector itself is not particularly energy-intensive and thus the direct effect of higher energy prices likely is small. However, there are indirect effects that make the tourism sector sensitive to changes in energy prices. When energy prices increase, it forces households to spend a larger share of their budget on energy to fulfil their basic needs. Households then have less disposable income available to spend on luxury goods, and therefore cut purchases on goods and services with a high income elasticity, including tourism. Furthermore, purchases of tourism services often require transport services as a complement, and the increased price of transport services also affects the price of the bundle of the two services. The results suggest that relative output losses of the tourism sector can be larger than those of other more energy-intensive sectors because of these indirect effects.JRC.C.6 - Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transpor
AI4Peatlands
No full textOpen AI-ready datasets to detect peatland distribution under permanent grassland.JRC.D.5 - Food Securit
Behaviourally informed interventions to maximize environmental delivery under the new CAP green architecture
No full textA pre-registered online experiment with 1,745 European farmers in four countries tested if behaviourally informed interventions (BII) can increase participation in voluntary measures under the green architecture of the 2023–7 Common Agricultural Policy. We tested seven BIIs including framing (non)adoption as benefits (costs), framing the payment as compensation or reward and the provision of social norms both as stand-alone interventions or when combined. The results showed BII did not increase stated adoption for eco-schemes, but combining social norms with changes in payment framing or framing non-adoption as costs had a positive effect on agro-environmental and climate measure adoption.JRC.D.4 - Economics of Food System
Global, Regional, and National Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases and Risk Factors in 204 Countries and Territories, 1990-2023
No full textBackground
Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the leading cause of mortality and are among the foremost causes of disability globally. CVD burden has continued to increase in most countries since 1990, with trends driven by changing exposures to harmful risk factors, population growth, and population aging.
Objectives
We report estimates of global, national, and subnational CVD burden, including 18 subdiseases and 12 associated modifiable risk factors. We analyzed change in CVD burden from 1990 to 2023 and identified drivers of change including population growth, population aging, and risk factor exposure.
Methods
The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 study, a multinational collaborative research study, quantified burden due to 375 diseases including CVD burden and identified drivers of change from 1990 to 2023 using all available data and statistical models. GBD 2023 estimated the population-level burden of diseases in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023.
Results
CVDs were the leading cause of disability-adjusted life years and deaths estimated in the GBD. As of 2023, there were 437million (95% UI: 401 to 465 million) CVD DALYs globally, a 1.4-fold increase from the number in 1990 of 320 million (292 to 344 million). Ischemic heart disease, intracerebral hemorrhage, ischemic stroke, and hypertensive heart disease were the leading cardiovascular causes of DALYs in 2023 globally. As of 2023, age-standardized CVD DALY rates were highest in low and low-middle Socio-demographic Index (SDI) settings and lowest in high SDI settings. The number of CVD deaths increased globally from 13.1 million (95% UI: 12.2 to 14.0 million) in 1990 to 19.2 million (95% UI: 17.4 to 20.4 million) in 2023. The number of prevalent cases of CVD more than doubled since 1990, with 311 million (95% UI: 294 to 333 million) prevalent cases of CVD in 1990 and 626 million (95% UI: 591 to 672 million) prevalent cases in 2023 globally. A total of 79.6% (95% UI: 75.7% to 82.5%) of CVD burden is attributable to modifiable risk factors 347 million [95% UI: 318 to 373 million] DALYs in 2023). Globally, high systolic blood pressure, dietary risks, high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and air pollution were the modifiable risks responsible for most attributable CVD burden in 2023. Since 1990, changes in exposure to modifiable risk factors have had mixed effects on CVD burden, with increases in high body mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, and low physical activity leading to higher burden, while reductions in tobacco usage have mitigated some of these increases. Population growth and population aging were the main drivers of the increasing burden since 1990, adding 128 million (95% UI: 115 to 139 million) and 139 million (95% UI: 126 to 151 million) CVD DALYs to the increase in CVD burden since 1990.
Conclusions
CVD remains the leading cause of disease burden and death worldwide with the greatest burden in low, low-middle, and middle SDI regions. Large variation exists in CVD burden even for countries at similar levels of development, a gap explained substantially by known, modifiable risk factors that are inadequately controlled. The decades-long increase in CVD burden was the result of population growth, population aging, and increased exposure to a subset of risk factors led by metabolic risks. Countries will need to adopt effective health system and public health strategies if they are to progress in achieving global goals to reduce the burden of CVD.JRC.C.5 - Clean Air and Climat
The EAT–Lancet Commission on healthy, sustainable, and just food systems
No full textThe global context has shifted dramatically since publication of the first EAT–Lancet Commission in 2019, with increased geopolitical instability, soaring food prices, and the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbating existing vulnerabilities and creating new challenges. However, food systems remain squarely centred at the nexus of food security, human health, environmental sustainability, social justice, and the resilience of nations. Actions on food systems strongly impact the lives and wellbeing of all and are necessary to progress towards goals highlighted in the Sustainable Development Goals, the Paris Agreement, and the Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. Although current food systems have largely kept pace with population growth, ensuring sufficient caloric intake for many, they are the single most influential driver of planetary boundary transgression. More than half of the world’s population struggles to access healthy diets, leading
to devastating consequences for public health, social equity, and the environment. Although hunger has declined in some regions, recent increases linked to expanding conflicts and emergent climate change impacts have reversed this positive trend. Obesity rates continue to rise globally, and the pressure exerted by food systems on planetary boundaries shows no signs of abating. In this moment of increasing instability, food systems still offer an unprecedented opportunity to build the resilience of environmental, health, economic, and social systems, and are uniquely placed to enhance human wellbeing while also contributing to Earth-system stability.
This updated analysis builds upon the 2019 EAT–Lancet Commission, expanding its scope and strengthening its evidence base. The first Commission defined food group ranges for a healthy diet and identified the food systems’ share of planetary boundaries. In this Commission, we add an analysis of the social foundations for a just food system, and incorporate new data and perspectives on distributive, representational, and recognitional justice, providing a global overview on equity in food systems. Substantial improvements in modelling capacity and data analysis allow for the use of a multimodel ensemble to project potential outcomes of a transition to healthy and sustainable food systems.JRC.D.4 - Economics of Food System